Boston Bulldog

Kauai, probably not. Ni'ihau may catch the eyewall though

Took the words right out of my mouth. The quick wrapping of the core has me thinking HU intensity is not off the table yet.

If this thing can fire some diurnal convection it could go boom. Not a small ask with the dry air nearby however

Yeah the GFS short to medium term backoff was expected, though the later window for recovery and potential intensification north of the islands is real. Future Dolly has the cards stacked against it in terms of making it to that pocket however. The shear is very real, as well as decreasing RH. Basin tenor has been very hostile this year, it just seems so much more likely that this fragile system will dissipate with a whimper. Some classic survivor bias within ensemble intensity forecasts down the line, and even that has been reduced as we've seen downtrending across the board today. Most AI ensemble members don't even show a TC anymore!

95L needs to get it's act together fast if it wants steal a name

Better environment for the storms over the Berks to sustain themselves further east than last night’s complex. Couple more hours of solar support help too

Blocky look, but with that complexity we are still far away from any confidence in what that will actually look like in the second half of the week. Higher than normal probs of bad weather I guess

He's been living in The Hock this whole time!?

Torrential downpours in Boston. Tropical rates

Clouds and smoke during peak heating today… take the under on temps?

Bavi failed to go annular, but remains a monster of a storm

Bavi appears to be wrapping up a successful EWRC and is clearing out a massive eye. Watch for a run at sub 900mb with a near annular appearance if trends hold. Visually this thing looks like it wants to pull an Isabel

Wind shift incoming for KBOS. Looks like the new airmass is coming in from the southern boundary rising northward. Because of this I don’t think Logan will see a massive spike like it would if the coastal boundary broke earlier, but 92 could be challenged with the incoming SW winds

Yeah the "west fart" has been happening pretty consistently. Easterlies break down around 4-5pm and a quick spike follows. Easterlies broke down around 2:30 yesterday and KBOS spiked 6F in 5 mins. For enterprising folks looking to make a quick buck, this is a very gameable liquidity pattern on the prediction markets. Easterly winds tamp down temps, degenerate gamblers (or bots) who don't know what they're doing pump money into this suddenly interesting looking bracket of lower temps (higher temp positions gain much better pricing at the same time), then the west wind rug pulls 'em at the buzzer. These easterly winds rarely hold through sundown... dollars are being sold for 70-80c

Can’t lie, it’s been a long time since I’ve been so down on HU activity in the short and medium time scales. SSTs across the Tropical Atlantic, unfavorable subseasonal variability, ripping ENSO conditions, and general early season hostility are slamming the door shut on deep tropical development for the foreseeable future. The most recent lemon is a good example of what we can get until a lucky MJO-CCKW linkup occurs with more encouraging climatology… mediocre subtropical spin ups. Blah