StormchaserChuck!

What's really going on down there??

Actually, it would evolve pretty above average.

Yeah, that 4-6-month SOI was only matched by 2011 (apr 23.9), which was the Dec 2010 I keep comparing too, as a significant anomaly correlation to this last Winter. Then 1994 (reverse) 1994 4 -19.9 93,92,91 were all <-10 .. so we are reverse-early 1990s. Wierd because that was a 5-year subsurface El Nino, but surface was Neutral. we are + in the subsurface now, which does not match. Showdown I guess lol.

1940s into 1950s is the best match to now long cycle-wise. I really like the stretch actually from 1948-1951 as a pretty good matching event sequence.

As usual with these things, it's about a 60-70% match

+10QBO for May https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index

I like the general signal of -PDO/-NAO

The last few 30mbQBO-match Winter's https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.7 2.8 2.5 3.0 1.8 0.8 2.5 2.0 1.5

Let's see if we hit this pattern

It will neutralize the La Nina at least -PNA will cool the subsurface, but we should go +ENSO by August and September. Flirting around low-Weak El Nino for the Fall is still my guess.

Never hit -3

I don't know who pays attention, because there are like 2 posts on this forum a day, do different people see different things? The surface warming hasn't yet begun. I expect some Northern Hemisphere 500mb patterns when that does happen. There is a +3c bubble just below the subsurface.

one more.. SOI+anomaly evened out

It's been cooler than that.. July will probably be very +above average. I was also looking at this