I agree, I would go with a weak La Nina. It will be interesting to see what happens next in the subsurface, the CPC is forecasting a big +PNA. Maybe by early August we will be saying -0.5 as the ONI peak may be as far as we get.
Yeah, that's a good point. I was wondering if the highest arctic ice melt Summer since 2010 so far (this year) would help us for the Winter. My feeling is something like 2018 is a good analog, leading to Winter 18-19.