StormchaserChuck!

2019 and 2020 had a -NAO/-AO on July 27-Aug 6, but not years previous going back to 2013/2015 El Nino.. 1998 and 1997 had a +NAO/+AO.. last years fwiw

-4 on here would be a really big deal for an active season (time sensitive)

-3 now in the subsurface. Developing/becoming more negative ENSO coming for Hurricane season: 2020, 2016, 2011, 2010, 2007, 2005,2001 30-15-19-19-15-28-15

Just a really nice tripole developing

Some serious technology lol

^Love the cold pool off of New Foundland. North Atlantic is -NAO for Winter right now... interesting to see what happens.

I agree, I would go with a weak La Nina. It will be interesting to see what happens next in the subsurface, the CPC is forecasting a big +PNA. Maybe by early August we will be saying -0.5 as the ONI peak may be as far as we get.

Really nice La Nina coming forth.. I would like to see this strengthen a bit to predict some good SE and/or FL Hurricane hits.

More underperforming solar min ascending

Relative min's ascending fwiw

We are not average or below average with the -PNA like that.. the ocean streams are much north or something.

Yeah, that's a good point. I was wondering if the highest arctic ice melt Summer since 2010 so far (this year) would help us for the Winter. My feeling is something like 2018 is a good analog, leading to Winter 18-19.

we are either going to flood the Earth a little bit or get drier and drier.. I'm rooting for the first option. July 2018 was pretty cool, 18"

I also feel that it is connected to the Sun, That is why next years progression should be interesting. Wouldn't rule out another March-May warming like this year.

Yeah, a lot of my analogs showed a trough/weakness in the GOM and SE for hurricane season.