StormchaserChuck!

I was thinking raindance knows some good relevant Winter correlations to major snowfall early this far south.. it's been a great localization experience.

I haven't looked, but I think it comes in around -0.60 for Dec-Mar......... I think it will bust.

Oct -NAO to Nov +NAO is +NAO for the Winter 60% of the time.

I just don't see signs for a SE-ridge. That would mean the pattern is more than weak.

I would say the NAO difference is within random error range.

Never seen 75% on the CPC's 3-month Winter before. (edit: that was before). Weak-weather.gov continues to play behind on the most basic weather-observation sense.. I doubt the NW will verify this Winter.

meh, I'm not really impressed by this

It actually warmed up significantly to positive

I found a better correlation to May-Sept SSTs in the NOrth Atlantic, vs actual NAO. It was like 0.75 vs 0.58. It hasn't worked the last Winter though so...

2 weeks from now is different from now, arctic sea ice extent pattern. That one doesn't get to 100dm anywhere anyway.

Jet stream is just too far north. It would take a miracle.

I feel like it's all digital snow at this point-what's that 2 years since 11/15/18 with like 5" of snow (0" last Winter)?

Intuitively, the modeled strengthening Nina doesn't correlate to other things. We'll see, I guess. Even if the Nina strengthens, my guess is there will be lack of -PNA-strong, or PNA descending.

I really hate the setup, October NAO is inversely correlated to the Winter. Then we have a 3-part ridge over the Arctic circle and northern gulf of alaska too. Ugly imo.