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About JetsPens87

  • Birthday 05/07/1987

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  1. Light rates especially in the urban areas will have a hard time if this comes during the day.
  2. I dunno whatever they did to that model really scaled back it’s deadliness. And I certainly agree that even the EPS are really just a multi-variate solution of the OP solution at this point rather than a display of different perturbations of solutions.
  3. Boy those GEFS look really solid. Though I would prefer a one wound up low solution, there are ways that this can happen with a multi-wave solution.
  4. I believe I do actually recall Don posting something last year showing that the PNA is almost negligible in terms of snowfall this time of year, or at least much less of a factor than in Dec/Jan.
  5. Also in my opinion the PNA is much less of a factor this time of year because of significantly shorter wavelengths.
  6. Snowmaps are even more useless with this one than any of the others. Yet I guarantee that many will be posting them religiously when they show two feet of snow. Id lean towards the snow DEPTH maps in this situation and in any marginal event as they have done much better throughout the month of March over any 10 to 1 or to a lesser extent the Kuchera method maps.
  7. Still believe that this comes north, I have a hard time buying into a southern slider with a rising NAO, of which many of our large storms have come on the heels of. This is an extremely complex setup with tons of energy (just take a look at that 500) that the models are having a terribly difficult time sorting out. Expect more run to run jumps even more so than we have seen with other events this year.
  8. JetsPens87

    March 2018 Model Discussion

    This can easily be done with two lows.
  9. JetsPens87

    Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    http://wintercast.tripod.com/ i found a link scrolling through the old skeleton site that took me to this, still looks like there is not much there tho!
  10. JetsPens87

    March 2018 Model Discussion

    That’s okay though many of our big storms have come on the heels of dip in the NAO as it heads back towards neutral or positive.
  11. JetsPens87

    Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    K we get it you hate snow
  12. Topped out at 81 on the nose in Pburg yesterday at the PWS. Currently 41 and rain... Denver says hello
  13. Yup Bluewave pointed it out perfectly. In addition to that the risk we run in this pattern is low pressure where you typically want high pressures pressing in over southeast Canada. Most storms could pull a return flow from the SE or ESE. However the 50/50 low can aid in ensuring mid level cooling. This is all evident in a nutshell with the upcoming potential this weekend. Clearly shows that we can and theoretically will produce something in this pattern but the key is assistance from the Atlantic now.
  14. Yup just when the Atlantic finally looks like it may go favorable after how many seasons (predominantly)... the Pac goes to sh*take mushrooms.
  15. JetsPens87

    February 2018 Model thread

    The bigger problem I see in all this is high pressure is beginning to push down into the central US instead of into SE Canada like when we had the stronger EPO blocking and Positive PNA. Without those, the HP can’t press into SE Canada. Of course, well timed anything can find a way to produce but in the grand scheme of things it’s like we went from rolling a dozen die hoping for snake eyes to rolling two die hoping for the same.