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NEG NAO

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About NEG NAO

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KEWR
  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Location:
    Central NJ
  • Interests
    Weather Analysis and Forecasting

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  1. NEG NAO

    March, 2019

    I have my doubts about reaching 70 after mid month - if so it will be very brief - prior to a cold front as an example - the AO is going neg. after mid month and the PNA is going positive
  2. NEG NAO

    March, 2019

    don't be too quick to say we will come up short of seasonal averages - that is still to be determined as there are indications that after next weeks milder pattern - winter returns with below normal temps starting around the 17th -18th and also the chance of more snow events around here in the following week or 2 at least as the AO goes negative.
  3. NEG NAO

    March, 2019

    The regular GFS is even worse - that's why they are trying to replace it...…...actually most models have their own flaws and none of them is anywhere near perfect ……..
  4. NEG NAO

    March, 2019

    and I am sure you can calculate how much sleet will fall point being it shows it will be snowing - it didn't drop it
  5. NEG NAO

    March, 2019

    Wrong - The GFS - Para didn't drop it
  6. NEG NAO

    March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

    Mt. Holly still sticking with 5 - 8 inches in warning area at 3:17 PM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 317 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2019 NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-040830- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190304T1200Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON- MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER- WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEWTON, WASHINGTON, MORRISTOWN, FLEMINGTON, SOMERVILLE, NEW BRUNSWICK, TRENTON, JIM THORPE, STROUDSBURG, READING, ALLENTOWN, BETHLEHEM, EASTON, HONEY BROOK, OXFORD, WEST CHESTER, KENNETT SQUARE, COLLEGEVILLE, POTTSTOWN, NORRISTOWN, LANSDALE, CHALFONT, PERKASIE, MORRISVILLE, AND DOYLESTOWN 317 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2019 ..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY * WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND EAST CENTRAL, NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. * WHEN...UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN ABOUT 5 PM AND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE SNOW WILL END BEFORE THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE, HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE OCCURRING FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.
  7. NEG NAO

    March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

    Dewpoints low-mid 20's north jersey should be a limited rain at beginning NJZ001-105-106-008-010-013-015-019>022-104-032100- NEW JERSEY CITY SKY/WX MP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS NEWARK/LIBERTY CLOUDY 42 24 49 SE8 30.03F TETERBORO CLOUDY 42 23 46 S6 30.01F CALDWELL CLOUDY 41 24 51 SE7 30.02F SOMERVILLE CLOUDY 41 27 57 VRB5 30.01F LINDEN CLOUDY 41 23 49 S7 30.03F PERTH AMBOY N/A 37 N/A N/A E14 N/A WCI 29 SUSSEX CLOUDY 39 23 52 CALM 29.99F ANDOVER N/A 39 22 50 VRB6 29.99F WCI 35 TRENTON CLOUDY 43 30 60 S6 30.02F MILLVILLE CLOUDY 42 30 62 SE9 30.02F ATLANTIC CITY PTSUNNY 40 34 79 E8 30.03F WCI 34 WRIGHTSTOWN PTSUNNY 42 30 63 SE9 30.00 TOMS RIVER PTSUNNY 41 31 67 SE9 30.05F BELMAR CLOUDY 39 26 59 SE8 30.05F WCI 33
  8. NEG NAO

    March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

    probably one of those situations where once the precip rates decrease near the end many experience drizzle/light rain
  9. NEG NAO

    March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

    how about the rest of the column ?
  10. NEG NAO

    March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

    Many Tornado and Severe Tstorm warnings in Georgia , Alabama, Florida https://kamala.cod.edu/svr/
  11. NEG NAO

    March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

    in there earlier AFD they mentioned they might issue a watch for NYC if the guidance indicates the need - I think at the least they will issue and advisory and then tomorrow morning possibly a watch if guidance indicates the need.... "NEW YORK CITY, LONG ISLAND, AND SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON COUNTIES WERE LEFT OUT, WITH SNOW TOTALS MARGINAL. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON WHERE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW OCCUR THESE REGIONS MAY ALSO REACH WARNING CRITERIA AND THE WATCH MAY BE EXPANDED LATER.
  12. NEG NAO

    March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

    not that much different then the 12Z CMC
  13. NEG NAO

    March, 2019

    What a GEM !
  14. NEG NAO

    March, 2019

    I guess I can expect my usual dusting?
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