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NEG NAO

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About NEG NAO

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    https://twitter.com/WXNJ

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KEWR
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Middlesex County NJ
  • Interests
    Weather Analysis and Forecasting

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  1. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    Another: "Who cares about the guidance right now. I know the pattern and I think it will trend south and colder. We have seen this many times with blocking regimes. " "Looks like PB and I are the only ones who think this storm might not done be done trending south. "
  2. No doubt New England is the most favorable spot for any frozen out of the later week storm ??? no one is saying there won't be a storm - BUT you didn't answer my question about anyone except you and other non - Mets predicting any frozen in NYC - which guidance is entertaining your idea ? Sure storm might end up developing further south off the Del Marva but with very little cold enough air available the wind flow will be off the warmer then normal Atlantic Ocean in a long stretch. Will be hard to get much dynamic cooling here is the storm starts drifting east - southeast and weakening as some guidance is suggesting
  3. There is no indication that this will be anything other then rain for the immediate NYC metro - show me anybody who is forecasting frozen . Also I am beginning to have my doubts as to whether we get anything more then a cheap thrill from this upcoming pattern in regards to snowfall in the immediate NYC metro - north and west might be another story...…...
  4. so you are saying NYC gets snow with storm # 1 ?
  5. I think the big story with this setup is going to be the coastal flooding and high winds which has the potential to cause as much damage as some hurricanes - example 1962 - just about wiped out Long Beach Island NJ which was much less developed then - if that same storm happens again down there in 2018 the $ amount in damage will be very high
  6. Because its early March doesn't matter - don't need dynamic cooling in each storm in March if a cold HP to the north is sending in cold enough air at all levels of the atmosphere - this setup unfolding doesn't have that cold HP to the north - YET - question is will it develop while a storm develops under the block next week - the so called 2nd storm and possibly a 3rd - the HP that doesn't escape too soon is just as important as the storm itself
  7. I don't think its going to be all rain in the higher elevations north and west of NYC and how the second system reacts to the block will depend on which track the first system takes which is still unknown
  8. I don't think the models have a handle yet on the details of these systems since this is a rather unique setup - you can't be sure exactly where the colder air will be available or where the precip field will set up
  9. For NYC as of today I would say 50 % chance Combination - 30 % Rain - 20 % Snow - what does everyone else think ? Percentage total has to equal 100
  10. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    along with "torch" which someone here keeps saying will happen mid March
  11. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    Probably will be a heavy rain to start and then the dynamic cooling will start drawing the colder air down to the surface and the second half of the storm will be a heavy wet snow in many areas but this depends on the exact track and positioning of the storm ……...
  12. have to consider the psychology of this forum - if they don't get theirs it doesn't matter or count what others got
  13. that really does not look like a crazy solution and is one that has to be kept of the table - sometimes the GFS will show a solution it quickly loses in the extended then it reappears on other models down the road
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