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NEG NAO

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KEWR
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  • Location:
    Central NJ
  • Interests
    Weather Analysis and Forecasting

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  1. sort of what like happened during the November storm in many areas - if there is an analog storm it MIGHT be this one BUT that all depends if there is an extended period of freezing rain in some locations and also if a dry slot develops for some areas - all of which is impossible to determine this far out . Also IMO this storm might require significant adjustments in snow total forecasts during the event in some areas to be determined later.
  2. its impossible to say which model is going to be closest with snow accumulations at this point
  3. I wouldn't discount any of those accumulation map forecasts that are showing larger accumulations - it didn't work for the November storm when many folks were cutting the numbers saying they weren't possible - really surprised Upton is forecasting such low totals - think they would have learned their lesson already after the November fiasco. SATURDAY PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. SATURDAY NIGHT SNOW. SLEET, RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. SUNDAY FREEZING RAIN. RAIN AND SLEET IN THE MORNING, THEN SLEET AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING, THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 BELOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
  4. Its almost @Rjay time and his new subscription for the UKIE
  5. I would say that analyses stays on the table - as a possible outcome
  6. so if they are garbage - what actually happens in your opinion ? Also can you slow that down ?
  7. why don't you start posting maps - not 12 inches near the city
  8. anything and everything in no particular order is still on the table for NYC and the immediate suburbs - confidence for areas farther north and west for mostly frozen is increasing.
  9. Upton has thrown in the towel - we were fooled again at the beginning of the week …... SO ALONG THE COAST BEGAN AS ALL RAIN WITH A BRIEF POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS IN. AGAIN, THERE IS NO BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND NO COLD AIR DAMMING. HOWEVER, THERE IS A TREND TOWARD MORE PHASING OF SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE. WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. MAINLY A RAIN EVENT, EXCEPT WELL INLAND.
  10. Euro should be interesting...….DR. NO OR YES ?
  11. sounds like a redevelopment track
  12. at night you won't get the same type of cooling so temps will be warmer without snow cover - also I was talking mainly about the look and feel of it with bare ground as opposed to snow cover
  13. without snow cover here that severe cold will not be as severe and will not look or feel that bad....
  14. only reason I mentioned that is Walt Drag did and is considering it ……….
  15. only question now is will there be frozen at the end of this ?
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