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NEG NAO

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About NEG NAO

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KEWR
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  • Location:
    Central NJ
  • Interests
    Weather Analysis and Forecasting

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  1. NEG NAO

    April 7-8 2018 jinx

    if all the pieces fall into place during the next week could become the all time snowiest April but that's still less then a 50/50 chance as of today IMO
  2. NEG NAO

    April 7-8 2018 jinx

    this cool weather sure isn't slowing down the grass from turning green and beginning to grow - hedges and other shrubbery are beginning to show their buds and growing - the above average precip the last month has helped
  3. NEG NAO

    April 7-8 2018 jinx

    agreed 100 % can't throw in the towel till 12 hours or less out - models have been doing this all winter long...........have to wait till the energy crosses the rockies to begin to get a good handle on the strength of the cold intrusion vs. the wave tracking through the plains and then eastward
  4. NEG NAO

    April 2nd Snow Wave

    true if most of it was falling in daylight hours past 10 a.m. but unless its delayed most will have fallen already - with any intensity all surfaces will be covered ............Reference - April 7, 2003 and that fell between about 8:30 a.m. to early afternoon with temps near 32
  5. why ? ratio's have a good chance of being below 10:1 during at least part of the storm and also have to consider in any sleet that manages to fall in certain areas
  6. 18Z GEFS is basically the same as 12Z = not much precip north of Monmouth County NJ
  7. according to Upton its going to be all snow SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THERMAL PROFILES AND SURFACE WETBULB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MAINLY/IF NOT ALL SNOW.
  8. and they will probably stick with that forecast until tomorrow but it now looks like this has the potential to be a historic snowstorm for the second half of March
  9. its probably not accurate yet anyways but things are looking more optimistic with that run - if this follows the seasonal pattern the trend will be further north and west in future runs ...
  10. Temps below freezing Wed AM - looking like both waves will be mostly frozen if they make it this far north and west
  11. 1st wave is a few miles north of 18Z - Snow makes it up to about Rt 78 in NJ
  12. EPS members closer to the coast
  13. these solutions are going to keep changing until the models decide what to do with wave 2 - which is 4 + days away
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