NEG NAO

storm is still being blocked from moving fast enough away from us because of the strong blocking the last few days so it is weakening and spinning itself out more or less - beginning to wonder if the clouds will still be lingering tomorrow especially in the northern and eastern areas of the region - this satellite image is not encouraging - this will have an effect on high temps

As of now I agree some locations in the region will reach 85 or higher Friday afternoon - the 850 temps are several degrees above normal and in front of the cold front winds will be from the southwest - BUT if that cooler air speeds up and makes it here earlier in the day then expected temps won't max out so high - when you are 4 days away from an event always good to keep your options open - also how much cloud cover in advance of the front ?

just look at the radar - at 2:50 there is a large band of moderate to heavy precip heading towards the metro from the southeast over the Atlantic that will add at least a couple inches to the totals in Central NJ if it holds together

skies are brightening in Seaside Heights NJ not far from the center Seaside Heights Cam - North View earthcam.com/usa/newjersey/seasideheights/?cam=seasideheights2 -south view

Not exactly a beach day - although people complained they lost some of their view of the ocean from the boardwalk building that Dune Barrier after Sandy destroyed the Seaside Heights boardwalk was a very good idea

The HRRR-Euro and NAM have a break in the precip for several hours late Saturday especially west of NYC - in other words there probably will not be steady precip the entire event

starting on eastern long island already BUT the storm is outside the benchmark and crawling will have to make a move westward - might have showers much later tonight around NYC and eastern NJ metro GOES-EAST US PSeUdo-Color LOOP

2-3 inches in immediate NYC metro if the Euro is correct is not alot of rain - we had more than that in several thunderstorms in the summer in a few hours - apparently ground conditions regarding saturation is much different region wide here in north central NJ ground is dry as a bone currently

the rainfall amounts are of no concern in the immediate metro its the flooding on the coast that is the main concern and also the wind BUT without a saturated ground - less chance of up rooted trees just branches falling

also on EURO heaviest rain is offshore and in southeast New England

this proves my point from a few posts above that models at 12Z are all over the place 12Z Euro way south coming inland - low is getting vertically stacked and weakening too

heavy rain is in eastern PA where its not supossed to be

yeah post it 12Z euro just started running on Tidbits and Pivitol

50 miles makes a big difference especially for my area in north central NJ

I posted 3 different 12Z models 2 posts above to prove my point - now its your turn to prove yours

12Z models are all over the place with the exact tracks and timing and when and where the most intense part of the system is possibly going to make a left turn into the coast - many more questions than answers for any particular area of the region as of this afternoon. All that is certain is there is going to be flooding and high winds up and down the coast - rainfall amounts are the biggest question mark - along with the highest wind locations several miles inland especially.

12Z Canadian is dry west of Long Island- except some wrap around showers on the back end - HP at first is weaker and further west near Lake Superior allowing the storm to get a few miles west of the GFS

bring your surf board

12Z GFS is a complete miss to the east - very little precip west of Long Island 12Z Icon is an impactful storm for most of the metro - moderate to heavy rain The reason for the difference is the placement of the HP in Canada - the HP on the Icon stays north of the storm blocking it into the coast - HP on the GFS is northwest of us in south Canada - not blocking the storm movement to the north and preventing it from getting too close to the coast One constant is the strong winds - wouldn't be surprised if there are high wind warnings issued

only 12Z (yesterday) and 0Z map posted - regardless as of now all the significant impact will be from Long Island up into eastern New England regarding precip totals - wind and coastal flooding will have a high impact along the coast all the way down through the mid Atlantic region

how do you define great ? It has less then 1 inch west of the Hudson for the most part

what are you talking about ???? the 0Z EPS trended east with heavier precip from its 12Z yesterday run !!