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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    really ? how cold do the surface temps need to be for higher ratio's ?
  2. NEG NAO
    and this doesn't fully take into account 12 - 15:1 ratio's
  3. NEG NAO
    High Ratio's should be in the wording too IMO 12 -15:1
  4. NEG NAO
    many were saying the same thing in reverse ( favoring the northern areas) for yesterdays event at this same range 3 days out......
  5. NEG NAO
    which depends on where thursday night front sets up shop south of us with the LP on late friday into saturday riding along it
  6. NEG NAO
    yes in that range lower in some areas
  7. NEG NAO
    This probably doesn't fully take into account the higher snow ratios this time around - just like yesterdays clown map output didn't take into account the lower ratio's this storm will have at least 12:1 ratio and possibly as high as 15:1 in some areas
  8. NEG NAO
    Thursday nights frontal system passage with much colder air following helps set up potential few inches of snow here late friday night into saturday also higher ratios this time around more then 10:1. Where this front sets up and the path of the LP along it will determine where the heaviest snow falls just north of the track
  9. NEG NAO
    have to consider that snow ratio's will be much higher then yesterdays storm probably in the range of 12 - 15 :1. So don't need as much precip too accumulate since it begins in a colder air mass then yesterday
  10. NEG NAO
    still chance of this moving further north with more snow here - NAM is not in its most accurate range yet........
  11. NEG NAO
    You are discounting all of the other possibilities - this what led several folks here to be wrong about this past event saying things like "no accumulations" and rain up to I-84 - I agree with what Walt said earlier " Caution on tossing the towel before 2/25. I do think we will warmup big time the first few days of March, if not around 2/28-29. BUT... weeklies seem optimistic about multiple qpf opportunities in March. We'll know I think at 4PM Friday when the updated March monthly posts from CPC. In the meantime, minor minor Thu night. Will re review at 530PM for a 1-4" refresher thread NJ-LI portion of the forum, so snow starve. Looks too me like a nice colder consistency Saturday morning. 2/22-24 is on... no thread but pretty sure large winter storm then. Probably a little too warm here, but maybe not, so keep monitoring the ensembles/ops reading up."
  12. NEG NAO
    the scientific evidence you included in this post supports that idea.........
  13. NEG NAO
    need the track to pass south of us near the Del Marva and the best snows are 50 -75 miles north of the 850 lp usually - even though temps are borderline the next couple of weeks are a snowstorm pattern here - HP to the north storm tracks just south and east of here
  14. NEG NAO
  15. NEG NAO
    which would be close to todays totals in many areas BUT since it is a weekend folks won't take it that seriously since many schools and businesses are closed...
  16. NEG NAO
    There is an upside possibility for Saturdays event as of now. As usual the track and speed of the system are key and it is a positive that the track is south of us and various features aloft support an expansive area of moisture far north of the track......
  17. NEG NAO
    I think many realize now that there can be snowstorms in mild patterns after what happened today......
  18. NEG NAO
    I guess there will be no storm thread for this Saturday - probably a good idea since this last storm thread for todays storm was a mess for obvious reasons.......
  19. NEG NAO
    Mt. Holly just had a forecast update at 1 A.M. and still going with little or no accumulation in my area - these updates done by Humans ? ZFP from KPHI (cod.edu)
  20. NEG NAO
    8 -12 is now south of 78 and or 80
  21. NEG NAO
    Try 36 hours out
  22. NEG NAO
    Euro = 12.8 for my area - Mt. Holly forecast = Little or No Snow Accumulation - can't make this stuff up....
  23. NEG NAO
    maybe BUT will be interesting nowcasting Tuesday morning using radar........
  24. NEG NAO
    surprise potential is high along with the bust potential with this storm IMO since no one seems to have a handle on it yet...more questions then answers so far
  25. NEG NAO
    and what happens if the storm stalls or slows down.......?
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