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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    GFS is the outlier right now amongst most models and it handles the southern energy historically poor as opposed to the EURO -GFS flattens things out because of all of this and hence out to sea - all at this range but probably will come to its senses as we get closer to the event
  2. NEG NAO
    as of right now the timing for the immediate NYC metro is snow develops sometime after midnight Thursday and tapers off sometime in the mid- late evening Thursday and ends close to midnight so close to a 20 -24 hour event - lets see if there are any timing changes and or duration changes as we get closer and closer to showtime............BTW this is according to the 0Z Euro
  3. NEG NAO
    everyones favorite analogs for this one so far ?
  4. NEG NAO
    question now is what will the ratio's be ?
  5. NEG NAO
  6. NEG NAO
    as good as it gets on 0Z Euro
  7. NEG NAO
    that equals Blizzard conditions inland especially even NYC and metro and also eventual mixing issues central / south Jersey right along the coast especially and eastern LI
  8. NEG NAO
    as I mentioned last night NJ coast and eastern LI mixing issues if too strong and close to the coast - similar to Jan '96 - but of course lower snow totals here for the most part than '96
  9. NEG NAO
    18Z ? Got Graphics ?
  10. NEG NAO
    I wouldn't forecast snow likely on Thursday 6 days out because there is a possibility there could be a timing change - especially if it is a 2 part storm as Walt has suggested ......I would just leave it at a 40 or 50% chance for now
  11. NEG NAO
    it says the 18Z and 6Z are less skillful so thats why many METS discount them.........
  12. NEG NAO
    other METS say that is a common error the GFS makes - you don't agree ? Also what is your opinion about Upton and Mt. Holly forecasting "snow likely" for Thursday ?- so far out........
  13. NEG NAO
    18Z uses same data from 12Z no big surprise
  14. NEG NAO
    6 days in advance ? lots can go wrong why do you think Walt is playing it conservative ? Also Mt. Holly shows likely so they probably had a conference call with Upton
  15. NEG NAO
    How often do you see the words "Snow Likely" in a forecast 6 days in advance ? ZFP from KOKX
  16. NEG NAO
    wouldn't that lessen the impact and open the door to mixing changeover issues in parts of the region? the December 5-6 , 2003 storm was 2 parts so could it be similar to this ? Snow and ice storm, December 5-6, 2003 - Storm Summary
  17. NEG NAO
    plus isn't the GFS OP just considered another ensemble member ?
  18. NEG NAO
    Don't worry Walt we won't blame you if things go wrong ! LOL
  19. NEG NAO
    exactly !
  20. NEG NAO
    I would favor the CMC as of right now because the GFS OP was a complete miss too drastic a change in a few hours and its the worst performing model of the bunch - see if the GEFS agrees
  21. NEG NAO
    what is causing the lower amounts on the individual members ? Too far east ? Mixing ?
  22. NEG NAO
    if this gets too close to the coast and deepens there will be the possibility of mixing issues along Jersey coast and eastern LI - happened during the Jan 96 Blizzard I remember when I lived in Northern Ocean County NJ......probably in other stronger events also......
  23. NEG NAO
    just review some of the threads from the big storms here such as Boxing Day 2010 and the Jan 23rd 2016 storm and so on and see how close we were to figuring it out along with the guidance a week away...we weren't close to a final solution that far out
  24. NEG NAO
    seems like most guidance is suggesting the surface LP will make it to this LAT and the only question is how close to the coast will it be which will be determined by a number of factors but a negatively tilted trough would help .........
  25. NEG NAO
    IMO should be considering the 250mb jet stream which on last nights GFS was just north and over us which means there is room for the surface LP to move north - also shouldn't be taking these OP runs surface LP locations at face value right now.......
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