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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    Nobody listened to me a couple days ago when I said to "curb your enthusiasm" and I got stuck with 11 weenies
  2. NEG NAO
    Canadian not a total miss but lighter snow
  3. NEG NAO
    Totally Suppresed on 0Z GFS
  4. NEG NAO
    Winter Storm Watch issued for Saturday Night into Sunday NYC Metro WSW from KOKX
  5. NEG NAO
    which will keep it all snow in NYC
  6. NEG NAO
    Too close for comfort this far out - for this too work for the NYC immediate metro the LP has to slide west to east south of the Mason-Dixon Line
  7. NEG NAO
    1-3 sounds good as of now -still say if it turns to rain or is sunny close to freezing or above for a couple days before the mid week event NYC metro will melt again -- what do you think ?
  8. NEG NAO
    of course anytime there is precip around the north colder environment is always favored for frozen - what I was downplaying was the immediate NYC metro and points slightly west ( eastern essex / passaic / union and east and south of the city
  9. NEG NAO
    lol - should have listened to me yesterday when I got all those weenies for downplaying todays and the weekend event - Shouldn't be using the Mesoscale NAM yet.......
  10. NEG NAO
    should only consider the NAM up to 60 hours after that it is less reliable - in fact maybe only 48 hours demonstrated by how it performed a couple of days out for todays event
  11. NEG NAO
    The problem with NAM is on Tuesday it was also showing several inches for todays (Thursdays) event and as it got closer and closer that amount dwindled down to an inch or 2 which ended up a dusting for many of us closer to NYC
  12. NEG NAO
    I am still going with this 11 Weenie post attached I made yesterday which was only for NYC and local suburbs NOT Northern and Western suburbs - have just a light dusting here with a little icy slush on the east side of the Union/Middlesex County in NJ and temp is about 33 degrees now and forecasted to stay above freezing through daytime tomorrow last forecast I saw - so bare ground for the start of the weekend event which could end up similar to this one .........
  13. NEG NAO
    I am still going with this idea - Uptons forecast supports it
  14. NEG NAO
    most of what falls tonight into tomorrow will be melted in and around NYC local suburbs before Saturday night - Sunday which looks like whatever snow falls will melt before what ever falls mid week next week -- curbing my enthusiasm on this entire stretch...........because it appears to be a carbon copy of the last few events but milder- also should only have 1 storm thread running at a time - its a pain having to keep switching between the 2 and the main Feb thread
  15. NEG NAO
    0Z Euro is now showing snow amounts in the NYC metro similar to what the GFS was coming up with
  16. NEG NAO
    CP NYC will find a way to measure close to 1 inch snow for each of the next 2 events and not out of the question for next weeks events as suppression is possible
  17. NEG NAO
    Both of these next 2 minor events in the immediate NYC metro look to have minor accumulations of 1 - 3 inches and with the second event on Sunday turning to rain and temps in the low 40's most areas around NYC and immediate suburbs will have little or no snow left on the ground after Monday IMO. Amazing how when we get close to these events they end up being no big deals.....
  18. NEG NAO
    we don't know exactly what is coming past day 2 because every one of these potential events are borderline for various reasons........
  19. NEG NAO
    Never ass/u/me.......
  20. NEG NAO
    yes - what these events remind me of is when you go to a restaurant and they first give you whatever after you sit down to munch on ( Thursdays Event) - then the waiter asks you to order your appetizer ( Weekend Event) then you order the main meal - ( next weeks first event) and then you order dessert -(next weeks second event) question here is will there be enough room left for dessert ? ( next weeks second event)
  21. NEG NAO
    Because it is a fast mover with borderline temps that will give us a similar event compared to many of the lighter events experienced the last couple of years - especially in the immediate metro that will melt away for the most past on Friday closer to the coast you get ....... 1- 3inch event possibly - BORING !
  22. NEG NAO
    12Z Euro
  23. NEG NAO
    thanks for proving my point about the long range GFS/GEFS suite of models nonsense
  24. NEG NAO
    The GFS/GEFS is usually wrong past days 5-7 - but then again every dog has its day
  25. NEG NAO
    If we have believed the GFS past 5-7 days this winter and it verified we would have had 10 feet of snow already
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