NEG NAO

Correct - plus all these above average temp months in a row and this abnormally long stretch of spring/summer like weather the last couple of weeks is giving some folks a false sense of security that EL NINO will protect us from the cold and snow well into winter..............

aren't the new models replacing some of the older models in November ?

maybe because soaking rains are so common around here..........

trying to forecast one blockbuster snowstorm prior to winter is the same as trying to predict if you will win the million dollar lottery - did anyone predict the blockbuster snowstorms prior to last winter ?

Nonsense - he is predicting 10 - 40 inches total snowfall for Zone 4 ???? Why doesn't he just say he has no idea..................plus he seems so sure the early polar vortex disruption will be a short one and December will be a mild basically snowless month. He is one of the very few reputable METS online taking that chance before the vortex disruption even started........

The surface-level weather effects from a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event in the United States typically last for 2 to 6 weeks on average. [1] While a major SSW event drastically disrupts the polar vortex high up in the stratosphere, its effects do not impact ground weather immediately. Instead, there is a 10- to 20-day time lag as the atmospheric changes ripple downward to the surface, causing the jet stream to become wavy and unstable. [1, 2, 3] Once those effects arrive, the impacts on U.S. weather patterns include: Prolonged Cold Spells: Rather than a brief cold snap, the weak polar vortex patterns lock in atmospheric blocks that can extend below-average temperatures for several weeks. [1, 2] Increased Storminess: A wavy jet stream frequently shifts the storm track, increasing the likelihood of extreme precipitation and winter storms. [1, 2] Regional Variation: An SSW event does not guarantee uniform cold across the entire country. For instance, a collapsed or split polar vortex often unleashes severe cold into regions like the Northern Plains or the Midwest, while other regions like the Eastern Seaboard can occasionally experience temporary warming depending on exactly where the cold air mass migrates. Also 2009 -2010 featured a moderate to Strong El Nino BUT not as strong as this one. Along with that there was an SSW event in mid to late November and we ended up with 12 Inches of snow in December in NYC and January we had a break and ended up with 2 inches BUT we all remember what happened in February 2010 -36 Inches of snow in NYC. So 2009- 2010 is now an analog year. [1, 2, 3] The previous expectations of a back loaded winter by many might turn into a front and back loaded winter with a break in the middle in January - time will tell

Any contrails you see in the mix ?

congrats everyone -( FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY ) !!!

agreed -these snowfall totals have happened before - and we have never experienced a SSW event or what ever else you prefer to call it so early along with a strong El Nino - so anything is on the table IMO

looking into November - could be a much more interesting month with a wide range of weather conditions because of this if it verifies : here is the results of the 1968 event into December

This year different types of trees and their locations are in different fall foliage stages. Some trees have already gone past peak and some have lost most of their leaves - some trees have mainly green leaves - and various others are changing colors at different speeds ..........

Heat Island effect - most areas away from the city will experience < 32 well before NYC

google it - its not made up AI Overview A polar vortex stretching event occurs when the large, circular ring of freezing stratospheric air above the North Pole loses its tight shape, elongating or warping into an oval or multi-lobed form. [1, 2]

Dry Stretch ahead

2024 reached into the 80's the warmest Halloween on record and 2019 reached close to 80 BUT both 2012 and 2020 Halloweens were cancelled in many towns - 2012 because of power outages and damage from Sandy and 2020 because of Covid and 2012 and 2020 were both one of the coldest Halloweens on record with highs only in the 40's anyways - 2011 had measurable snow a couple days before Halloween

The airmass is beginning to moderate across the region mostly everone on the map will end up in the 60's for highs

at least 1/4 of it frozen - probably more so in January

that shelf is empty precip is still miles west of you and the heavier rain is starting to shrink in size will it make it too the city ?

as expected the line of storms is breaking up as it moves through NJ - poor timing if skies cleared a few hours earlier and temps warmed past 80 there would have been more support further east and the earlier sun sets don't help either

Temperatures are not that chilly once the storms pass once the storms pass keep your windows closed so your heat won't go on tonight

as of 4:15 the line of storms is only about 25 miles or less wide extending from Scranton down through Harrisburg moving east fast at 40mph +

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for entire Metro WOUS from KWNS The line of storms is quite skinny in Central PA most of this will be high winds IMO - anchor down your Halloween decorations or your neighbors will be displaying them

you are right - just found this ---Legal Background: In 2021, Bob Read (Snowbird Bob LLC) pleaded guilty and was sentenced to prison (63 months) for federal fraud charges related to illegally obtaining pandemic relief (PPP) loans and unemployment benefits. [1, 2]

January continues the heavy snow totals according to him