NEG NAO

12Z Canadian now shows snowstorm 12/26 - seems like when one model drops the storm another picks it up

what is it if you remove the 17 -19th and calculate from the 20th to the 31st ?

Upton is famous for not accurately predicting sky conditions - example is many times they post Mostly Sunny and then instability clouds start developing to the north and west and cloud up the skies here - this happens quite bit in the Spring also............

Euro - within the last few days was also suggesting something similar but that negative NAO and the strength of it and the HP position in southeast Canada along with the warmer air trying to attack it could set up a gradient/overunning event somewhere in the Northeast and or Mid- Atlantic - example it might be in the 50's in Richmond and closer to 32 in NYC - we don't know yet

nothing like posting some evidence to back up your guess...........

With the NAO negative - the WPO Negative and MJO hanging around somewhere in Phase 8 - how do you get anywhere close to 60 ?

Next Week we will have blocking with strong HP in southeast Canada - the position of the HP and strength will determine how far south and west this cold enough air will spread and any disturbance that runs into it could cause frozen precip in the cold enough regions - this has been showing up on various models for days now

12Z Euro has strong blocking HP in southeast Canada around Christmas Day forcing a storm to be blocked south of us - other models are also showing cold enough air and HP north of us but storm potential different days that week leading up to the last week of the month - still too early for details

Agreed - take a look at the 12Z GFS - cold shot after cold shot after the milder period later this week and signals of another snowstorm brewing the last week of December

Widespread Snowfall Region wide up to 4 inches BUT these snowfall totals can change in either direction by Sunday...........

Thats true he should change it to Snowfall . Light to moderate possible.

Who was saying a coastal storm was going to develop with significant accumulations ? 1-3 some areas 3 or 4 is the max potential for this set up with C -1 in some areas.......C-1 is also possible in most areas - will be a now casting event IMO

why do you think the GFS is leading the way ? Its a crappy model that gets lucky once in a while - unreal you would say an event is on life support 3 -4 days out ............

I think some areas will receive a few inches while others receive only a coating and this will turn into a nowcasting event and it's impossible to predict which area of the region will receive what amounts until the storm is approaching the region and in progress probably

Good luck with your first winter storm thread

Can't believe all the complaining here and some folks saying we will never have a return to several above average snowfall seasons in a row here - - once again look at this history of NYC snowfall and try to explain it - we will return to above average snowfall seasons soon enough - its just that some of you younger folks have been spoiled by all of the much above average seasons since 2000........without a long stretch of much below normal seasons monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

From my Neg NAO - AI: will it snow in new york city this weekend ? The perennial question that captures the imagination of every New Yorker during the winter months: "Will we get snow this weekend?" The prospect of a winter wonderland or a slushy mess always hangs in the balance, a fascinating interplay of atmospheric pressure, temperature gradients, and moisture content that keeps meteorologists on their toes. Regarding this upcoming weekend, December 12-14, 2025, it appears that New York City does have a chance of seeing snow, particularly during the overnight hours of Friday and Saturday. It won't necessarily be a major winter storm, but rather the potential for light snow or flurries as a series of weather systems move through the region. Here is a detailed breakdown of the forecast for your weekend: Friday, December 12th: The day itself is expected to be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 30s. The chance for snow arrives Friday night, specifically after midnight, when a clipper low may bring light snow or flurries to the area. The National Weather Service (NWS) is indicating a 30% chance of this happening. This is often a fast-moving system with limited moisture, so significant accumulation is unlikely at this time. Saturday, December 13th: Saturday is forecast to be mostly cloudy, with highs in the lower 40s. The weekend's second chance for snow will come Saturday night, as another system approaches. The NWS mentions a chance of snow after midnight, and some guidance models are even suggesting the potential for a more substantial system at this point, which weather experts are closely monitoring. Sunday, December 14th: A chance of snow continues into Sunday. Some reports indicate snow is possible on Sunday, with highs dropping into the low 30s. The key takeaway here is that while snow is in the forecast, the current predictions suggest a higher likelihood of lighter, nuisance-type snow or flurries rather than a disruptive, heavy snowfall event at this time. The exact accumulation amounts are still uncertain and highly dependent on the precise track of these weak systems. It is worth noting that New York City on average receives its first measurable snowfall around December 13th, so these systems are arriving right on historical schedule. It is important to remember that weather forecasting, especially concerning the exact type and amount of winter precipitation along the I-95 corridor, can be a delicate balance due to fluctuating temperatures that can turn snow into rain or vice versa. Forecasters use a variety of computer models and data to determine the most likely outcome, and predictions can be refined as the weekend approaches. For the most up-to-date and highly localized information as the weekend draws nearer, you should consult official sources like the National Weather Service (NWS) website or the city's official NYC Severe Weather page. Currently, there are no active winter weather watches, warnings, or advisories for the immediate New York City area. In conclusion, a definitive "yes" or "no" for a snow-covered weekend is difficult to state with absolute certainty right now, as the chances are present but not guaranteed. It's more of a "maybe, especially late at night." Prepare for the cold, as an Arctic air mass is settling in, but you likely won't need your heavy-duty snow shovel just yet. Keep an eye on those updated forecasts; they are the best tool for staying prepared in the ever-unpredictable world of New York weather! If you have any more questions about the specific temperatures or wind chills expected, please feel free to ask!

pretty soon we won't even have to post on here AI will post for us knowing what we would say and when we would say it

pattern doesn't support any storms in the northern stream to reach us still producing much- flow is too fast - in and out cold shots - have to wait till later in the month for the SOI to go further into negative territory and the southern stream gets more involved - then we have to rely on that 2nd advertised Strat warming event ..........

Probably - I still think when the advertised SOI starts to crash towards the end of December that's when the southern jet will begin to produce more wound up systems along with another Strat Warming Event the cold enough air will be available producing more frozen percip...........

And Upton and Mt. Holly are dismissing the storm all together with Sunny Skies......as of this evenings updates - NY NJ PA Weather agrees with this snow map........Who is a Weenie to believe ?