NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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thats what makes this forum - Fill in the blank
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I said "Sourthern Snows" NOT NYC snows !
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The normal is not 33 inches its a few inches less
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as you get deeper into February those large southern snowstorms become less likely everyday - NYC is now at just over 21 inches 2/3rd through MET winter just need an average February snowfall total a couple inches after that to reach normal - thats all that one can reasonably expect - anything more is icing on the cake........
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apparently you didn't look at the 06 GFS - how in the world can you call this winter a "complete failure" ?????? regardless of what happens the rest of the way .
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The northern stream flow has to relax and go more west to east and also the arctic air can't be all the way down to Georgia - these suppress the entire pattern - the models lately have been terrible because of a lack of data ( weather balloons etc out west ) BECAUSE OF CLOSED NWS OFFICES apparently.
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Thanks for the good news Walt - I think
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I think there is a good chance of having some snow at least 1 inch on the ground every day in February when is the last time that happened ? Not talking about coastal Monmouth or Ocean County or coastal Long Island - those areas are less than 50 % IMO
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The first wave on the 5th is not a true Clipper it originates in the southern plains and appears as a LP in the Mid-West at least on the 0Z GFS - and moves almost directly east to the Mid-Atlantic coast
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Canadian says no so far - keep wishcasting
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I think its amazing how some posters here are just "throwing in the towel" on this storm like there is no chance of any snow when parts of the region could still receive anywhere from 2 - 8 inches AS OF NOW or more if there is a slight northwest jog of less than 100 miles. if you receive 4 -8 inches it will seem like a bigger deal because of all the snow already on the ground and frozen solid piles and VERY cold temps. The only good thing is it would be overnight Saturday once again very little traffic and Sunday a majority of people don't have to go to work or school. I also think the title of this thread is misleading - FYI it could be coming but only a smaller event than previously expected.
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How much is Mayberry getting ?
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Guaranteed the GFS OP doesn't verify with its Hop Scotching areas of LP .........crazy
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Mt. Holly 4 PM update still has a 40% chance of snow Saturday night and 50% chance Sunday in my area- they still think the precip might reach west of NYC
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he did something similar a couple days ago - notice there is no model name or date on it -WeatherGeek Model
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its actually closer to the 84 hr. NAM which would probably be close to that 90 hour ICON - thats scary - maybe the almost totally out to sea idea was not right with better data being fed into the models now as we get closer
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take it with a grain of salt until a non-mesoscale model agrees other than the CFS - NAM past 60 hours not accurate at all even under 60 hours
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This is so close we are not going to have all the answers till at least Friday or Saturday IMO because there is a good chance of at least some snow in the Region
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does anybody have the GEFS individual ensemble members graphic chart ?
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which one of those numbers ( members) is the OP ?
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also this is not an all or nothing storm for NYC immediate metro - still can receive advisory or WSW from this - I would lean toward throwing in the towel regarding a MECS or higher though
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The Jury will still be out deliberating till at least tomorrow - all options on the table IMO
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The Canadian and GFS are not set in stone as any adjustmet in those 250 mb winds or trough alignment can shift the storm just far enough west to impact the immediate NYC metro - it happened before the Boxing Day storm and no reason it can't happen again - have to leave all options on the table IMO - throwing in the towel today is a big risk..
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the storm on the 12Z GFS does turn the corner off of FLA and redevelops right over Hatteras stalls and deepens - But then it hits a brick wall and makes a hard right turn - question I have is will the upper level pattern change and allow it to continue north along the coast ?
