NEG NAO

2012 - major Atlantic Ocean hurricane close to Halloween a couple weeks later snowstorm wouldn't be surprising.........

he really covers his you know what with those wide range snowfall amounts ............

I posted the confusion emoji - because I am confused about exactly what triggers creating a storm thread now. I think there should be a storm thread created with emphasis on the Jersey Coast/ Long Island threats especially storm surge/flooding etc. etc. because as previously mentioned some areas have not fully recovered from the last storm 2 weeks ago. ALSO we still don't know exactly where that hurricane will track and its potential impacts on the coast combined with the coastal and or inland LP trough etc. etc. - I think inland areas will experience conditions similar to 2 weeks ago - agree or disagree ?

so you are saying we will have an inland runner pattern this winter similar to this late week storm and snowfall will be limited in the metro this winter ?

This is a definite storm thread worthy event IMO for along the Jersey/Long Island coast because they still haven't fully recovered from the previous storm a couple weeks ago .....as for storm tracks this winter its going to come down to the movement timing of key players on the field during each individual event IMO ............

that hurricane doesn't have to get very close to the coast to be able to combine forces with the trough and inland storm along it to create another situation along the coast similar to what happened a couple weeks ago which would be devastating in areas prone to flooding and beaches eroded even further..........

Hard to believe no place in the country is forecasted to have below normal temps

I think last nights 0Z Euro run was reasonable - and I think a storm thread should be created if todays 12Z Euro run still shows something similar - at least a moderate impact event and possibly more along the coast which still hasn't fully recovered from the previous storm

I just did an AI google search regarding the American Weather models and this Gov't shut down - any comments ? That 12Z GFS run might not be correct ??? AI Overview As of the October 2025 government shutdown, American weather models are not getting full data due to cuts to federal weather programs, staffing shortages, and the disruption of key data streams . This has led to concerns about the accuracy of weather forecasts, particularly during the ongoing hurricane season. Key reasons for the data shortfalls: Government Shutdown The latest federal government shutdown, beginning October 1, 2025, has halted "non-essential" operations, which affects weather forecasting and data distribution. While critical functions like watches and warnings from the National Weather Service (NWS) continue, many other activities, such as research, computer model upgrades, and certain data streams, have been impacted. Staffing Reductions Deep cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) earlier in 2025, implemented by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), have resulted in significant staff losses. Some NWS offices were already critically understaffed, with some meteorologists being laid off. Weather Balloon Launches Suspended Some NWS offices have suspended or reduced their daily weather balloon launches due to these staffing shortages. This eliminates crucial, real-time "sounding" data that is vital for forecasting severe weather, winter storms, and overall model accuracy. Loss of Defense Satellite Data A separate issue earlier in 2025 involved the Department of Defense (DoD) temporarily cutting off access to data from its Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). Although this decision was later reversed after concerns were raised by forecasters, it created a period where hurricane models were running with reduced data. Impact on forecasts The combination of these factors has raised alarm among meteorologists and researchers, who worry about the degradation of forecast accuracy. Potential consequences include: Increased uncertainty and inconsistency in model runs. Weaker forecasting of severe weather events like tornadoes and thunderstorms. More difficulty tracking winter storms and identifying their precise transitions from snow to ice or rain. Reduced accuracy in hurricane intensity forecasts. What is still operating? Despite the disruptions, essential weather services are still functioning: National Weather Service Operations: The NWS is deemed "essential" and will continue to issue critical watches and warnings to protect life and property. Daily Forecasts: The production of daily forecasts and outlooks continues. Satellite Data: While the Defense Meteorological Satellite data was temporarily at risk, data from other sources, including other weather satellites, is still being used.

one thing for certain is - it would be foolish to start a storm thread at this point there are many possible outcomes still on the table ranging from basically nothing to that trough coming around and the timing just right and it grabs the hurricane and throws it into the mid-atlantic and or northeast coast and we are dealing with a catastrophic situation for coastal residents especially.........

Guess you are hugging the worst model in the long range -the GFS - the Canadian disagrees with you

Here is some snow for you - this late October early November setup is reminding me of 2012 potential east coast hurricane next week and potential snowstorm 2 weeks later....

AND THE 0Z CANADIAN is COMPLETLY DIFFERENT THEN 12Z -Impossible to start a storm thread at this point

Who thinks these amounts are too high in PA down through VA ?

Now we can begin to see how this might play out as that new low grabs the offshore precip to its north and throws it on shore over NJ and the metro later.................

where are the other low centers located ? you can actually see the LP in Del Marva on radar as the precip west of it is moving from the northeast to southwest

anybody fiqure out the future of this storm yet ? Precip field in NJ over Monmouth and Ocean Counties is shrinking also winds here in north central NJ are reduced from earlier

anyone ever consider the HP to the north will win the battle this time around ???and areas especially north and west of Monmouth County NJ get much less then originally expected ? Not saying this will happen YET ! phasing even beginning yet ?

good question - do we share with other countries models our data ? how does that all work ?

this thread is a good practice run here for the winter storms ahead - taking what you just mentioned into account too.........

this is a now casting event - models should be taken with a grain of salt especially since they are not receiving full data input since the gov shutdown began

go on google and you will see articles explaining how weather models are not getting the full data from some weather ballons not being launched since the government shutdown began.

NJ State of Emergency Office of the Governor | Acting Governor Way Declares State of Emergency Ahead of Dangerous Nor’easter Storm

This is beginning to look like a moderate rain event north and west of Monmouth County NJ - with 1 - 2 inches long duration event and with the ground being bone dry from the drought conditions the last couple of months it will soak up that 1 -2 inches fast and there should be little flooding concerns unless you are prone to coastal flooding which is being caused by long duration onshore flow and high winds............

can't trust the NAM past 60 hours but here is the total qpf most of which still falls past 60 hours