NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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Models are behaving the same way they were before the big storms in January and February - they don't have a clue this far out and in March and April trying to forecast a frozen event more than a few days in advance is impossible IMO because they are are so borderline to begin with.........
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I can top that example check out 1895-1896 monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
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that would be a Sunday into Monday event which matches the seasonal pattern so far - 3 storms already this season Sunday or Sunday into Monday
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its all about the direction of the wind away from the coast next week in our region we will reach 70 BUT some areas of the Jersey coast and Long Island will be under 60 or under 50 and I bet some person here will mention the extra hour of daylight helping the high temp
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Big snow storms in March are not unusual for New York | FOX 5 New York
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and still possible up to 1 inch or more equivalent frozen precip in some still to be determined areas of the region over the next 5 weeks - this time of the year models have difficulty until a day or more before frozen events example 4/7/2003 and 4/6/82 and various other storms
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On February 28 with all signs pointing to more arctic air making its way down here after the warmup because of the polar vortex split and the MJO in 7 - 8 or 1 with an active pattern I think March ends up with above normal snowfall and so does April - wouldn't be surprised if there is another major east coast storm
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Winter is not over yet IMO - enjoy the next couple of weeks of moderating temps over all - BUT the Polar Vortex split is going to cause winter to return and all that arctic air in Canada to return during the second half of March and maybe into April and I would bet there are at least a couple of snowstorms left in this winter in the Metro
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I thought yesterday that the shift south in some models was overdone
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Euro AI
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this event is not set in stone yet 4 days out - the main player in this event is the HP to the north if that is weaker than progged and starts moving east or north the precip shield will be further north and Tuesday night looks like an icing event here
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wind direction in NJ will determine the high temps - even if any east wind develops along the coast in NJ there will be a wide range of temps
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I would ass/u/me this is your home made forecast ?
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I think the models are having trouble right now trying to determine exactly how far south the cold air will settle and stall - this will determine the boundary zone where the LP will move west to east
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how many years have you been a hobbyist ?
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GEFS still a SECS for the metro
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stlll a SECS for the immediate metro and points north and west
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agreed - but of course some folks here are ready to totally write off Mondays potential after one model run 5 days out
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No model is King anymore - its just that "Every Dog has its day" and the GFS just had its day.
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always go with the hot hand - which is the GFS lately until proven otherwise
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March to come in like a LION ! GFS has been showing this run after run the last few days and the Metro is right in the middle of the precip field
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especially if a subway line runs underneath that street
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One of these years there are going to be quite a few MLB games postponed in March because of cold and frozen precip - Mets open at home March 26 ??? Ridiculous IMO..
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Northof78 already opened one a while ago
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Higher sun angle , direction roof faces and slope -temps above freezing yesterday and close enough to freezing today to promote melting- poor insulation just below the roof - solar panels etc. etc.
