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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. in 1978 late January February MJO was in phase 4-5 during those snowstorms - as noted by JB today in his Saturday Summary
  2. (seems like I am the only one around here who knows how to cut and paste images)
  3. The 1st full week of January looks to be cold enough for snow with plenty of potential for snow on the 12Z GFS
  4. you can't trust him anymore because when he made his video canceling winter the rest of the way he backed himself into a corner - also I can't understand why anyone would pay money for his forecasts and insight when there are so many free and better forecasters out there...………...
  5. this is upside down compared to the 12Z NAM and 12Z ICON which has all the heavier amounts in southern NJ
  6. I just re - discovered the vendor thread so we can get all the conversations about what the paid vendors are talking about out of the main threads ………….lets see how many can follow directions around here
  7. Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago More Feel GFS feedback problem is jumping storm out to sea too much IMO, Almost every major NYC storm in past 25 years has been out to sea on the GFS 4 days before. Maybe this is GFS coup, but the feedback fairy likely causing problems, so expect model to correct west
  8. NY NJ PA Weather‏Verified account @nynjpaweather 3h3 hours ago More A potential winter storm is brewing for next weekend with heavy snow a threat for Saturday into Sunday morning. Details on the way! https://twitter.com/nynjpaweather?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
  9. These models have been playing catch - up for a while the actual result for December will show the central and east as a wide chunk of real estate below to well below normal as the blocking takes hold in an almost perfect position for a few weeks at least - this cold outbreak could rival 2013 - 2010 and 1989....
  10. Bernie is going for 6 -12 in NYC http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/expert-forecasts/snowstorm-tuesday-snow-amounts-over-2-feet/f4bzi5yte6o0cnlleinxd2ssq527igk4
  11. I think at this range its a good idea to have 12 - 24 because of all the uncertainties regarding banding and possible mixing in some areas..........
  12. The prime example regarding models and short range surprises is the January 7th storm which forecasters had to increase amounts and issue upgraded warnings during the storm - don't be surprised if that happens again at some point the remainder of the winter...........
  13. Bernie Rayno A.M. update 1/4 http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/late-week-snowstorm/2430839568001
  14. Joe Cioffi says around an inch Thursday Nights and Saturdays https://www.facebook.com/meteorologistjoecioffi/?pnref=lhc
  15. JB in his public daily summary says UKMET will verify phasing will occur = East Coast Blizzard This Weekend http://www.weatherbell.com/premium
  16. no 90's in site as this stubborn pattern continues with a blocked trough in the northeast preventing the heat ridge from expanding into our area http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif
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