NEG NAO

latest 03 HRRR reduced precip amounts west of NYC from previous runs - parts of central and north NJ only get a couple tenths of an inch - probably will change in future runs

The problem with trying to predict the winter season is there are a few other things to consider . One being the negative PDO - will it persist into the winter months ??? . Next is the Polar Vortex. - how will that behave ?. Another issue is the lack of melting in the Arctic region and Greenland this summer - 2 important cold air sources. Way too early to make any final winter forecasts.

plus he will be wrong because that El Nino had a positive PDO this one will more than likely have a negative PDO - this video explains

good looks like a snowy winter around here if he said that

one of several possible scenarios

they are heading towards the more favorable for convection unstable warmer air on the other side of the front to the south - we are on the unfavorable for convection more stable northern side - most we will get - if that is a few showers

the low clouds marine layer once those storms over western PA encounter it they will not make it this far east

yes CTG ahead of it not raining yet no wind

thunder way ahead of it here on border middlesex -union heavy rain now entering clark area - no wind here YET

Mixed feelings about this severe watch since there is only 1 severe warning in PA so far and the heavy precip echoes coming out of eastern PA into NJ are shrinking

Severe Watch Issued BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 638 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 435 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DEC001-003-005-020400- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0638.260901T2035Z-260902T0400Z/ DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC011-015-025-029-035-041-020400- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0638.260901T2035Z-260902T0400Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE CECIL HARFORD KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT NJC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-020400- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0638.260901T2035Z-260902T0400Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC005-047-061-071-079-081-085-087-105-119-020400- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0638.260901T2035Z-260902T0400Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRONX KINGS NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) ORANGE PUTNAM QUEENS RICHMOND ROCKLAND SULLIVAN WESTCHESTER PAC011-015-017-025-027-029-035-037-041-043-045-067-069-071-075- 077-079-081-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-113- 115-117-119-127-131-133-020400- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0638.260901T2035Z-260902T0400Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKS BRADFORD BUCKS CARBON CENTRE CHESTER CLINTON COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE JUNIATA LACKAWANNA LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH LUZERNE LYCOMING MIFFLIN MONROE MONTGOMERY MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PHILADELPHIA PIKE POTTER SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA UNION WAYNE WYOMING YORK ANZ338-430-431-450-451-452-453-454-455-530-539-540-020400- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0638.260901T2035Z-260902T0400Z/

The movement of these storms if they develop is going to be mainly northwest to southeast. As of 3:35 radar is only showing some development just south of Allentown PA

Agree for the morning and most of the Afternoon BUT there is a potential for the front to move back north as a warm front - timing is an issue right now - we have done quite well this summer regarding severe weather with warm fronts approaching from the south - time will tell..........

Another area to consider when trying to consider if the winter is going to be colder/snowier in the east is how the Arctic and Greenland Ice Sheet gained or lost Ice in the summer months. The Arctic lost very little Ice and the map below illustrates that potential source of cold air in the winter months Greenland actually gained Ice these last 3 months - encouraging news

Still the same severe chances - updated a few hours ago

Not much has changed - reminds me of a few weeks ago when we were in the northeast side of the heat ridge which is famous for severe weather chances

Very true - Also San Diego is much cooler in July and August then NYC metro ContextClimate - scroll to different stations to compare

Going to be a fun rush hour - plenty of heavy precip - storms moving in from the west - southwest towards the metro - much of NE NJ under water already

That is from that storm north of you over Elizabeth area - also another one heading your way from Perth Amboy

NYC is going to be sharing the wealth - FFW - also anyone in Rahway- Linden Elizabeth ? That heavy rain has been sitting there for over an hour on radar FFW from KOKX

what is a "Deflector Shield" ?

dark angry looking sky to my southwest with nothing on radar but just noticed another pop up developing south of 287 near highland park - plenty of thunder in the area - earlier pop up near piscataway plainfield now heavy precip near Elizabeth/Newark - another Flash Flood Warning there FFW from KOKX