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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    when is the weekend storm thread going to start ? LOL
  2. NEG NAO
    I would just stress in the headline the model guidance is not reliable especially past a certain number of hours - if that is the case - so folks won't get false hope - some storms there is no doubt we will end up with snowstorm region wide but these borderline situations have high bust potential regarding precip type especially- I still think there will be busts in the forecast for tomorrow one way or the other in certain areas yet to be determined. AI overview Meteorology is called an "inexact science" because the Earth's atmosphere is a massive, complex system that is impossible to measure with complete accuracy, and is governed by principles of chaos theory, making long-term, precise prediction impossible. While the underlying physics and math are precise, the application to predicting weather is limited by factors like incomplete initial data, the sheer scale of the atmosphere, and the amplification of tiny errors over time, a concept known as the "Butterfly Effect".
  3. NEG NAO
    problem with indirect sun this time of the year is the very low sun angle-and whats with this area of snow this morning moving through eastern PA into NJ ? Will Tuesday mornings radar look similar to this mornings but surface temps lower Tuesday ?
  4. NEG NAO
    Time is still on our side 2 days still till showtime...........I have been saying all along we have to wait till events unfold after that Great Lakes LP passes and how fast the HP sets up shop in southeast Canada and if it decides to stay put for awhile and how fast like you just mentioned the LP develops and moves in from the south its all in the timing
  5. NEG NAO
    Time will tell still 2 days of modeling to go through
  6. NEG NAO
    Its interesting that most people are dismissing the Euro and going with the worst models GFS-NAM Etc. The Euro snowfall map looks serious enough for the immediate metro to me for so early in the season . Oh Well !
  7. NEG NAO
    that was an easier forecast because the arctic air was already established in place...........
  8. NEG NAO
    what if the Canadian shifts back to its OZ accumulating snow solution ? And Euro shifts south ? there has been a wide range of differing model solutions in the last 24 hours from the amped GFS and Nam brings liquid all the way up to Albany and the Canadians 2 - 4 inches North Jersey
  9. NEG NAO
    Models are confused right now to say the least - expect further changes in future runs ...........
  10. NEG NAO
    now watch the next Euro's suite only bring the precip as far north as southern NY state - something is seriously wrong with some of these models..........is it GIGO (Garbage In/Garbage Out)??
  11. NEG NAO
    18Z Nam is saying way north of Yonkers till it snows - closer to Albany
  12. NEG NAO
    interesting where does the data input come from for the Euro model ? The output is much different then GFS and Canadian
  13. NEG NAO
    12Z Canadian amped up again - discussion here has been the GFS is too wound up and the Canadian and Euro have been trending towards it and then backing off then flip floping - like to know which data ingested into the models or missing on certain runs is causing this
  14. NEG NAO
    Sounds like the type of discussions and articles Paul Dorian of Arcfield Weather would discuss on his site........
  15. NEG NAO
    12Z NAM amped hard to believe this is correct if you are saying the GFS is too amped
  16. NEG NAO
    anyone who wants 2-4 or 3 -5 in the immediate metro away from any immediate coastal locations should hope for a weaker solution - the water temps are still too warm for an amped up solution which brings in that warmer air- we won't know for sure how this is going to play out until that Great Lakes low passes and HP moves into southeast Canada and if it is allowed to leave with the flow or stays put just long enough to provide cold enough air and keep the storm off the coast
  17. NEG NAO
  18. NEG NAO
    This is what I mean by 25 -50 mile adjustment 12Z Euro has snow accumulations now down into central NJ and part of Ocean/Burlington County NJ
  19. NEG NAO
    I wouldn't change the thread title till Sunday PM if needed - IMO this setup is not set in stone as 25 -50 miles either way makes a big difference..along with the position of the HP and how the storm cutting through the Great Lakes this weekend adjusts the location of the key players on the field....
  20. NEG NAO
    and this is the result
  21. NEG NAO
    0Z Euro - a few days after mid-week event next weekend) has been showing up on various models last few days-colder airmass to work with-also will be entering MJO phase 8
  22. NEG NAO
    Can't make this stuff up 18Z Euro AI is still off the coast out to sea
  23. NEG NAO
    still a long way to go with this - flip flopping at this range is not unusual and 18Z runs are not as reliable as 0Z and 12Z some data could be missing that was included in 12Z who knows !
  24. NEG NAO
    on to the ensembles - but 0Z will provide newer data.........
  25. NEG NAO
    there is going to be mixing somewhere- these amounts are not accurate yet BUT GFS and Euro moved closer to their mean Ensembles - probably more adjustments to come
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