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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    On February 28 with all signs pointing to more arctic air making its way down here after the warmup because of the polar vortex split and the MJO in 7 - 8 or 1 with an active pattern I think March ends up with above normal snowfall and so does April - wouldn't be surprised if there is another major east coast storm
  2. NEG NAO
    Winter is not over yet IMO - enjoy the next couple of weeks of moderating temps over all - BUT the Polar Vortex split is going to cause winter to return and all that arctic air in Canada to return during the second half of March and maybe into April and I would bet there are at least a couple of snowstorms left in this winter in the Metro
  3. NEG NAO
    I thought yesterday that the shift south in some models was overdone
  4. NEG NAO
    Euro AI
  5. NEG NAO
    this event is not set in stone yet 4 days out - the main player in this event is the HP to the north if that is weaker than progged and starts moving east or north the precip shield will be further north and Tuesday night looks like an icing event here
  6. NEG NAO
    wind direction in NJ will determine the high temps - even if any east wind develops along the coast in NJ there will be a wide range of temps
  7. NEG NAO
    I would ass/u/me this is your home made forecast ?
  8. NEG NAO
    I think the models are having trouble right now trying to determine exactly how far south the cold air will settle and stall - this will determine the boundary zone where the LP will move west to east
  9. NEG NAO
    how many years have you been a hobbyist ?
  10. NEG NAO
    GEFS still a SECS for the metro
  11. NEG NAO
    stlll a SECS for the immediate metro and points north and west
  12. NEG NAO
    agreed - but of course some folks here are ready to totally write off Mondays potential after one model run 5 days out
  13. NEG NAO
    No model is King anymore - its just that "Every Dog has its day" and the GFS just had its day.
  14. NEG NAO
    always go with the hot hand - which is the GFS lately until proven otherwise
  15. NEG NAO
    March to come in like a LION ! GFS has been showing this run after run the last few days and the Metro is right in the middle of the precip field
  16. NEG NAO
    especially if a subway line runs underneath that street
  17. NEG NAO
    One of these years there are going to be quite a few MLB games postponed in March because of cold and frozen precip - Mets open at home March 26 ??? Ridiculous IMO..
  18. NEG NAO
    Northof78 already opened one a while ago
  19. NEG NAO
    Higher sun angle , direction roof faces and slope -temps above freezing yesterday and close enough to freezing today to promote melting- poor insulation just below the roof - solar panels etc. etc.
  20. NEG NAO
    GFS makes the most sense - the Euro's don't .....
  21. NEG NAO
    Interesting BUT
  22. NEG NAO
    if that were to verify it would only be a SECS in many areas - I would discount it at the present time
  23. NEG NAO
    I would rate historic as in the top 10 % of all time greatest snowstorms
  24. NEG NAO
    this is now now casting time using radars and various types of surface reports and observations - I don't think any model can keep up to date at this time because of all the complex interactions in the atmosphere constantly changing
  25. NEG NAO
    time will tell thats all I have to say
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