NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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starting this weekend cold enough air for snow making will return and probably last into a good portion of April for ski resorts that choose to remain open - mainly caused by the Start Warming event now unfolding.
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Temps leading up to it have no effect - and ground temps adapt fast to any cold air present at the time the precip is falling - we have had accumulations on the ground in October - I think you know this but are just trying to cause confrontations here along with a couple others- but I am going to keep the conversation professional
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This potential is reminding me of this March storm Snow storm, March 18, 1994 - Storm Summary
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that is going to vary model run to model run until we get much closer to the potential - still over 200 hours away - important thing right now is that it is showing up around the same time period on several different OP models and Ensemble Means run after run...
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Parts of northern most Middlesex County reached 72 - all depended on how much sunshine you received which varied widely from town to town.
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18Z GFS has joined the 12Z Canadian and the Euro AI with a potential east coast snowstorm around mid month - those HP's in Canada help
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I wouldn't give up on some flakes in April as this season seems to be following the 95/96 fading La Nina playbook although you have received a few weenies from the usual warmsters who are giving up on March as expected that clown from Philly is even counting out Northern New England in March
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Guess they only count Meteorological Winter and leave out March which sometimes can have more snow than any of the previous winter months still a 50/50 chance of at least 6 inches in many parts of the state this March IMO as we can several shots of cold air coming up in an active storm pattern - todays Canadian shows that and the Euro's have been hinting at it down the road on various runs. Wash - rinse - repeat.....
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I wonder if we will be saying that about the cold and snow too at some point in the second half of the month - various models are signaling a large east coast storm at some point with polar/arctic air involved
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Models are behaving the same way they were before the big storms in January and February - they don't have a clue this far out and in March and April trying to forecast a frozen event more than a few days in advance is impossible IMO because they are are so borderline to begin with.........
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I can top that example check out 1895-1896 monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
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that would be a Sunday into Monday event which matches the seasonal pattern so far - 3 storms already this season Sunday or Sunday into Monday
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its all about the direction of the wind away from the coast next week in our region we will reach 70 BUT some areas of the Jersey coast and Long Island will be under 60 or under 50 and I bet some person here will mention the extra hour of daylight helping the high temp
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Big snow storms in March are not unusual for New York | FOX 5 New York
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and still possible up to 1 inch or more equivalent frozen precip in some still to be determined areas of the region over the next 5 weeks - this time of the year models have difficulty until a day or more before frozen events example 4/7/2003 and 4/6/82 and various other storms
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On February 28 with all signs pointing to more arctic air making its way down here after the warmup because of the polar vortex split and the MJO in 7 - 8 or 1 with an active pattern I think March ends up with above normal snowfall and so does April - wouldn't be surprised if there is another major east coast storm
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Winter is not over yet IMO - enjoy the next couple of weeks of moderating temps over all - BUT the Polar Vortex split is going to cause winter to return and all that arctic air in Canada to return during the second half of March and maybe into April and I would bet there are at least a couple of snowstorms left in this winter in the Metro
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I thought yesterday that the shift south in some models was overdone
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Euro AI
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this event is not set in stone yet 4 days out - the main player in this event is the HP to the north if that is weaker than progged and starts moving east or north the precip shield will be further north and Tuesday night looks like an icing event here
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wind direction in NJ will determine the high temps - even if any east wind develops along the coast in NJ there will be a wide range of temps
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I would ass/u/me this is your home made forecast ?
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I think the models are having trouble right now trying to determine exactly how far south the cold air will settle and stall - this will determine the boundary zone where the LP will move west to east
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how many years have you been a hobbyist ?
