NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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its nowcasting time - keep your eyes on the ball - monitor radar trends and various surface and upper level guidance - watching the models now arguing with each other so close to tonights event will lead you down the wrong road - as of 9:30 AM radar shows precip moving west to east across northern VA and southern delmarva back through Kentucky with little northward progression yet - frozen line is far south too across southern delmarva -
Northern Middlesex County north of the Raritan can have several inches of snow and southern Middlesex County can have next to nothing but they are considered 1 forecast zone...........
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That west to east banding across central NJ reminds me of what happened last Feb 16 -17 storm......
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agreed - this is an interesting event with watches for many - maybe should put strict limits of number of posts allowed daily for new members and everyone should only be allowed a certain number of posts a day.........so they don't hog the forum take a look at their total number of posts and see who is way over the average number considering how long they have been here
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Just a reminder post the 24 HR snowfall maps now because of these multiple storms
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Upton is going all in on this weekend event - posted there is still a chance of warning level 6 inch snows in NYC Facebook
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Euro running soon for the tiebreaker......any predictions ?
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Never trust the 18Z GFS OP or when the GFS has big changes from one run to the next.......lets see if the GEFS agrees with the OP
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true - BUT its still early and a very complicated set up with multiple storms playing off one another influencing the next one and so on........and questions regarding strength and position of the HP's very critical IMO - also the configuration of the jet stream during all of this
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Nobody listened to me a couple days ago when I said to "curb your enthusiasm" and I got stuck with 11 weenies
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Totally Suppresed on 0Z GFS
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Too close for comfort this far out - for this too work for the NYC immediate metro the LP has to slide west to east south of the Mason-Dixon Line
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1-3 sounds good as of now -still say if it turns to rain or is sunny close to freezing or above for a couple days before the mid week event NYC metro will melt again -- what do you think ?
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of course anytime there is precip around the north colder environment is always favored for frozen - what I was downplaying was the immediate NYC metro and points slightly west ( eastern essex / passaic / union and east and south of the city
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lol - should have listened to me yesterday when I got all those weenies for downplaying todays and the weekend event - Shouldn't be using the Mesoscale NAM yet.......
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should only consider the NAM up to 60 hours after that it is less reliable - in fact maybe only 48 hours demonstrated by how it performed a couple of days out for todays event
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The problem with NAM is on Tuesday it was also showing several inches for todays (Thursdays) event and as it got closer and closer that amount dwindled down to an inch or 2 which ended up a dusting for many of us closer to NYC
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I am still going with this 11 Weenie post attached I made yesterday which was only for NYC and local suburbs NOT Northern and Western suburbs - have just a light dusting here with a little icy slush on the east side of the Union/Middlesex County in NJ and temp is about 33 degrees now and forecasted to stay above freezing through daytime tomorrow last forecast I saw - so bare ground for the start of the weekend event which could end up similar to this one .........
