NEG NAO

Jan. 4, 2018 - An intense nor'easter created whiteout conditions late in the morning into the early afternoon, with snow accumulating close to ten inches by the time it ended later in the afternoon. Today's snow easily broke the previous record for snowfall on this date (4.0" in 1988) - and today's accumulation of 9.8" was slightly more than last winter's biggest snowfall (9.4" on Feb. 9). Temperatures were in the mid-20s throughout the storm and, combined with winds that gusted close to 35 mph, produced wind chills around 10°. Today was also the tenth consecutive day in which the high was colder than 32°, making this the longest such streak since one of 12 days in January 2003.

I am sure Don knows......

I guess Walt would have the best answer......

Tell that to whoever is in charge at Mt. Holly

a Winter Storm Watch or advisory ?

are they even considering global models as of now? The mesoscale models are in range

bust potential currently is high for this storm IMO

ZFP from KPHI (cod.edu) 10P.M. update scroll down to Middlesex County

8.4 in Northern Middlesex County NJ and Mt. Holly has little or no snow accumulation - somethings not right.............

because of visibility or road conditions or both ?

those clown maps are misleading - in central NJ as of 10 P.M. - MT. Holly is going with little or no snow accumulation ZFP from KPHI (cod.edu)

maybe CPK can make it to 5 inches total for the season ........saying that on Feb 11th is mind boggling

NWS answer so far for NYC immediate metro = no watches or warnings and only light accumulation possible temps above freezing

mesoscale models should be trusted more starting at 0Z within 36 hours out

Euro south - today we are on a south trend mainly

NAM stayed south and GFS shifted south along with its Ensembles - waiting on 12Z EURO

thats considered a big snowstorm in NYC nowadays

thats closer to yourterritory my area is right on the fence between nothing and several inches

this storm is going to become a nowcasting event with possible surprises

12Z GFS agreeing with 12Z NAM inNYC metro down to Middlesex County NJ

speed and exact track of this storm is key BUT CMC moved north

this whole situation depends on when the system reaches West Virginia and then attempts the hand off to redevelopment on the coast the Nam has it redeveloping off the Del Marva which is further south then some other models

Makes one wonder......its not unreasonable

really ? they won't take the chance of forecasting that..........

Many well known METS had a humbling experience this winter season - next winter should only issue winter outlooks that go out 1 month max........