NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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Flood Watch 1-3 inches expected FFA from KOKX HRR has been all over the place with the precip/storm placements in the metro- same with the NAM - definite NOWCASTING event
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Total disagreement amongst the 2 mentioned models
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and as the 12Z and 18Z NAM shows the difference in different areas - no consistency - thats why Don's forecast of a 1/2 inch to 1 1/2 inches without saying where is the best way to go.......
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compare the 12Z NAM to the 18Z NAM and you will see it has no idea how much and where the rainfall will occur IMO using models this far out will not verify. It will be all about now casting tomorrow
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and here is the 12Z NAM models are all over the place typical of a system where T-storms will be the main heavy rain maker and its impossible to determine where they will go - there will be a wide range of totals region wide
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GFS is very wet ? IMO when this system arrives it will not be one solid area of precip - it will be a more showery system with T-storms possible only areas that will see over 1 inch will be the few that get the t-storms The system will not arrive till afternoon and by then daytime heating will support T-storms
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0Z Canadian and GFS- as we move closer to the event once again the trend is dryer
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IMO there is going to be a wide range of totals in the region - anywhere from a few inches (where T-storms occur) to less than an inch in unknown areas.
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the higher end amounts will be in areas that get the thunderstorms predicted - going to be a wide range of totals region wide as of now.........
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I might be issuing a BUST WATCH for Monday as we get closer the way things have been verifying here lately.
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Amazing how most of the showers fall apart as they are moving northeast towards the metro from southeast PA - lets see if that moderate to heavy batch near York PA survive
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Will take a long time to catch up to normal - lawns look like they do in March ............
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a drop in the bucket compared to what we really need - soaking rains of 1 to 2 inches every week for a few months
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No Weather Hazards For Us
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Our next severe event possibiility
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very uncertain on exactly what will happen in eastern most NJ and NYC and points east - STAY TUNED ! Late poor timing of the front is to blame IMO
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That line of shower/storms is still 8 hours from here - are we going to have a rude awakening at 2 AM ?
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Similar to every other severe event this spring the greatest threat is the wind
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Busy Weather Day Sunday
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just in time for the Mets Game
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a while ago SVR from KPHI
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this is going to be another "pop up" storm day radars showing activity east of Allentown and other areas widespread through the region
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Severe Watch Issued For Metro WWUS from KWNS WOUS from KWNS
