NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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GEFS still a SECS for the metro
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stlll a SECS for the immediate metro and points north and west
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agreed - but of course some folks here are ready to totally write off Mondays potential after one model run 5 days out
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No model is King anymore - its just that "Every Dog has its day" and the GFS just had its day.
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always go with the hot hand - which is the GFS lately until proven otherwise
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March to come in like a LION ! GFS has been showing this run after run the last few days and the Metro is right in the middle of the precip field
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especially if a subway line runs underneath that street
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One of these years there are going to be quite a few MLB games postponed in March because of cold and frozen precip - Mets open at home March 26 ??? Ridiculous IMO..
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Northof78 already opened one a while ago
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Higher sun angle , direction roof faces and slope -temps above freezing yesterday and close enough to freezing today to promote melting- poor insulation just below the roof - solar panels etc. etc.
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GFS makes the most sense - the Euro's don't .....
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2/24 - 2/25 Clipper Obs (1 - 2" for many on forum)
NEG NAO replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Interesting BUT -
if that were to verify it would only be a SECS in many areas - I would discount it at the present time
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I would rate historic as in the top 10 % of all time greatest snowstorms
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this is now now casting time using radars and various types of surface reports and observations - I don't think any model can keep up to date at this time because of all the complex interactions in the atmosphere constantly changing
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time will tell thats all I have to say
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problem I see - the Nam cut totals at 12Z and the Canadian already had reduced total at 0Z Last night
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this is a very complex set-up and there are going to be some surprises as we get further down the road today - possible extreme lifting - banding and on the flip side a large dry slot somewhere cutting off precip for hours
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dynamics - rising air =lifting creating its own cold enough temps
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there are going to be winners ( rising air - banding) and losers in this event (sinking air - possible light dry slot)there will be a wide range of total snowfall amounts region wide IMO - and impossible at this point to tell exactly where - begin nowcasting....
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much lower in certain areas especially the ocean county coast VS. the NAM
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My question now is what is everyone's opinion on what could go wrong with this storm causing much lower snowfall amounts then modeled in certain areas ? One area I think that is overdone is the NAMS 42 inches on the Ocean County coast .
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IMO its impossible for any model to pinpoint exactly where any extreme amounts will fall caused by banding - have seen that happen in many storms over the years.
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NYC: 15.8 LGA: 17.9 ISP:27.5 JFK:22.6 EWR: 18.5
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Manhatten these days is the Heat Island - in a world of its own - concrete jungle - much different than during the Blizzard of '88
