NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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The Euro's and the ensembles should be interesting - but we are still over 5 days away -
Canadian suppresses storm - actually this is a good signal this far out IMO Models: GDPS — Pivotal Weather
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Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather Because HP moving faster to the southeast blocking storm
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this comes down to the positioning and strength of the cold HP to the north - impossible to predict this far out
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next weekends event still shows up on the 12Z GFS - forget about above avg temps to start the month
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The 06 GFS was a weenies dream run - any bets on how the 12Z will compare ?
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you must agree with the EURO AI warmer solution - the GFS shows a snow/Ice threat here next weekend - no above normal temps plus Walt seems to also believe the GFS solution - he started a winter storm thread for next weekend
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No January thaw this year .............
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The 0Z Euro only has 1 above normal temp day the first week or 7 days of Feb, the above normal temps stay below the Mason Dixon line for the most part as the arctic air is close by to the north - individual storm chances to be determined - too far out for those details....
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This is warm ?
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Good Luck getting the temperature 2 degrees above avg this winter in Feb.........I agree with your precip totals maybe 3- 4 inches though but temps closer to normal
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considering how cold January has been and avg temps in February usually rise - it won't be difficult for it to be warmer - timing of storms in cold or warm periods is impossible to predict in advance.....
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thats why I said its a BIG IF - but on the other hand extreme events seem to be common these last few years so I wouldn't close the door on the possibility....
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it doesn't matter in my opinion if 2 winters temperature and snowfall patterns are similar they can be analogs for one another IMO . Plus how long have we actually been categorizing El Nino and LaNina events since record keeping began ?
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I would say 2009 -2010 could be an analog for this season IF it ends up being cold and very snowy in Feb - BIG IF though ! and not a prediction ! 2009 -2010 had 3 cold months below avg Dec - Feb - a basically low snowfall of a couple inches in January- BUT a snowier December......and all time snowiest Feb of 36 inches - we are overdue to break this precip drought one way or the other
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if it shows that 5 - 7 days out I will believe it plus it will be a one day or so warm up if it even verifies -12Z Euro AI
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if it shows that 5 - 7 days out I will believe it plus it will be a one day or so warm up if it even verifies
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the other problem is the MJO is going into the extreme right side of the Neutral Circle and there is some disagreements amongst guidance if it will enter 4-5-6 or stay in the Neutral Zone and make a left hand turn towards the colder phases - STAY TUNED !
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like I said previously don't believe any models past 5 - 7 days - 12Z Canadian does not agree with you or GFS still alot of cold around
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I wouldn't trust any model long range past 5 - 7 days - check this out on the EURO AI last nights 0Z vs, todays 06Z
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the 540 line crashing into the GOM rarely does work out for us
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IMO February is setting up to be a real battle between the constant cold air intrusions and a strengthening southern stream - plenty of storm chances....2009 -2010 featured below normal temp December and January with only a couple inches snow in January then the battle began and we ended up with 36 inches of snow in February with continued below normal temps - cold and snowiest Feb ever........
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12Z Euro disagrees with Canadian and GFS
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Canadian first weekend Feb - Snow Ice Storm - GFS disagrees of course
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