NEG NAO

In addition take a look at previous seasons when NYC received over 10 in. of snow in December and report back....

GEM Disagrees

Post the EPO images and then you may see why............

Does this reinforce the idea of not trusting some models past a certain number of days ?? even though the AO, NAO and PNA were and still are favorable for winter weather around these parts next week BUT how about the EPO ? Can't seem to find anymore graphics to show the EPO since I heard the NWS took them away ??? Also some in the weather community were so certain that the early next week system would not be able to cut because of the block setting up and would be forced to redevelop south of us . What contributed to the system being able to cut and not redevelop ???? Or is this still a possibility at some point next week ????

yes but DT said this is the best pattern he has seen since Jan 96 and Dec 2009

Early next weeks event the 28th - 29th has a very low chance as of now for frozen precip in most of NYC metro IMO - The 31st - 1st event is the one to watch as the block is more substantial and whatever storm comes down the pike is forced south and east of NYC Metro as illustrated on the 0Z EURO OP

Agreed

There is a new thread created by Walt for next weeks potential

as you can see from all of the OP runs of the various 12Z models I just posted because of the first batch of cold air escaping along the coast after Christmas there is no cold air in place for the redeveloping coastal low and it then hugs the coast coming north resulting in warm ocean air along the coastal plain in NYC metro need this setup to change in order to get a snowstorm early next week IMO.

Too Warm as of now

The cold enough air does not stay entrenched prior to any storms arrival both the GFS and EURO shows this

Usually we waited in the past to start Snowstorm topic till the evidence is overwhelming that there was a very good possibility but this event is still uncertain IMO EURO OP IS TOO WARM BUT EPS seems to be colder would be better if there was cold air in place before the storm arrives

hopefully gone for the rest of the winter.........

GFS is out to lunch IMO - look what it just cooked up for a few days later:

how many members ?

Until the EURO stops the LP from cutting nothing to crow about yet:

need everything to line up next - 50/50 low - strong HP in southern Canada and an active storm track...……….

12Z CMC is further south then 12 Z NAM with precip but doesn't look to be all frozen so IMO this event is not thread worthy YET

Since nobody has been talking about the MJO lately here it is - mainly staying close to the COD which is a good thing in this pattern with all the other indicies mostly favorable for cold and snow in the east next few weeks http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

12Z NAM is mainly a New York State/Northern PA and points east of there event maybe Northwest NJ

I think the 95/96 La Nina is the closest analog to this winter so far and early January has a lot of potential as it did in 1996 after a above average snowfall in December 1995 BUT its only potential as of now