NEG NAO

This reminds me of last Monday when the NAM overdid snow accumulations in the area.........

From Mount Holly Latest AFD : Thursday Into Friday Rains Will Likely Change To Snow and Some Snow Accumulations Possible

The 6Z GFS looks very interesting for next Friday as a wave is developing along the front on next Thursday and then rides up along the front through Friday - this is all about timing IMO and the exact location of the front and cold enough air as the wave rides up along the front - according to this it is a complex situation still a week away it is beginning to remind me of Christmas 2002 when rain developed earlier and then changed to snow across the region as the day wore on and by night several inches were on the ground

no strong high to north and no 50/50 no cold air in place before storm arrives especially south and coast coast hugger and coastal rain

need the 540 line further east its hanging back in Central PA and Central NE - need more of a faster phase

rain showers coast snow showers inland on this run

Don - I think you may want to reconsider your prediction of "likely below normal snowfall" as far as I can see only 2 times since the beginning of record keeping at Central Park when they recorded at least 10 inches of snow in December they had below normal seasonal snowfall - most of the time when they had at least 10 inches of snow in December they recorded above normal snowfall for the season with some years around normal.............

interesting

Red Sky in morning - Sailor's take warning !

` Corrected

Modoki La Nina years and snow totals at Central Park: 73-74 23.5 75-76 17.3 83-84 25.4 88-89 8.1 98-99 12.7 00- 01 35.0 08 -09 27.6 10 -11 61.9 16 -17 30.2

up and down the east coast ski resorts are doing well check out cams from Sugar Mountain North Carolina Sugar Mountain Resort Web Cams - Sugar Mountain Resort (skisugar.com)

Rain Rain and more rain - pattern does not support a frozen solution for most of NYC metro.................

1995 -96 is one of the top analogs for this upcoming winter.............75 inches of snow at Central Park............according to LC There are suspicions of a pattern change across North America as we head into late December. But I can assure you that any alteration in the 500MB longwave configuration will be slow, and be dependent on two factors. One is the active southern branch jet stream, which all of the numerical models are having trouble handling. The other is the potential for a sudden stratospheric warming event, which could have a "cascade/domino" effect on lower layers of teh atmosphere as we head into January. The subtropical jet stream has been a force in apparent weather in the U.S., with a surface temperature response quite unlike the "typical La Nina" calls that have dominated traditional and online media since November. Quite simply, we have seen a warm Canada and northern U.S. response, with colder than average readings common along and below 40 N Latitude. The various guidance formats use climatology in the equations, and the numerical model expectation of a very warm pattern continues to be at odds with readings that often fall lower than what can be expected for the season. This is why when you look at the monthly outlooks, they appear to be almost ablaze with record warmth across most, if not the entire, continent. Check the analog predictions as a balance. We are now down to ten usable comparison seasons, with 1995-96 and 2007-08 being the most similar. This set-up gives credence to teh idea that a shift to a colder outcome will occur in January, and keep going through February and March. The 10MB temperature and height forecasts are interesting because the reveal a sudden stratospheric warming over Siberia, with a re-alignment of the circumpolar vortex in a linear manner from eastern North America through much of Europe and western Russia. Keep in mind that the predictions and boundary layer response for this level fall often into uncertainty. And, that the eventual outcome from 500MB on down usually happens after about a two week delay. But if the December 21 panel verifies, then we will see a shift to a -AO/+PNA configuration by the second or third week of January. That would mean a more traditional, colder winter across the eastern two-thirds of North America. If the energy from the southern branch can interact with more profound digging troughs from Canada, it might make us forget some of those longer term predictions by the world agencies. There is hope, at least!

Central Park got 40.9 did you measure yours accurately ?

Anyone remember this one ? 17th anniversary this weekend. Snow and ice storm, December 5-6, 2003 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)

Is he a "Jersey Guy" ?

If we don't get at least an event that is measurable this month that will be by accident IMO . Plenty of cold enough air available and the indicies are mostly favorable going forward and an active southern stream coming in our direction - the cold enough air at all levels and the southern moisture will eventually phase together in NYC metro most models have shown runs in recent days suggesting this after this week.....

Hope you are wrong............. Hoping for this:

it would have a better chance if it was later in the season BUT I agree with Anthony too close to the coast and the flow will be off the too warm ocean - need to move it east to have a chance and that if cold enough air is in place prior

You are discounting the 0Z EURO solution for this weekend ?

Looks good on those GFS ENS long rang charts now that you posted at 324 hours but what will actually verify could be different. With this pattern change in progress it is now becoming difficult to even predict what is going to happen at the surface this coming weekend as the EURO and the GFS are completely at odds with one another within 5 days

The 0Z CMC adds another possible scenario later this week - the system crossing the south later in the week stays south - colder air is drawn into the area and then another storm develops along the coast for early next week and the results are below !

0Z Euro can't decide what to do with next weekends coastal storm now very far south of us - yesterdays 12Z had it inland close to the area and run before that was also too far south and east