NEG NAO

850s are ok and in january thats frozen here

that's why this pattern might not favor snow storms in the northern mid atlantic till those are in place - confidence around here will not be very high if we have 2 misses to the south within the next week and then we get much below normal cold and dry for another week or more - it's when the pattern with the -NAO starts to relax slightly at the end of the month into February as the -EPO and + PNA settles in is probably the most favorable time for east coast snow storms and would match perfectly climatology the January 20th - February 11th period so patience is the key IMO.

dry or stormy cold ?

yesterdays system was a prime example IMO of a system that needed to be nowcasted IMO - I was just using various radars -I didn't use any of the mesoscale models since people were complaining about them yesterday and I had plenty of notice in advance of what probably would happen in my area just using the radars........

(397) Upcoming Potentially Major Snowstorm - YouTube

If you like to follow inconsistent models look what happened to the above "event" at 0Z

model has been inconsistent and has no other reliable support for a snowstorm - 12Z Euro is a complete miss to south

Walt - IMO and from past experience on this forum its way too early to start a thread for 1/8-9 especially after reviewing the 12Z models so far - No Consistency - and the EURO misses completely at 12Z - on to the ensembles to see what they say...........

the 12Z models will start running soon - what we need for next weekend is what happened for the mid -December snowstorm - MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY ! And most models on board for a majority of NYC metro. If we get 2 or 3 days in a row of this then start the thread IMO.

Snow and ice storm, December 18-20, 1995 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)

why don't you list the highlights of next month or post graphics

did I ever think or say here I thought that Monday is a snowstorm setup ? Why don't you keep an open mind this far out ? The models have been all over the place because that first system has a say about what happens with the track of the early next week system and we are still a couple of days away from the first system..........

if you are talking long range up to 10 days here is the snowfall result:

we are still early in the game - there has been no model consistency with this system and the late week system will help determine what exactly happens with the follow up system.........and the 1st late week system is still days away.......

12Z EURO inland track for 1/3 event

still plenty of time and will depend on exactly what the weekend storm leaves behind and hopefully can drag some cold enough air down after it passes........

it is kind of odd that the previous storm did not have any cold air to tap and send our way just in time - BUT the 0Z Euro showed just cold enough air here for a changeover - this amped CMC is a good signal along with the AO plunging and increases our chances and hopefully the storm can get hold of just cold enough air for a changeover - waiting on the 12Z Euro and the ensembles of GFS

12Z unreliable 16V GFS is similar to the GFS OP the storm doesn't have enough room to develop so moves east waiting on the Canadian to finish running

not according to the 0Z Euro - like i mentioned earlier only reason I am tracking it is the Euro keeps showing it

12Z GFS still not showing the storm for early next week organizing and moving up the coast still about 5 days out though - that previous system is suppressing it on this model

as long as the EURO OP is showing this ( 2 runs in a row now) its worth tracking IMO. - but like you said needs other reliable model support. These one storm right after another are difficult for the models to accurately forecast ??

While we are waiting for the next snowstorm in the NYC Metro here is a review of snowstorms from 1953 up till the the one just a couple weeks ago: https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2014/11/each-winters-snowstorms-1970-2014.html

18Z GFS Para misses too - all this after the 12Z EURO came on board with the storm - typical model mayhem at this range....

Threat early next week is real now since EURO shows it'