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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    Still have a lot of time for changes -Actually the 12Z GFS moved closer to the Para - GFS solution at 12Z before it moves east because the previous storm is blocking it out to sea - also on the Para it changes to snow after starting as a mix
  2. NEG NAO
    This article states that this is going to be a strong SSW event similar to 84/85 - others have said there is a chance the vortex will split - strong and split what might happen then ? *Stratosphere warming watch* Strong signals now emerge for a disruptive stratospheric warming event in early January, possibly impacting the course of Winter (severe-weather.eu)
  3. NEG NAO
    All by its lonesome and too warm and more then likely wrong in some way...........
  4. NEG NAO
    and the SSW event in January 1973 did NOT lead to any significant increase in snowfall the rest of the winter as 72-73 ended up with 2.8 inches in NYC
  5. NEG NAO
    did the 73-74 winter season have a SSW event ? IMO this advertised SSW event soon is going to be the wild card this winter - it will probably change the current storm tracks we have been experiencing and also if there is a split in the PV that just makes things more uncertain and complex.*Stratosphere warming watch* Strong signals now emerge for a disruptive stratospheric warming event in early January, possibly impacting the course of Winter (severe-weather.eu)
  6. NEG NAO
    calculate the percentage from this: monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf (weather.gov)
  7. NEG NAO
    Plenty of hints on various models of an east coast storm during the 1st week in January but its too far out for them to be consistent and accurate.............
  8. NEG NAO
    The SSW is real the GFS is NOT !
  9. NEG NAO
    In addition take a look at previous seasons when NYC received over 10 in. of snow in December and report back....
  10. NEG NAO
    GEM Disagrees
  11. NEG NAO
    Post the EPO images and then you may see why............
  12. NEG NAO
    yes but DT said this is the best pattern he has seen since Jan 96 and Dec 2009
  13. NEG NAO
    There is a new thread created by Walt for next weeks potential
  14. NEG NAO
    The cold enough air does not stay entrenched prior to any storms arrival both the GFS and EURO shows this
  15. NEG NAO
    Usually we waited in the past to start Snowstorm topic till the evidence is overwhelming that there was a very good possibility but this event is still uncertain IMO EURO OP IS TOO WARM BUT EPS seems to be colder would be better if there was cold air in place before the storm arrives
  16. NEG NAO
    hopefully gone for the rest of the winter.........
  17. NEG NAO
    GFS is out to lunch IMO - look what it just cooked up for a few days later:
  18. NEG NAO
    how many members ?
  19. NEG NAO
    Until the EURO stops the LP from cutting nothing to crow about yet:
  20. NEG NAO
    need everything to line up next - 50/50 low - strong HP in southern Canada and an active storm track...……….
  21. NEG NAO
    12Z CMC is further south then 12 Z NAM with precip but doesn't look to be all frozen so IMO this event is not thread worthy YET
  22. NEG NAO
    Since nobody has been talking about the MJO lately here it is - mainly staying close to the COD which is a good thing in this pattern with all the other indicies mostly favorable for cold and snow in the east next few weeks http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php
  23. NEG NAO
    12Z NAM is mainly a New York State/Northern PA and points east of there event maybe Northwest NJ
  24. NEG NAO
    I think the 95/96 La Nina is the closest analog to this winter so far and early January has a lot of potential as it did in 1996 after a above average snowfall in December 1995 BUT its only potential as of now
  25. NEG NAO
    This reminds me of last Monday when the NAM overdid snow accumulations in the area.........
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