NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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The main problem is when folks look at seasonal yearly totals NYC which includes 5 Boroughs is mainly represented by this: monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf -
still less than an inch here in northern most Middlesex County NJ dry slots developing south of us on radar
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confusing look to the radar for sure can't figure this one out.......
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This is going to be interesting on how this is going to all come together with radar showing dry slots and precip moving fast
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are you comparing whats modeled VS. actual radar trends and surface reports south of here ?
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looking at the radars right now - the western side of this setup modeled in west VA and Kentucky is not developing - one would not think a storm is less then 12 hours away from start time here.......
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Maybe change the dates on this too around the 24th ? 21st to 22ndd looks like a total miss offshore ATM.....
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anyone else notice the NAM and other guidance shows precip mostly snow in West VA and Kentucky BUT the radars and surface reports have little or nothing ? also the southeast precip on radar is slightly further south and east then modeled need the western areas to start developing NOW CASTING TIME HAS BEGUN ! All the ingredients have to come together properly in this type of setup
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I think advisories are taken less seriously then warnings
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7 " caused by higher ratio's ? even though guidance is moving the system further south and east ? I suspect the jackpot zones will be the zones in eastern most northern NJ which only has advisories now
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BUT the official forecast says 4-6 for both east and west Union County - ,most people don't have access to the discussion only the official forecast since to get the discussion you have to know where to get it
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State of Emergencies are issued by the Governor in NJ and IMO politics has a lot to do with it sometimes so he isn't blamed for not alerting the public .........IMO state of emergencies for a moderate snowfall is questionable at best especially a Sunday event with minimal traffic concerns and schools closed the next day
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I mentioned this earlier BUT someone please explain why Western Union County has Winter Storm Warnings in effect for 4-6 inches total and Eastern Union only has Winter Weather Advisory in effect for 4 -6 inches total ???? ZFP from KOKX
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going to be interesting if that actually verifies in those locations
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wasn't he predicting 6 -10 inches for this one a couple days ago ?
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did you look at the snow totals on that link 5 - 10 inches - less coastal NJ where do you see 20 ? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/NJSnowRaw_20110111.gif
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dry slots are unpredictable till they happen - just like the central NJ banding during last Feb 16 -17 storm last year
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any maps or data ?
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Snow storm, January 11-12, 2011 - Storm Summary a fast moving storm also
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Eastern Bergen ,Eastern Essex and eastern Union should also be under warnings especially since they mention some areas could get 6 inches - they are cutting it to close IMO
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IMO Somerset , Middlesex and Mercer Counties which currently only have advisories for 3 - 5 have a 50/50 chance of being upgraded to warnings close to the start of the storm.......
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the entire region ??
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So he thinks all snow everywhere.........CMC gives LI mostly liquid
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sounds good - so what is your analysis of next weeks pattern - care to share ?
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I think its the same storm but with timing differences plus the GFS at 240 hours is not reliable
