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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    after this batch exits there is a big dry slot across PA and Ohio and everything is moving west to east until you get into southern Indiana where it is moving northeast
  2. NEG NAO
    both -lol
  3. NEG NAO
    only problem is the ICON is not weighted heavily in anybody's forecast
  4. NEG NAO
    no - not recently but most of us know his opinion already
  5. NEG NAO
    I want to hear Walts response to this snow shower forecast by Upton - still no update from MT. Holly they are probably on the phone with Upton asking them why they changed to only snow showers .........
  6. NEG NAO
    it means they don't expect a solid widespread area of precip and that we will be on the outer precip shield with dry slots - what are they going to do if the EURO moves west again tonight ? along with the other models ? playing modelology here with their fav's waiting for MT. Holly afternoon update
  7. NEG NAO
    I can't understand using "showers" is that a mistake ? I wouldn't have included that just reduce the percentage to 60 % - should have never been 70 % yesterday - but what do I know.....
  8. NEG NAO
    LOL - Upton just reduced the mid- late week storm to "snow showers likely" 60 % - can't make this stuff up - get the smelling salts ready - waiting for replies ZFP from KOKX
  9. NEG NAO
    and you can always predict how individual posters here will react as soon as there is the first negative run ( less snow) of a individual model after many positive runs ( more snow) - lets see how Upton and MT. Holly react at about 3:30 pm
  10. NEG NAO
    GFS is the outlier right now amongst most models and it handles the southern energy historically poor as opposed to the EURO -GFS flattens things out because of all of this and hence out to sea - all at this range but probably will come to its senses as we get closer to the event
  11. NEG NAO
    as of right now the timing for the immediate NYC metro is snow develops sometime after midnight Thursday and tapers off sometime in the mid- late evening Thursday and ends close to midnight so close to a 20 -24 hour event - lets see if there are any timing changes and or duration changes as we get closer and closer to showtime............BTW this is according to the 0Z Euro
  12. NEG NAO
    everyones favorite analogs for this one so far ?
  13. NEG NAO
    question now is what will the ratio's be ?
  14. NEG NAO
  15. NEG NAO
    as good as it gets on 0Z Euro
  16. NEG NAO
    that equals Blizzard conditions inland especially even NYC and metro and also eventual mixing issues central / south Jersey right along the coast especially and eastern LI
  17. NEG NAO
    as I mentioned last night NJ coast and eastern LI mixing issues if too strong and close to the coast - similar to Jan '96 - but of course lower snow totals here for the most part than '96
  18. NEG NAO
    18Z ? Got Graphics ?
  19. NEG NAO
    I wouldn't forecast snow likely on Thursday 6 days out because there is a possibility there could be a timing change - especially if it is a 2 part storm as Walt has suggested ......I would just leave it at a 40 or 50% chance for now
  20. NEG NAO
    it says the 18Z and 6Z are less skillful so thats why many METS discount them.........
  21. NEG NAO
    other METS say that is a common error the GFS makes - you don't agree ? Also what is your opinion about Upton and Mt. Holly forecasting "snow likely" for Thursday ?- so far out........
  22. NEG NAO
    18Z uses same data from 12Z no big surprise
  23. NEG NAO
    6 days in advance ? lots can go wrong why do you think Walt is playing it conservative ? Also Mt. Holly shows likely so they probably had a conference call with Upton
  24. NEG NAO
    How often do you see the words "Snow Likely" in a forecast 6 days in advance ? ZFP from KOKX
  25. NEG NAO
    wouldn't that lessen the impact and open the door to mixing changeover issues in parts of the region? the December 5-6 , 2003 storm was 2 parts so could it be similar to this ? Snow and ice storm, December 5-6, 2003 - Storm Summary
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