NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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only if the block weakens and starts moving out of the way
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thats the primary transferring its energy to the coast - Canadian showed that also - Miller B
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When you issue them with one of your future forecast packages
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thats an nteresting question ?-why is the GEFS horrible ?- I would be concerned but there is enough support from several other models to not worry yet
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one at a time -lol - where is that Philadelphia dude who was predicting the big warmup ? Also I hope sleet doesn't get involved in this that is part of the reason we still have a thick layer of ice/snow on the ground from the storm over 3 weeks ago
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Even if its only half of what most of the models are showing now its still going to be at least a SECS or MECS in many areas
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what this all comes down to is the timing of the northern energy and the southern energy and how and IF they phase together and where and IF that happens closer to the east coast. Typical Miller B setup - and as Don mentioned in his late afternoon post in the main forum "An AO-/PNA- pattern, which is forecast for the timeframe involved, has seen a number of significant or major snowstorms during the second half of February. Since 1950, New York City has seen four 6" or above snowstorms during such patterns, including the 1979 President's Day blizzard (12.7") and the February 25-26, 2010 snowstorm (20.9"). "
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Even shows rain to start just south of NYC - what we don't want is this to track too close to the coast because the cold air is marginal - although a more intense system can create dynamic cooling - still early in the game so we will probably have to go through the model madness as usual.
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The most encouraging news at 0Z was the Canadian coming on board with the coastal solution after a solution that looked similar to the just released 0Z Euro OP - its possible that the EURO is just behind a cycle- maybe didn't receive all the updated data at 0Z - who knows - the ensembles might give us a clue
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Dr. No OP in a world of its own as of 0Z Feb. 17 - the 12Z Canadian OP also had that cutter LP near the GL but changed course at 0Z
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IMO thats a good signal this should be all frozen precip this far north
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now we wait for the Euro's to see if they join the 0Z snowstorm party - when is the last time we had it "easy" around here almost week out with most models predicting a MECS this far out and it verifying ?
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Its a week system close to a week away - expect changes - as long as it doesn't turn into another sleet fest !
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Some folks here have suggested you start the storm thread when and if the time is right - some of the info you just provided can be included ?
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yes always good idea to put all your eggs into one basket
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Snow storm, February 3-4, 1995 - Storm Summary
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they are usually all over the place especially more then 5 days out thats why creating a storm thread now is not a good idea - I am really interested in what the Canadian has at 0Z - it had nothing but a LP in the Great Lakes at 12Z basically with all the southern energy and precip swinging through to its south like a front
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good thing is the water temps are only a few degrees close to 32- I think the AI is overdone if there is no support- but too far out still
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Too far out to micro manage this storm its still where we want it - its all frozen - not cutting west of us
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can't read it its blocked but probably he said there will be no storm or rain plus he just put a video out a few days ago saying nothing through March 1 -thats why you are posting it ?
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thats why ensembles are important at this range
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this
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Uncle ?
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CMC is too far north and west with that storm IMO and running the southern energy out way in front of it - plus it didn't catch on to the northern side dynamics of yesterdays storm till late in the game
