NEG NAO

I would say 2009 -2010 could be an analog for this season IF it ends up being cold and very snowy in Feb - BIG IF though ! and not a prediction ! 2009 -2010 had 3 cold months below avg Dec - Feb - a basically low snowfall of a couple inches in January- BUT a snowier December......and all time snowiest Feb of 36 inches - we are overdue to break this precip drought one way or the other

if it shows that 5 - 7 days out I will believe it plus it will be a one day or so warm up if it even verifies -12Z Euro AI

if it shows that 5 - 7 days out I will believe it plus it will be a one day or so warm up if it even verifies

the other problem is the MJO is going into the extreme right side of the Neutral Circle and there is some disagreements amongst guidance if it will enter 4-5-6 or stay in the Neutral Zone and make a left hand turn towards the colder phases - STAY TUNED !

like I said previously don't believe any models past 5 - 7 days - 12Z Canadian does not agree with you or GFS still alot of cold around

I wouldn't trust any model long range past 5 - 7 days - check this out on the EURO AI last nights 0Z vs, todays 06Z

the 540 line crashing into the GOM rarely does work out for us

IMO February is setting up to be a real battle between the constant cold air intrusions and a strengthening southern stream - plenty of storm chances....2009 -2010 featured below normal temp December and January with only a couple inches snow in January then the battle began and we ended up with 36 inches of snow in February with continued below normal temps - cold and snowiest Feb ever........

12Z Euro disagrees with Canadian and GFS

Canadian first weekend Feb - Snow Ice Storm - GFS disagrees of course

he posted a Jan 30 GFS first then posted CMC for Feb 2nd - I was referring to the Jan 30th threat on the new GFS - the CNC at hour 144 is not as organized as the GFS BUT shows precip to our west with the approaching cold air outbreak

Upton : Mostly Sunny - mid 30's

still too far out to determine exactly how this is going to set up - no consistency in the Euro yet - different solution then last nights - complex to say the least.....

thats a good signal because GFS is usually wrong 10 days out........CMC is colder

Euro agrees with CMC and GFS early Feb storm threat

Good to see that HP in southeast Canada on CMC - GFS also shows a storm to open the month

NYC is represented by CP and its unexplained low snowfall measurements...........

we are stuck in a low precip pattern - we would have more snow already if we didn't have this dry non-amplified fast flow pattern the entire winter so far

with the MJO going neutral and into 8 -1-2 in February cutter pattern is less likely

They have to do an investigation on why CP always records lower snowfall totals then other areas in the city for the most part

today is only January 22 - it has snowed in NYC into April over 2 1/2 months left

IMO with the MJO going towards the neutral center soon for a week or so then forecasted by the Euro to enter phases 8 -1 -2 through mid-February there will be continued Arctic outbreaks and they will tend to interact with the southern jet which will not be as far south as recent days/weeks as the southeast ridge is not as suppressed- so storm threats will continue to be on the table and its impossible to predict which ones will be actual snowstorms around here -BUT IMO any sustained warming or any lake cutter patterns will not be happening the next few weeks.....the main challenge now is to break this drought pattern that has persisted all winter...

BUT what are the tracks of these clippers ???? I see on the GFS op only ones that pass north of us with little moisture here..........

Much below normal precip and drought conditions also is a reason for lack of snow around here.......with dry conditions into early FEB