NEG NAO
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February is beginning to look alot like January on the 12Z GFS - cold and dry with suppression the first 1/3rd of the month at least little snowfall but chance of a coastal the 7th on a slow moving front - sound familiar ?
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will be interesting how much rain we actually receive on Friday
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Only the GFS now for next week BUT the Euro shows it a week later - IMO good idea not to start any new threads till the GFS, Canadian and Euro or at least 2 out of 3 agree on something with accumulating snow and their ensembles for at least a few runs in a row....
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this event is not exactly a drought buster as it will barely deliver enough precip in the metro to get rid of the remaining salt on the road ( don't be surprised if some towns put down more ice melter spray prior to the light storm if temps are forecasted to be close to freezing) but after friday there will be only a few piles of hard frozen snow/ice left -
Next week is now going to feature our next storm threat/thread as several models including the 0Z Euro are showing an east coast storm sometime mid - late next week
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and again mid - later next week
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Fun times ahead 1st week of Feb GFS Model – Total Snowfall (10:1 SLR) for Northeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits
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There still is hope -lol
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that was my point - you are never going to get consistent average seasonal snowfall around here year to year - there are wide variations in year to year totals - always has been that way
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until you get a few seasons in a row of above normal snowfall - go look at the record books - we go years in a row with below normal snowfall and the same with above normal.....
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The OZ Euro starts the precip during the day Friday (31st) and ends it just after midnight the (1st) -all liquid here - storm is not suppressed much obviously
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Also difference in timing of second later weekend wave CMC Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits in fact GFS says snow here earlier later in weekend and CMC is later then GFS with liquid ICON has 3 events into early next week - first is liquid the next 2 frozen Like Walt mentioned earlier individual model solutions will continue to change next few days
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Then you have the ICON which has a stronger LP that cuts into Northern New England from the midwest Models: ICON — Pivotal Weather
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this is still a system to monitor because if the colder air sets up further south and the storm is blocked as suggested by the Canadian especially with a little more moisture there still is potential for a light to moderate event near the metro - also as Walt mentioned a clipper type system need to be monitored later in the weekend which could give us snow
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Models: GDPS — Pivotal Weather
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But then the LP hits the block and is forced south with little dynamic support or moisture and then moves offshore on the GFS with little frozen here Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather
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any idea when the Euro's will correct south ?
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Agree with Walt - plus the GFS is showing some consistency and looks reasonable but the controlling factor is how the HP is positioned - timing of it moving into a favorable position and the strength - track and timing of LP - this is a thread the needle deal IMO https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025012706&fh=126
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Euro is north still as HP in Canada not moving southeast fast enough to block storm Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather But then the HP pushes southeast and the storm moves offshore and this event is over by early Saturday Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather Also Feb looks to start with normal temps and then the middle of the first week we are back to lows in single digits and teens Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather
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Because the HP in southeast Canada is moving faster to the southeast then previous runs but still steady precip makes it into LI and Central NJ Models: GEFS — Pivotal Weather
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0Z Icon is way north - the reason being is the HP in Canada is way west still the HP is the controlling factor here Models: ICON — Pivotal Weather
