NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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Central Park at 31 at 1 PM RWR from KOKX
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some forecasters were mentioning it would fall below 0 in this current extended arctic outbreak - this next one over the weekend will last only a couple days so odds of Central Park going below zero as of today are not favorable IMO -suburban locations have a better chance - plus where is the thermometer they use located and how much snow cover is left there ?
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I didn't realize the low 30's was 35 degrees - even if it reached 35 for a couple of hours then dipped into the 20's in the evening there would be very little snow melt - and thats the forecast for the entire week - low 30's for highs ZFP from KOKX
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Most of that here falls on 2/13-2/14
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hard too believe that will happen so close after that Arctic cold shot next weekend - especially with the snow/ice still on the ground and the narrow window it has before the next cold front - would expect freezing issues close to ground level - potential ice storm.
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then a few days later a rain storm ? do you buy that ?
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I have had enough of this winter already because of the extreme cold - very unusual around these parts for it to be lasting so long and could be record breaking for the length of tme at or below freezing
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have about 8 - 10 here but the top layer of an inch or 2 is ice - it is slowly getting flatter - the sun, wind evaporation and gravity reduces it slowly day by day
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not seeing it anywhere -in the short term - was just "saying" BUT chances are by mid - month we will touch 40 again....
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and it is going against the CPC outlook of well below normal temps on the 9th and these models are saying this at day 9 -AI models can't be trusted in the longer range yet
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considering how cold it has been 35 or 40 degrees a couple of days in a row would be considered a thaw
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its still 9 days out - that's all you need to know - not within forecasting anything range
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Rain storms ??
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with "slow" being the keyword a few hours above freezing will melt nothing - only thing now reducing the ice pack is evaporation and a compacting of it a natural process
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not painful at all IMO - a KU on top of this foot plus in many places solid ice pack would have been a disaster - think about it.........and temps arctic like
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thats what makes this forum - Fill in the blank
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I said "Sourthern Snows" NOT NYC snows !
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The normal is not 33 inches its a few inches less
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as you get deeper into February those large southern snowstorms become less likely everyday - NYC is now at just over 21 inches 2/3rd through MET winter just need an average February snowfall total a couple inches after that to reach normal - thats all that one can reasonably expect - anything more is icing on the cake........
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apparently you didn't look at the 06 GFS - how in the world can you call this winter a "complete failure" ?????? regardless of what happens the rest of the way .
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The northern stream flow has to relax and go more west to east and also the arctic air can't be all the way down to Georgia - these suppress the entire pattern - the models lately have been terrible because of a lack of data ( weather balloons etc out west ) BECAUSE OF CLOSED NWS OFFICES apparently.
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Thanks for the good news Walt - I think
