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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    now honestly which one would you put your money on ?
  2. NEG NAO
    if the Euro OP and ensemblles were even close to the GFS I wouldn't be discounting the GFS but its hard to get a phase with that setup. And we are only 5-6 days away
  3. NEG NAO
    of course the GFS ensembles will side with the GFS OP
  4. NEG NAO
    I meant the Euro Ensembles.........I am discounting the entire GFS Suite. Look how they mislead us on this event with all the amped up members
  5. NEG NAO
    no post them for us ?
  6. NEG NAO
    Euro and Canadian basically miss - GFS is wrong AGAIN as usual....NYC snow drought continues with no end in sight
  7. NEG NAO
    when is the last time it verified a MECS or greater over the last few years for our area ? Its shown them quite a few times over that time period
  8. NEG NAO
    IMO if the 0Z has 2 of the top 3 GFS, Euro and Canadian and at least one of their ensembles mean show a similar 18Z GFS scenario then start a storm thread but not until those conditions are met......,
  9. NEG NAO
    Because they are using Meteorology NOT Modelology.............models don't have the ability to predict exact accumulation amounts exactly this far out with banding and possible dry slot coming into play - this event is going to be a typical now casting event with surprises IMO
  10. NEG NAO
    Sounds like what happened last Feb 16-17 with that heavy band just south of I-78
  11. NEG NAO
    The 06Z Nam precip shield moved north about 30 -40 miles from the 0Z run and steadier precip doesn't enter the immediate NYC metro until mid- morning in Northern Middlesex/ Union County NJ so basically is still 2 days away.........see if this trend continues at 12Z - I would discount exact precip amounts on these model outputs right now because of heavier banding possibilities.....and drier slots - example - last Feb 16 -17 storm...
  12. NEG NAO
    Beginning to wonder IF by 12Z tomorrow the south shift over the last day or so will be reversed......and even move further north then before
  13. NEG NAO
    Read the Mt. Holly Afternoon discussion they think the precip shield is too far south and the shift south in the models was overdone
  14. NEG NAO
    They came around here in Northern Middlesex County spraying the roads with ice melt because Mount Holly said 40 % chance of snow this afternoon but Sunny here
  15. NEG NAO
    North Jersey is anywhere North Of Middlesex County - Central Jersey Middlesex County Down threw Monmouth County - Southern NJ Ocean County and points south
  16. NEG NAO
    the question is where is this going to set up ?
  17. NEG NAO
    that all depends where you reside in the region - here in Central NJ have to keep updated on this situation.......
  18. NEG NAO
    this is going to be another now casting event throughout the region - any shift 30 - 50 miles in any direction makes a difference along with banding that develops
  19. NEG NAO
    Modelology at its finest in here .............
  20. NEG NAO
    Giving up already 3 days out ? I thought you said the confluence always weakens as we get closer to the event ?
  21. NEG NAO
    exactly and we have been on this rollercoaster ride from one or 2 model run cycles in a row up and down and we still are close to 3 days away until showtime ....
  22. NEG NAO
    which locations are you talking about with zero qpf ?
  23. NEG NAO
    we are still almost 3 days away from the event - we are still on the rollercoaster ride we are only dealing with a 50 mile or so difference here between several inches and less then that........also how do they " fix this" solution? it is computer generated from their input at the time......
  24. NEG NAO
    Maybe because the models you don't have access too (which are quite a few) that they incorporate into the NBM continued the north trend ???
  25. NEG NAO
    Icon will lead the way !
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