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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    0Z EURO - perfect storm track with no cold air in place prior - need the storm to slow down west of us and cold air get here first
  2. NEG NAO
    true - a week from right now not a trace left unless the late week system delivers more snow which doesn't look likely as of now........
  3. NEG NAO
    who else lost at least half of their snow cover today ?- started with 8 1/2 inches down to 3 -4 with bare spots showing up surrounding larger trees........
  4. NEG NAO
    models are all over the place for this late week event - still a work in progress with timing issues but cold enough air close by
  5. NEG NAO
    then why does the thread title say "likely" ?
  6. NEG NAO
    any guesses as to when or if they will get 2.5 inches more to avoid a record 2 seasons in a row below 10 inches ?
  7. NEG NAO
    same here obviously - you could call this storm a bust for many but these systems are difficult to predict as Upton and MT. Holly were chasing their tails last night issuing winter storm warnings in now casting mode....
  8. NEG NAO
    these types of storms are very difficult to predict till the last few hours prior - we could have easily missed out on the heavy band....
  9. NEG NAO
    snow growth was fine at my location
  10. NEG NAO
    this is not a clipper its a weak mid- latitude cyclone - starting out in central rockies - it didn't originate in Canada
  11. NEG NAO
    Paying too much attention to the model fluctuations every 6 hours - most don't have a handle on this system........
  12. NEG NAO
    so in other words bust potential is higher then normal again for this event ?
  13. NEG NAO
    areas south of I-78 - 3-5 inches north of their 1 -3
  14. NEG NAO
    I am not sure you tell me ...........
  15. NEG NAO
    ok - keep us updated where that omega is located ?
  16. NEG NAO
    true if the heavier banding ends up there - not certain where the banding will occur as of now
  17. NEG NAO
    how are you going to determine that in advance of the storm ?
  18. NEG NAO
    just like it was safe to go with 10:1 the previous event ?- many of the individuals mentioning it are METS with a solid reputation.....temps will be in the 20's at the surface and cold enough aloft....places in south jersey might have closer to 10:1
  19. NEG NAO
    mainly If you are north of I-78 in NJ - central and south jersey are looking good now............
  20. NEG NAO
    This is a lower then normal impact event since it is happening on a Friday night into Saturday morning and traffic is much lighter with closed school and many business'. Potential of 2-4 and 3-5 IMO especially south of I-78 in NJ ...
  21. NEG NAO
    Curious as to why Walt thinks this is as short as a 4 hour and long as a 10 hour event ?? Uncertainty of speed and development of the system ????
  22. NEG NAO
    IMO the models are not taking into account the higher ratios possible ( just like they didn't account for the lower ratios of the previous storm) especially the further colder north you go in the precip field so some areas you can add up to 50% more to the totals displayed
  23. NEG NAO
    with the higher than norm 10:1 ratios majority of guidance suggests this is a 2-4 or 3-5 inch IMO event south of I-78 in NJ down to at least DC and all the way to the beaches in NJ at least
  24. NEG NAO
    down here in central NJ the snow cover is decreasing rapidly - down to an inch or so with some bare spots - by the time the weekend snow starts probably just patches of an inch or less will remain.........
  25. NEG NAO
    RGEM came slightly (about 20 miles north) at 0Z and 2M temps are in the 20's in most of metro so higher then normal ratio's - 2 -4 inches region wide possible on RGEM
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