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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    this whole situation depends on when the system reaches West Virginia and then attempts the hand off to redevelopment on the coast the Nam has it redeveloping off the Del Marva which is further south then some other models
  2. NEG NAO
    Makes one wonder......its not unreasonable
  3. NEG NAO
    really ? they won't take the chance of forecasting that..........
  4. NEG NAO
    Many well known METS had a humbling experience this winter season - next winter should only issue winter outlooks that go out 1 month max........
  5. NEG NAO
    Those maps don't tell the whole story right now - I am still going with the 2 slushy inches NYC immediate metro and more inland which I have been saying for days now BUT the metro is still sitting right on the fence and can still fall off on either side - situation is too close for comfort in either direction IMO relying on some guidance that can be unreliable at times IMO...........especially 2 days out
  6. NEG NAO
    Only way this is more is if the storm slows down and passes off the Del Marva and is stronger - like some of the solutions from a couple days ago....along with the current NAM
  7. NEG NAO
    Euro not much different in the metro then 12Z a couple slushy inches immediate NYC metro
  8. NEG NAO
    I am still going with slushy couple of inches near the coast more inland - I would expect winter weather advisories having a chance to be issued late Monday for Tuesday in NYC metro
  9. NEG NAO
    So now at 0Z so far its the Ukie/Nam/Canadian VS. GFS/ICON didn't look at Ensembles
  10. NEG NAO
    If the Euro comes south at 0Z we still have a chance - but starting tomorrow at 12Z mesoscale models should be used.......
  11. NEG NAO
    its holding hands right now with the NAM
  12. NEG NAO
    not surprising for several reasons - main one being no established cold air in front of the storm
  13. NEG NAO
  14. NEG NAO
    Players on the field are not lining up correctly to produce an east coast storm on this output - LP in in southeast Canada can't be there and no cold air again before the storm
  15. NEG NAO
    Promise ?
  16. NEG NAO
    eastern NJ and other counties in NJ don't have watches
  17. NEG NAO
    confidence is growing for a storm next weekend - start a Presidents Day Weekend Storm thread.....
  18. NEG NAO
    yes - definite storm with cold air in front of it this time
  19. NEG NAO
    Start a Thread
  20. NEG NAO
    Because the pattern change will just be developing next week nothing is in place yet eventually blocking will take hold especially after next weekend storm passes
  21. NEG NAO
    yes I know
  22. NEG NAO
    well at least by Tuesday all eyes will be on next weekends coastal storm threat
  23. NEG NAO
    looking down the road to next weekend there will be no suppression and the rain/snow line uncomfortably close
  24. NEG NAO
    whatever happens its obvious its another no big deal event with NYC measuring less then 2 inches snow...
  25. NEG NAO
    CMC is not suppressed at 12Z with the rain/snow line just weak no dynamics in mild airmass
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