NEG NAO
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we need this dry period the ground is too saturated
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February 29, 2024 - Leap Year Day 1 Snowstorm....... Today in New York Weather History: Leap Year Day (February 29) - New York City Weather Archive (typepad.com)
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Don wrote this in a post here earlier yesterday (Sunday) and this is why I say it will be no big deal "Potentially, New York City could wind up with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above during the February 1-10 period. Since 1869, there have been 9 prior cases. Five have occurred since 2000 and eight have occurred since 1990: 1952, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Seven of those nine years saw less than 10" snowfall for the remainder of the season following February 10th. Only one saw more than 20.0" (22.7", 2005). The least was the trace of snow that fell in 2020. The mean snowfall was 7.2" while the median snowfall was 6.0". In short, this could be a reinforcing signal for a below to much below normal snowfall season. The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week. Overall, February will likely wind up warmer than normal even as the second half of the month could see a sustained period of colder weather."
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it feels like winter out there tonight upper 20's but with bare ground doesn't look like winter this season here we have had barely a weeks worth of snow cover
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yes but too what ?? No big deal IMO
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EURO at this range hasn't been so accurate this season so far
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this is more realistic IMO for next week - soaking rain storm
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this will only be considered real if shown by other models multiple runs IMO
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not crazy at all but this winter has underperformed since the beginning so can't be too optimistic. This will probably verify the cold air doesn't stay in place long enough
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why is this image showing green over the metro ?
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Better ??? Also its too far out to even speculate
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ok ok - he still owes NYC 15 minus 2.3 = 12.7 min.......good luck
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when should we begin to see models catching on to this idea ?
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with 15 -23 inches ?
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can't access his quick thoughts
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right now I think similar to January's pattern change which wasn't a big deal a couple light snow events like Don mentioned in a previous post..........that Nick Gregory 15 -23 inches was some ratings hungry producer twisting his arm to say it....
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pattern changes to what ?
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with below normal snowfall ?
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true - until I see some real potential storms showing up on multiple models multiple consecutive runs and Walt starts a thread within 150 hours with cold enough air in place with a favorable track then will take this pattern change seriously........... i see
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what is happening at the surface during this period ? Where we reside.........
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take out the first 2 weeks and what does it look like ?
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Too be determined at a later date......need the northern and southern streams to interact in a way to bring storms up the coast and timing is crucial.....HP in southeast Canada needed - cutters are less likely but are still possible with not enough blocking.....
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we will know before the pattern is in place if there will also be a stormy pattern developing.
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12Z GFS - not even a fantasy longer range snowstorm - not a good signal so far - the means can look great at 500 longer range but doesn't mean there will be any snow here
