NEG NAO
-
Posts
7,490 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by NEG NAO
-
last 4 runs of just the OP ? -
who is even mentioning 4 - 8 ??? Walt says 1 -3 " right now which is being generous IMO
-
in other words the old GIGO theory In computer science, garbage in, garbage out (GIGO) is the concept that flawed, or nonsense (garbage) input data produces nonsense output. Rubbish in, rubbish out (RIRO) is an alternate wording. The principle applies to all logical argumentation: soundness implies validity, but validity does not imply soundness.
-
why would the model with the least amount of skill level be right ?? - plus the CMC is not a total rain storm
-
even though the model run of CMC showed green along the coast the clown snow map showed this
-
and 12Z CMC is a rainstorm actually in this winter the rainstorm makes more sense IMO
-
0Z EURO snow start to finish moderate accumulations in the immediate NYC metro - heavier south NJ
-
yes that is why the intensity and the timing of the heaviest precip is critical because the beginning hours of the precip don't look cold enough need a few hours of steady snowfall when the colder air arrives
-
we just experienced what happened in Central Park over the past weekend using the clown snow accumulation maps
-
best looking OP model solution at 0Z so far is the GEM - but 1 important ingredient is missing for a SECS - strong HP in southeast Canada also temps near the surface are too warm too support much accumulation in the metro
-
Euro and GFS more or less agree now - just have to get the ensembles of both on board.....
-
need the EURO to back off on the amped up solution and still have to consider all of the ensembles - this cold air on the way means business !
-
just like the gfs weaker and off the coast because there is no denying that push of arctic air
-
weaker and further east is what we need apparently to get all frozen
-
IMO right now we will start as snow in I-95 for a couple hours then mix back and forth for several hours with LI and coastal NJ going to plain rain and then as the storm starts to intensify pulling in much colder air and everyone changes back to snow subject to timing changes as various models evolve this is definitely thread worthy and please don't combine with any other event....
-
0Z Euro still shows a storm off the coast for 1/16 - IMO with that track , 986 LP and much colder air involved then last weekend this has a better potential for snow in the immediate NYC metro then last weekend regardless of what this run says - too early for rain/snow lines anyways....
-
can't say its over for 1/16 until the EURO says it is - it has shown several consistent snowstorm runs in a row - lets see if 0Z run keeps showing this
-
0Z CMC rain to start 1/16
-
EURO has now had 3 few similar runs in a row - looking good for 1/16 event
-
12Z GFS and CMC are different and not consistent with their previous runs so if the 12Z EURO resembles its previous 0Z run its best to believe that regarding next weeks potential - also considering various Ensembles ..........
