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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    I am still sticking with a repeat performance of January - a week to at least 10 or more days of wintry temps and precip starting around mid month BUT we dry out the next couple of weeks and we need too the ground is too saturated demonstrated by soggy soil and standing water on some lawns.....
  2. NEG NAO
    your reasoning is flawed and negative as usual - look at this and prove me wrong monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf (weather.gov)
  3. NEG NAO
    I have been around here since 1955 except winter 83-84 through 1995-1996 in Northern Ocean County and I have seen just about every kind of good stretch and bad stretch of winters so nothing surprises me anymore.......
  4. NEG NAO
    why ? monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf (weather.gov) Snow storm, February 11-12, 2006 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)
  5. NEG NAO
    not in this forum - certain unnamed posters always negative no matter what.......
  6. NEG NAO
    we are currently going through whats called an el nino "burst" which is going to cause a very active southern stream. Omega Block developing and heights will rise in Canada and colder air will be sent into the lower 48 just like January and we will have a wintry period the middle to latter part of February similar to January with snow chances here along the way ........
  7. NEG NAO
    this looks like a repeat of January with a week to 10 days of winter like weather and at least a couple of snowstorm chances........
  8. NEG NAO
    the upper level LP is still closed off down south which makes it more likely to ride up the coast as opposed to an open wave and is trending more north each model run - whether areas in the mid-Atlantic NYC and points further south get frozen will depend then on the position and timing of the HP in southern Canada
  9. NEG NAO
    also an Omega block is setting up moving forward beginning next week storm after storm will be riding along this southern stream slow moving and IMO a few will ride up the coast and cold enough air will provide us with the opportunity for frozen precip as HP will be in southern Canada
  10. NEG NAO
    there was a change in the GEFS ensembles overnight 0Z and 6Z closing off the wave down south which possibly can allow the system to ride up the coast since closed waves are more favorable for making that left hand turn up the coast then open waves which tend to travel more eastward -have to monitor and see if 12Z confirms the closing off of the wave
  11. NEG NAO
    ok lets have @allsnow lay out his detailed evidence - I believe someone with the MET tag over non MET tags
  12. NEG NAO
    its more about the el nino moving faster and stronger into the central regions (modoki el nino) but indications now are a complete faster collapse of the entire el nino and the beginning of la nina conditions by early spring
  13. NEG NAO
    where is your MET tag ?
  14. NEG NAO
    same here in The Swamps of Jersey - my sump pump is working overtime ..........etc etc - the OZ GFS - CMC and ICON are completely different on how they handle the block later this week - I suspect the northern stream is being overdone and as we go through the week that storm system moving through the deep south will trend north like the 12Z Canadian was hinting at.......
  15. NEG NAO
    its better not too get into a prolonged pissing contest IMO - the jury is still out on how February will turn out - maybe similar to January ?
  16. NEG NAO
    I meant ECMWF or any model
  17. NEG NAO
    most of the storms so far this season have made it north into the metro after some of the models had them suppressed at first......
  18. NEG NAO
    some of those crazy storm tracks far south on the GFS will trend north IMO - the Canadian is the first north how about the Ensembles haven't checked one thing for sure is this place is boring the mid-Atlantic forum is the place to be now...
  19. NEG NAO
  20. NEG NAO
    how accurate have their winter forecasts they released a couple of months ago been so far ?
  21. NEG NAO
    its difficult to determine who too believe anymore - the next few weeks will determine who busted and who didn't in their winter forecasts - but the METS who were predicting above normal snowfall - need a big storm (HECS) too avoid busting.......
  22. NEG NAO
    not according to DR. NO
  23. NEG NAO
    you are contradicting yourself unfortunately IMO - plus you give no reason why its unlikely...
  24. NEG NAO
    we have had snow events in unfavorable overall patterns and we have had no snowstorms in the most favorable patterns - this event is all about timing and if that HP in Canada can get in place before the storm approach's
  25. NEG NAO
    Euro using Ai ?
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