NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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12Z GFS show a similar solution and that HP in southeast Canada will be critical - problem is not enough cold air for frozen
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Euro hinting at possible coastal next week
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The media is one of the reasons they are putting down all of the salt because if they didn't and there was a major accident on an unsalted road the media would make a big deal of it and start the blame game. Same reason the schools close nowadays when a couple of inches is forecasted to fall - everyone covering their rears - wasn't like this years ago plus nowadays bad news travels fast - wasn't like this pre -internet.........in addition everyone has become lawsuit crazy...
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I think the question now is will Central Park record a total snowfall of under 10 inches for the season?. Never had 2 seasons in a row in recorded history under 10 inches - came close in 96 -97 , 97-98 - right now IMO 50-50 chance of that happening as the rest of January - very litttle snowfall and February doesn't look promising......... monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf (weather.gov) -
I believe the 12Z GFS through early Feb - no agenda here.....support comes from the current MJO phases and Upton has rain latter half of next week for a few days flooding on the way
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step down process right ?
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12Z GFS thinks so one soaking rain event starting mid week after another through first week of Feb.....
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and if the sun breaks through like reported north of us most of it will melt - I can still see blades of grass in areas of my lawn
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all the main roads even through neighborhoods have been salted heavily and now that the precip is slowing down they will begin doing that to the side roads before dark in Northern most Middlesex County there was no reason for a state of emergency .
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yes there was no reason to cancel school here but they might as well use the 3 snow days many districts have incorporated into the school calendar this school year because chances are this week might be the only real week of winter weather around here this winter. Also practically everyone who issued a long range forecast for winter 23-24 is going to bust badly the way it looks now IMO......after this week we are back to heavy rainstorms and 300 hour model driven fantasy snowstorms...
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time to start comparing radar returns with mesoscale model runs and actual surface reports to get an idea about tomorrow here.......
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my iphone screen shows snowflakes falling -lol
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Christmas Day 2022 sure felt like winter with temps topping out in the teens and lows single digits BUT bare ground so the feeling of winter was muted.........
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by that time - we will be mowing our lawns - I bet we have at least a couple 70 + degree days in February..
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and we will be analysing the longer ranger model hours wondering when and if we will see any more snow this winter.....
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Red Sky in the morning Sailors take warning..........
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its more like walking on old iced cement
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because NYC metro is still in a snow drought like it or not with only around 2 inches through January 18 and I would bet we will tracking dry slots tomorrow with many areas ending up underperforming and south Jersey getting at least twice as much as the metro...........
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As the precip begins to approach the area later tomorrow start looking at radars and surface reports and try and analyse which models are handling the storm most accurately.........
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you folks are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to analyse which model is right and or will trend in whatever direction. IMO this comes down to a now casting event using radar trends starting tomorrow just like what happened during yesterdays storm. Only thing that is certain is the immediate metro will be frozen mainly snow. No model can determine exactly where the lightest and heaviest bands or dry slots will set up exactly.........
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I would wait till later Friday evening..................In other words - now casting
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As of right now Fridays event will be close too a repeat of todays event regarding accumulation - 1 -3 except will be all snow and will fall mainly during daylight hours
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we need a snowstorm around here that can score higher then 1-3 inches - ever consider that ?
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snow has changed to Mix /Freezing Rain here Union/Middlesex county border NJ and looks to be changing Newark/Elizabeth with the precip band moving northeast
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the HRR is overdone and I have my doubts about the coastal increasing coverage around here
