NEG NAO
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and others have their Magic 8 balls and Ouiji Boards
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the other members of the ensembles showing the same ?
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how about when the EURO was suppressed and too far east with last weeks storm at this range and the GFS was not ? Make sense out of that......
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18Z GFS (with outdated Radiosonde data ) shows that the HP forced the LP to develop further south thus rain changing to snow
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because the storm is coming out of the southwest faster than the previous 0Z Euro run allowing it to cut- this could still change back to a slower further south redevelopment in future runs allowing the HP to set up shop in southeast Canada faster forcing redevelopment further south of us - still a lot of time left......
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Euro has been on board along with the ICON
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its there now with that HP in southeast Canada - and a favorable storm track and also climatology on our side yes even in a warmer pattern we can have brief periods of winter like weather
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0Z ICON
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nobody knows for sure all guess work.......just like the winter outlooks written in November/December that flopped
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considering how weird the weather has been around here the last 2 years have to keep our options open for the last few days of January to see if we get one of those frozen events that happen sometimes in an unfavorable pattern IMO......
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Upton has partly sunny around 50 as of last nights update
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need the cold enough air and HP to arrive in southeast Canada first and cold enough air here first before the storm moves towards it but that doesn't seem to be on the table as of now - still some sort of possibilities for changes in timings of these features ??
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there hasn't been a major coastal snowstorm in over 2 years nobody ever said that is possible
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12Z GFS show a similar solution and that HP in southeast Canada will be critical - problem is not enough cold air for frozen
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Euro hinting at possible coastal next week
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The media is one of the reasons they are putting down all of the salt because if they didn't and there was a major accident on an unsalted road the media would make a big deal of it and start the blame game. Same reason the schools close nowadays when a couple of inches is forecasted to fall - everyone covering their rears - wasn't like this years ago plus nowadays bad news travels fast - wasn't like this pre -internet.........in addition everyone has become lawsuit crazy...
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I think the question now is will Central Park record a total snowfall of under 10 inches for the season?. Never had 2 seasons in a row in recorded history under 10 inches - came close in 96 -97 , 97-98 - right now IMO 50-50 chance of that happening as the rest of January - very litttle snowfall and February doesn't look promising......... monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf (weather.gov) -
I believe the 12Z GFS through early Feb - no agenda here.....support comes from the current MJO phases and Upton has rain latter half of next week for a few days flooding on the way
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step down process right ?
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12Z GFS thinks so one soaking rain event starting mid week after another through first week of Feb.....
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and if the sun breaks through like reported north of us most of it will melt - I can still see blades of grass in areas of my lawn
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all the main roads even through neighborhoods have been salted heavily and now that the precip is slowing down they will begin doing that to the side roads before dark in Northern most Middlesex County there was no reason for a state of emergency .
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yes there was no reason to cancel school here but they might as well use the 3 snow days many districts have incorporated into the school calendar this school year because chances are this week might be the only real week of winter weather around here this winter. Also practically everyone who issued a long range forecast for winter 23-24 is going to bust badly the way it looks now IMO......after this week we are back to heavy rainstorms and 300 hour model driven fantasy snowstorms...
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time to start comparing radar returns with mesoscale model runs and actual surface reports to get an idea about tomorrow here.......
