Jump to content

NEG NAO

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,490

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    we have been going through and will continue to go through various trends the next few days hard to determine which way this will go........plus each 0Z and 12Z run will have updated and more accurate Radiosonde data fed into them.....
  2. NEG NAO
    yes 60 hour rule and then everyone will be looking at the various Km's 3 and 12 and 32
  3. NEG NAO
    the various models are still not in agreement on the track of the storm and the strength and location of the HP to the north - EURO should be interesting in an hour or so
  4. NEG NAO
    I find this hard to believe I will get 16 inches
  5. NEG NAO
    where is the HP and the strength ?
  6. NEG NAO
    The most important players in this setup are the HP in southeast Canada and the 50/50 IMO - the HP has to be at least 1030 and stay anchored and not weaken
  7. NEG NAO
    The HP is weaker on the CMC and slightly north of the GFS 1027 vs. 1032
  8. NEG NAO
  9. NEG NAO
    0Z ICON Northeast
  10. NEG NAO
    0Z ICON
  11. NEG NAO
    huh ? That was a blizzard and was suppressed February 5–6, 2010 North American blizzard - Wikipedia
  12. NEG NAO
    Going to be a heavy wet snow where it falls.......Nam is most trustworthy under 60 hours
  13. NEG NAO
  14. NEG NAO
    18Z GFS
  15. NEG NAO
    that one starts as frozen
  16. NEG NAO
    so you are taking the suppression solutions off the table ?
  17. NEG NAO
  18. NEG NAO
  19. NEG NAO
    Ensembles don't agree with the GFS OP suppression idea - good signal for now
  20. NEG NAO
    If anyone wants to too take a stroll down memory lane - check out all the confusion 2 days before the 2010 BOXING Day event - people are even discussing individual model initialization errors - maybe we should start doing that again
  21. NEG NAO
    did they make this map before or after viewing the 12Z models ? regardless they apparently are discounting the suppressed solutions
  22. NEG NAO
    But the ICON came North - - the ENSEMBLES of these models and the 12Z Euro and ENSEMBLES might make this more clearer - I think the only solution off the table right now is the soaking rainstorm scenario
  23. NEG NAO
    Total confusion so far CMC OP and GFS OP totally different - BUT ICON came north which was suppressed up till now - no one can make an accurate forecast for this weekend YET IMO and waiting out west is the Jan 10-11 system with strong HP to the north
  24. NEG NAO
    but you need some agreement amongst the models and several model runs of it in a row to start gaining confidence.They are all over the place
  25. NEG NAO
    just over 12 hours ago Walt wrote this to start the thread - hard to take suppession that seriously yet " but it's possible that next Sundays probable wintry event will shift a little more inland with rain dominating along the coast."
×
×
  • Create New...