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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    Going to be a heavy wet snow where it falls.......Nam is most trustworthy under 60 hours
  2. NEG NAO
  3. NEG NAO
    18Z GFS
  4. NEG NAO
    that one starts as frozen
  5. NEG NAO
    so you are taking the suppression solutions off the table ?
  6. NEG NAO
  7. NEG NAO
  8. NEG NAO
    Ensembles don't agree with the GFS OP suppression idea - good signal for now
  9. NEG NAO
    If anyone wants to too take a stroll down memory lane - check out all the confusion 2 days before the 2010 BOXING Day event - people are even discussing individual model initialization errors - maybe we should start doing that again
  10. NEG NAO
    did they make this map before or after viewing the 12Z models ? regardless they apparently are discounting the suppressed solutions
  11. NEG NAO
    But the ICON came North - - the ENSEMBLES of these models and the 12Z Euro and ENSEMBLES might make this more clearer - I think the only solution off the table right now is the soaking rainstorm scenario
  12. NEG NAO
    Total confusion so far CMC OP and GFS OP totally different - BUT ICON came north which was suppressed up till now - no one can make an accurate forecast for this weekend YET IMO and waiting out west is the Jan 10-11 system with strong HP to the north
  13. NEG NAO
    but you need some agreement amongst the models and several model runs of it in a row to start gaining confidence.They are all over the place
  14. NEG NAO
    just over 12 hours ago Walt wrote this to start the thread - hard to take suppession that seriously yet " but it's possible that next Sundays probable wintry event will shift a little more inland with rain dominating along the coast."
  15. NEG NAO
    also suppression has not been an issue so far this season and there is really nothing to suppress it completely IMO -partially yes
  16. NEG NAO
    me too - a soaking rain storm is off the table as of now
  17. NEG NAO
    0Z Icon was suppresed along with previous runs of it
  18. NEG NAO
    further south and east 0Z EURO
  19. NEG NAO
    yes
  20. NEG NAO
    agree 100 % just review the larger storms threads here starting with the Boxing Day 2010 storm here - there were questions with that one a few days prior
  21. NEG NAO
  22. NEG NAO
    classic Raritan River NJ rain/snow line to start
  23. NEG NAO
  24. NEG NAO
  25. NEG NAO
    stronger also 988 vs. 994 at 12Z
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