NEG NAO

someone please refresh this old mans fading memory - what is the usual outcome with model agreement this far out ?

how about the mid/late week event too ? Not sure how that is going to play out yet

way too early for a storm thread IMO - wait till at least Tuesday

Now - what can go wrong ? lol 8-9 days out less then 50 % confidence of this actually verifying IMO - the key to this event is that HP in southeast Canada being strong enough and staying in that position along with the 50/50 low

0Z GFS Op is too far east but cold enough for the mid/late week possible event but the 0Z CMC is all frozen here

I don't like posting 198 hour 18Z anything BUT

985 low just south then scoots out to sea - still plenty of room and time for this to turn into our first snow over 2" in close to 2 years

12Z GDPS

maybe it is a good sign for chances of frozen precip that the GFS and Euro are suppressed at this range for the next two storms Jan 4-5 and 6-7 ? Both ensemble mean GEFS and GEPS at 0Z are suppressed BUT the GEPS brings some precip to southern areas of the NYC metro....

what are your expectations regarding snowfall through the colder then average period through Jan 10 ? For NYC metro....

0Z Euro is Very suppressed - unless the GFS and or the Euro stop the suppression today chances rise the mid/late week storm misses us IMO - plus we don't need another rain event - many of our yards are like swamps and sump pump is over worked

the long range storm still in fantasy land for the 8th has colder air in place BUT the storm is being shoved out to sea by that LP north of Lake Superior that shows up in this GFS run BUT the GEM does not show the LP north of Lake Superior instead a 1030 HP in Maine BUT this is going to change many times in the coming days

can't say that with any certainty because the GFS is suppressed with cold enough air in place - a compromise solution would include frozen precip use the 534 line as the rain/snow line also have to start looking at the ENSEMBLES more closely in these borderline situations

0Z GEM shows a rain/snow mix for NYC metro - the GFS is suppressed for the mid week storm

modeling has been all over the place run to run - confusing everyone even pro METS - and causing an emotional roller coaster ride on this forum - so expect anything IMO

some models showing suppression for next weeks events with cold enough air within range BUT suppression has not been a problem the last month

Not at the moment - recent model runs show a suppressed pattern next week - lets see if that changes at 0Z

exactly - the pattern is changing and the models are totally confused right now - run to run continuity and model agreement is not there past a few days....

he didn't say "the coast is toast" this is what he said " There is no doubt(in my mind) that events around the 4th, 7-8th, 10th and possibly well beyond, provide opportunity for snow-ice, at least down to I84 per 24 hours snow depth change ensembles in near normal temps though probs for more than 1" are rather low. NY eve ball drop might even show flurries nearby NYC w-n suburbs. All ensembles are above normal precip 4th-14th. Is it rain or snow/ice for I84? Even a chance of snow down to I95. "

These model runs past a few days are all over the place - nothing is set in stone IMO

Maybe a month from now we will be saying over 11" of snow this month..........

This is the type of pattern we want setting up close to mid January - the GFS has shown this for a few runs now - we don't need arctic blasts in mid January just cold enough air and the storm track just south of us with the rain/snow line near the Mason/Dixon line and cold HP in southeast Canada

This system coming up the coast late next week might have possibilities for NYC metro boarder line temps - nice track off the coast - climatology favorable

This coming weekend.........take any model data past 120 hours with a grain of salt though...