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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    need the others transferring their energy off the Del Marva not the Central Jersey Coast
  2. NEG NAO
    misses to the south again ..........
  3. NEG NAO
  4. NEG NAO
  5. NEG NAO
    12Z Euro more frozen then 0Z long ways to go and too close to accurately call
  6. NEG NAO
    Question of the day is what will the EURO show in a couple of hours ? and don't forget all the ENSEMBLES
  7. NEG NAO
    12Z CMC solid MECS
  8. NEG NAO
    long way to go - trended towards EURO
  9. NEG NAO
    yes Dr. NO spoils the party - until it comes on board confidence is low this far out IMO reason is the HP north of us is in the wrong position to feed cold enough air in closer to the coast track New England crew wins with this scenario
  10. NEG NAO
    no need for a late week thread 1/4 - 1/5 as of now as the 0Z Euro agrees with the GFS out to sea track
  11. NEG NAO
    coastal NJ and eastern half of LI will get mixing IMO and if it bumps any further west NYC metro will too ......
  12. NEG NAO
    looks cold enough at the start with the 528 line directly over the metro what are the water temps now ?
  13. NEG NAO
    yes the Ensembles have to be considered the mean and individual members
  14. NEG NAO
    well I took a nap earlier - hope DR. NO agrees with his/her fellow models - also don't forget the Ensembles
  15. NEG NAO
    someone please refresh this old mans fading memory - what is the usual outcome with model agreement this far out ?
  16. NEG NAO
    how about the mid/late week event too ? Not sure how that is going to play out yet
  17. NEG NAO
    way too early for a storm thread IMO - wait till at least Tuesday
  18. NEG NAO
    Now - what can go wrong ? lol 8-9 days out less then 50 % confidence of this actually verifying IMO - the key to this event is that HP in southeast Canada being strong enough and staying in that position along with the 50/50 low
  19. NEG NAO
  20. NEG NAO
    0Z GFS Op is too far east but cold enough for the mid/late week possible event but the 0Z CMC is all frozen here
  21. NEG NAO
    I don't like posting 198 hour 18Z anything BUT
  22. NEG NAO
    985 low just south then scoots out to sea - still plenty of room and time for this to turn into our first snow over 2" in close to 2 years
  23. NEG NAO
    12Z GDPS
  24. NEG NAO
    maybe it is a good sign for chances of frozen precip that the GFS and Euro are suppressed at this range for the next two storms Jan 4-5 and 6-7 ? Both ensemble mean GEFS and GEPS at 0Z are suppressed BUT the GEPS brings some precip to southern areas of the NYC metro....
  25. NEG NAO
    what are your expectations regarding snowfall through the colder then average period through Jan 10 ? For NYC metro....
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