NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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have to begin to see some run to run continuity and support from other models to start getting excited IMO. Also I don't buy into the suppressed look - this season so far suppression has not been an issue...
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in a day or 2 the mesoscale models are the ones to start looking at in this situation IMO - someone in the forum might see some flakes....
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what I am also watching for is if it sits and stalls there long enough it might generate its own cold air - climatology is getting more favorable for that to happen IMO - I wouldn't even be considering this if the Canadian wasn't on board with a system along the coast - confidence increases if the Euro shows the same in a couple of hours......also we are not even sure how much cold air will be around after the first storm passes or how strong the second system and placement along the coast will be
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12Z GFS OP - shows the 1st storm passing by mid week then the upper low and more energy is left behind with not enough cold air to support frozen except in the Apps by late 12/29 early 12/30 a 993 LP off the south jersey coast - something to watch to see if colder air is somehow drawn into this system in future runs 12Z CMC shows similar system 12Z Euro has low placement too far offshore and south
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there is no reason the EURO can't verify - the cold air at all levels will not be easy to move out of place - its a fresh injection and the primary will be weakening as it throws its energy to the secondary.......
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I agree - first of all the EURO is wrong on Pivitol weather with its snow accumulations south of I-78 take a closer look at the precip types........
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it would be cool to have 2 separate storm threads going at the same time but not enough confidence to create a late weekend thread YET........plus this coming storm has more questions than answers right now and low confidence...
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are we going to make a new thread if this keeps showing up for Sunday on various models ????- it first showed on the Euro yesterday
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what evidence do you have that this will all shift south ?
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the last day we have been talking ICE for most of NYC metro NOT SNOW.....
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12Z Canadian is showing basically what the GFS has - a significant Icing event for areas mainly from central NJ and northbound....
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once again - NYC metro - sleet
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its not over for NYC south - chance this could turn into a sleet storm
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not the frozen line
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Pivitol vs. Tropical Tidbits one includes sleet the other doesn't
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Upton took the easy way out for Friday Snow and rain upper 30's
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now watch it become one2 negatives = a positive theory.....
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yes a snow storm
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it's obvious the WPC is using a blend of all the models - also I think this has a chance of redevelopment off the coast because it will only be allowed to move so far north and west coming out of the southwest of us because of the HP to the north and west - timing of the movement of that HP is critical IMO
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Maybe we should just go with this for now until it backs down and call it a day.....
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that is impossible to predict this far out what the temp will be at the surface
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I said majority - thinking 75 % liquid and 25 % frozen mainly at the start and maybe some frozen at the tail end
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My guess is for NYC south the majority will be in the form of liquid precip later next week.........that was quite a jump north in 6 hours
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kinda like yourself ????
