NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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One model 1 run BUT still shows a weak coastal in the benchmark track and energy from the clipper - its obvious as with many of these type events in mid December the place to be for more snow is from the Raritan River north and west in NJ which with the wind NE is a couple of degrees colder then points south and east - still plenty of time to go -
IMO anyone discounting any mesoscale model solution today ( the ones showing heavy snow or the ones showing next to nothing ) is taking a big chance........this storm is going to be a now casting event......with possibly a wide range in amounts region wide because of precip rates and precip type........
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agreed - anything is possible - no one was expecting that heavy slim west to east band to set up in the Central NJ during last Feb 16 -17 event - but could still go the other way with little or nothing - good chance though that this will end up being a now casting event watching rain - snow lines on radar and heavier precip developing changing to snow as the event wears on.........
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We can talk about it because in situations and setups similar to Friday night into Saturday and especially with a possible Norlons - models have a hard time handling those especially a couple days in advance IMO some areas will over perform BUT where ?
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We will be entering Mesoscale model range tomorrow and it would just take a shift 50 -75 miles west for this to produce a light to moderate snowfall for areas in Central/ Northern NJ and possibly further east if temps are low enough to support frozen - on the other hand any small shift east gives us next to nothing..........
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by Sunday morning wind chills single digits and temps in the teens ........month will avg below normal
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thats the product of this hyper active pacific flow .........
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when you least expect - its going to happen - not many below average by a few degrees Decembers have no snow even 83 and 89 had over an inch.......
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The problem with using Central Park DATA is that it is not representative of what actually fell across other areas of the immediate metro - such as last year -when areas just west and southwest of the city in Union/Middlesex County NJ received almost 20 inches total for the season - by the way if you can see The Freedom Tower or the Empire State building from certain points in your town in the distance you are in the immediate NYC metro......
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I would think if it does happen it would be an eastern half of NJ - NYC and Long Island/Connecticut event - considering how odd the weather has been this year wouldn't be a surprise if areas near PA/NJ border get snow showers and eastern most NJ and points east gets much more snow and or rain...........
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amazing you have that time period which is 9 - 16 days away all figured out ! congrats !
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this is a torch ??plus on New Years day we are going back into a colder pattern plus things will change probably too far out
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Taking into account sky conditions and or if its raining ? Difficult to get to 60 in Late December with lack of daylight hours also and trying to predict over 10 days in advance - the whole setup could change by then........
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IMO its too far out to determine how much above normal........
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Even though its going to be above normal for a few days after the holidays IF todays model runs are accurate the cold will return right after the 1st of the new year and might stick around for a longer period of time as the MJO is progged to go into phase 8 too
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True but that storm and next weekends potential had/have plenty of cold enough air and strong HP to work with.......
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If you go back to the beginning of this forum in 2010 - we were saying the same thing about the Boxing Day storm this far out..........and the weird thing is that was a La Nina winter with a similar beginning to the month a slight shift in the location of the HP and the storm makes a world of difference - still over 7 days out
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if there is no snow on the ground it turns fairly impressive into a yawn IMO....
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Most NYC Decembers that end up averaging more then 3 degrees below normal or under 36 degrees end up with at least 7 inches of snow BUT there are notable exceptions in recent memory 1989 and 1983.........which ended up with under 2 inches snow total for the month
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Follow the MJO
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yes especially when its not the solution we want to see,,,,,,,
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chances are one will be correct...maybe both......
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We also need a block with that HP in southeast Canada - problem is past day 5 -7 the models are disagreeing with other models and they are all disagreeing with themselves run to run - lets see if the 0Z GFS has the same solution as the 18Z - I tend to doubt it at this point
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We have no idea what will happen past 5 - 7 days at best yesterdays 12 Z Euro OP centered on Saturday 12/21 is completely different today as an example relating to the potential storm of yesterdays run
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This is why you can't trust any model past Day 5- 10 Verified -Dec 2 12Z Run Vs. Dec 8th 12Z Run concentrated on Dec 12 12Z GFS Model – 850mb Temp Anomaly for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits CMC Model – 850mb Temp Anomaly for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits Also IMO anybody who knows what the weather will be like Christmas week today is kidding themselves........
