NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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Thats the sign of a crummy winter in NYC......... -
Mainly just rain storms in the immediate NYC metro - this winter continues to be a real clunker here
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18Z GFS OP is off its rocker
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I was told they are unscientific and shouldn't be posted.........but there are going to be wide differences in total if any of these longer range outputs verify IMO
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I would be very surprised if there isn't a change in the models output over the next 2 or 3 days as more accurate data is fed into the models before they run........
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a few miles will = wide variation in totals IMO - remember folks we still have between 4 -5 days for things to change
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Here is a list of the 850 temperatures on the 12Z Euro in my area of north central NJ starting at 7 pm Saturday: Sat - 7pm +12.2 Sun 1 am +10.4 Sun 7 am +14 Sun 1 pm +17.6 Sun 7pm +23 Mon 1am +23 Mon 7 am +35.6 so sometimes between Mon at 1 -7am the upper atmosphere doesn't support snow what the mid level and surface show I haven't looked at
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same thing will happen at some point later Sunday ...........
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Thats a big part of the problem here if you like to see more than a few inches snow out of this along the coast.........
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Here is my analog for this upcoming weekend storm Snow and ice storm, March 2-3, 1994 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)
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Good for what/who ? If you would explain your theory some of us might be convinced !
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This can be anything from a crippling blizzard in NYC metro to a snow to heavy rainstorm - would be nice to have fresh cold air in place but chances are there will be a little too much ocean air involved at some point for coastal areas especially IMO....need an offshore track to help prevent this....
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Now we wait and see what the Canadian does with this potential event - its starting to run but sometimes like last night takes forever to run...
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the ICON mixes us with rain and cuts down on snow amounts in metro
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Seems like the GFS has been leading the parade so to say this month - maybe that upgrade they did not long ago was the real deal. For this weekend storm it was the first to take the storm directly south from Canada to the Gulf Coast then out to sea south of us. The Euro and the Canadian changed its output a couple runs later following the GFS solution. Then the GFS reversed course and gives us a major coastal storm the last 2 cycles. Lets see if the Canadian and the Euro start trending towards the GFS soon and the GFS solution stays basically the same. So IMO give the GFS the benefit of the doubt and also I am only describing the OP solutions not the ensembles !!!!! and here is a non-scientific output for you guys who don't like them
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IMO only the Canadian will change and trend towards the GFS and Euro.........
