NEG NAO

1916-17 0 0 0 0 T 14.5 5.8 12.2 11.7 6.5 0 0 50.7 1922-23 0 0 0 0 1.0 8.0 24.5 18.8 8.1 T 0 0 60.4 1947-48 0 0 0 0 T 30.2 15.3 13.6 4.7 0 0 0 63.8 1960-61 0 0 0 T 0 18.6 16.7 18.2 1.2 T 0 0 54.7 1963-64 0 0 0 0 T 11.3 13.3 14.1 6.0 T 0 0 44.7 1995-96 0 0 0 0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 0 0 75.6 2013-14 0 0 0 0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 0 0 57.4

what makes you think there will even be a storm at 12Z on the Euro ?

18Z GFS is moving precip further north into our area again

I would be careful totally discounting early next weeks potential . Take a look back in this forum to the Dec 26, 2010 Boxing Day threads. Just 3 days before the event there was a post that the Euro was a complete miss to the east and other models were forecasting a quarter inch or less of liquid......We all remember what actually happened.............

what's scary is its only about 5 days away - what a bust if we get nothing

Most pattern changes are challenging and difficult to predict...........but I think we will have opportunities down the road in the not too distant future......

This looks like it has the potential to start frozen in most of the metro - (if this system is even real) and because of the blocking high to the north once it gets too western PA it will redevelop off the coast which might help keep precip frozen here

you know its a bad winter around here when Bluewave gets into a pissing contest with Allsnow - anyways the 12Z GFS will probably be on its own with any hope of the front slowing down and allowing cold enough air to filter in before the precip shuts off to give some coastal folks a cheap thrill, After that the GFS show high and dry with seasonable cold for a few days then has a few east to west LP movers and depending where the cold enough boundary and if LP passes south of us there is some potential for light to moderate events .......

I'd like to see this go into the COD and stay there some of our biggest snowstorms happened while the MJO was in the COD

There is basically no second wave on the 12Z Euro - but yesterday there was so still have to wait and see

I agree

actually it might be good that next weeks 2nd LP is offshore now to far south and east - just a few miles adjustment to the northwest and we have a snowstorm here next week - but since there is a lack of posting recently on here not many folks are thinking positively about this......

another miss to the south on 12Z GFS

you agree with this or not ? I think its 30 % ( as of now )possible - I don't think the pattern supports the second wave ( if its real )early next week passing south of us...

12Z Euro similar to the 12Z GFS

The 12Z Canadian has no second storm for next week and 0 snowfall through 10 days

Can't make this stuff up the 12Z GFS develops the LP early next week further south and west in northern Louisiana and it moves east notheast and misses most of the area to the south

"Red Sky in the morning , Sailor's Warning !" Radar here shows Virga throughout north central NJ - 35 here on the border of Middlesex/Union County - maybe a mix to start later if we are lucky...

It is interesting what the GFS OP is trying to do on the last couple of runs -developing LP on the front coming through early next week and turning it into a rain to heavy snow scenario here - but this is probably going to go away in future runs

as we get closer the GFS agrees with the current pattern

Think the 2021-2022 skunk stinker potential candidate will be worth it.???

Regardless until it is not included in meteorological winter officially it is still a winter month.

until we have a few years in a row of below normal temps and or above average snowfall.......these things go in cycles - many people 2 months ago thought it would be cold and snowy this month....

Based on what ? Take a look at this and you can see over the last 100 plus years the wide fluctuations in temps in December. Same goes for snowfall.... monthlyannualtemp.pdf (weather.gov)

don't start the trolling nonsense - I have been here since day 1 before 2010 and I have supported you over the years many times - this time I have an opposing view. I will not be sold on any snowstorms in the metro till there is clear evidence of a pattern change to support it ! Which at the present time there is not .