NEG NAO

thats a relief I was waiting for someone like you to clear things up.......

overall but other things interfere that greatly affect the finer details and outcomes .........

MJO is just part of the equation...........

1st of what ?

Front going through

You don't need snowfall to have winter weather FYI...........

Yes winter weather hasn't really started yet here - meteorological winter started December 1st. Trusting any model past 5 days in this pattern is a gamble IMO

You hit the nail right on the head with this post - with "And correcting warmer we get closer. Nyc now closing in on 50 for xmas. A few days ago, it was near freezing"

How dry we are ..............

does it really matter ? a few rain showers possible especially south and east

Nobody has any idea how this all is going to play out after day 5 - the models keep flip flopping all over the place the PNA indice forecast is unreliable and there are a few other unanswered questions - one is if the - NAO will cause suppression down the road ........

Doesn't look good if you want cold and snow here - look at the southeast

I'll believe that for the metro when I experience it and after it verifies.......

Lets get realistic here - many people here including myself and have been making assumptions that have turned out wrong ! This pattern has been fooling many people the last month and models past 3 -5 days have been generally useless giving conflicting output every couple of days for the longer range. IMO the key to the winter outlook past Christmas is the PNA - the AO and NAO are favorable for winter weather and have been consistent in their output for favorable for winter weather - the PNA is the one to keep an eye on IMO - will this trend towards neutral and possibly positive territory verify ??

and we all know what happened 12/26/2010

Also less snow then GFS

Suprised nobody posted this clownthis morning

Thats the problem with a block if it's too strong and in the wrong position suppression is a problem....

Still a "work in progress" IMO plenty of potential beginning next week !

Don't give up on the chance of a White Christmas around here this could look alot more wintry then shown here because the models are still adjusting to the real pattern developing.....

and still the possibility of a white christmas

Only about 11 days away

Reminds me of 2010 when we spent Christmas Eve and Day tracking the Boxing Day Blizzard......

Both Chicago and NYC get their first ? snow of the season on Christmas and or Boxing Day

There are signs the PNA will be moving towards neutral or positive territory around the New Year