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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    with the EURO showing snow all the way down into Delaware ??????
  2. NEG NAO
    Looking further down the road to later this week IMO if the 03/15 0Z models such as the Euro show the system to the south similar to this 12Z out - its time to start a storm thread for it
  3. NEG NAO
    I think the Euro is a good compromise right now compared to the snowy GFSv16 and the other models showing nothing in the immediate NYC metro
  4. NEG NAO
    Only model showing significant accumulations in immediate metro are is GFSv16 - the new kid in town - taking over for the old sometimes unreliable GFSv15 - can't get onboard for anything more then a few snow showers until other guidance shows significant precip - I would keep an eye on the late week system - big strong 1042 HP in southeast Canada and a couple of systems passing just to the south
  5. NEG NAO
    This possible event is about thread the needle as you can get IMO . Too bad that HP and all the confluence / convergence involved would just relax a bit and get in a better position to allow the precip to reach here instead of being driven mainly south of us.........
  6. NEG NAO
    Now all of a sudden the EURO offers some hope for next week
  7. NEG NAO
    I think as of now the EURO OP is the model of choice - meaning basically a non-event throughout most of metro maybe some light precip northern zones as of right now.....hopefully things will change....
  8. NEG NAO
    The circus is in town...........
  9. NEG NAO
    and March 1956 had 21 inches of snow and April 4 inches at NYC.......
  10. NEG NAO
    12Z GFSv16
  11. NEG NAO
    12Z GFS
  12. NEG NAO
    06 Gfsv16 - 0Z Euro Op Comparison
  13. NEG NAO
    Also the time of day/night snowfall determines whether we have to shovel - overnight snowfalls produce the greatest accumulation in late March/early April especially if intensity is lacking............also now much indication on the 12Z models when or if the next snowfall will materialize around the bulk of the metro
  14. NEG NAO
    Any idea when NYC will have their opportunity to get the 1.4 inches of snow they need to reach 40 inches for the season ?
  15. NEG NAO
    the 12Z GFS16v surface feature is once again slightly west of where it was at 06Z BUT the interaction on the 500mb vorticity is not good enough yet....
  16. NEG NAO
    Euro OP made a significant move west and stronger and more organized at 0Z compared to 12Z here - it just has to move about 200 - 250 miles west and this is a coastal storm - upper air dynamics has to change further in order to tuck the surface feature closer in towards the coast instead of kicking it out to sea before it has a chance of gaining latitude.....12Z runs today are critical -at least hold steady or keep trending in the right direction-- seems like the 2 best models to trust in this situation IMO are the EURO suite - OP - EPS etc and the GFSv16 's..........
  17. NEG NAO
    I wouldn't totally give up on next weekends possible east coast storm - there is a storm offshore and a few times this season already after first showing potential the models lose the storm only to go back to previous more promising solutions within a few days of the event - if you look closely at the 500mb vorticity - notice anything familiar preventing this storm from coming more north and closer to the coast ???
  18. NEG NAO
    18Z GFSv16 vs. 12Z GFSv16
  19. NEG NAO
    vs.
  20. NEG NAO
    check those amounts out right on the Jersey coast Walt - and Long Island too - 21 inches southern DelMarva ???I doubt if that will happen only there - what do you think ?
  21. NEG NAO
    IMO this is where we want to be about a week away on the GFS surface maps - don't want to be in the bullseye YET - just a shift 100 -150 miles to the west of the surface LP - sharpening up the trough and we will be dealing with at least a SECS - that HP in southern Canada is also very important
  22. NEG NAO
    In other words there is still the possibility of the storm tracking too close to the coast since you mentioned it could still be another rainstorm there ? There will be a fresh injection of cold enough air from Canada just prior to the possible storms arrival which is a needed ingredient for a SECS . Also hard to believe this storm will be suppressed like the ones in January when the blocking was too extreme or are the flows this time around going to be to separate and fast not allowing any type of phasing along the coastal plain ?
  23. NEG NAO
    Any guesses when in March Central Park will get the 1.4 inches of snow in order to reach 40 inches for the season ??
  24. NEG NAO
    CMC offers a chance of a coastal next weekend
  25. NEG NAO
    When is the last year NYC metro had significant snow on the ground the entire month of February ?
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