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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. The midweek system has a Ohio Valley cutter trying to move too far north IMO and then redevelops too far north of us on the 12Z GFS so we end up with mainly ice to start with and it changes to rain on the 12Z GFS
  2. As I mentioned last night and I posted a NAM model run from a few days ago here it seems like many models are acting the same way they did prior to this past Sundays storm. They originally have higher precip amounts for the area and are further north with the precip then they all of a sudden lose the storm and in this case suppress it to the south then just a couple days before the storms arrival they return to their original idea of further north and more precip in the area. What is causing this ? is my question. Also as you mentioned now all of a sudden the model output idea of of the coldest temps of the season seems to be in jeopardy. Same thing happened with that for model output earlier in the week. Models were were presenting that idea for early this week and it never materialized .
  3. since the mesoscale models are bringing this back north - the question now is - how far north will they bring it ? Back to here ? Same thing happened with the Sunday storm models had significant accumulations earlier the previous week - lost the storm for a couple days then brought it back to where it originally was to begin with......
  4. Upton gave up on the event - but Mt. Holly kept the door open..........
  5. Mt. Holly just issued Winter Storm Watches for over 5 inches in most of NJ WSW from KPHI (cod.edu)
  6. I hope not - this one for the weekend looks like its heavier
  7. Upton and Mount Holly are probably meeting right now or planning to do so this afternoon to begin deciding whether to release Winter Storm Watches for at least some of the area or wait till Saturday AM. Walt probably knows what is going on behind the scenes right now........
  8. gotta keep that green liquid offshore - RGEM is maybe too amped ? BUT as one of the inlander"s mentioned AC has to be liquid for inlanders to get higher totals
  9. and its time to begin taking the Mesoscale models such as the NAM seriously since its under 60 hours
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