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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    12Z Euro
  2. NEG NAO
    12Z Euro
  3. NEG NAO
    its actually pushing the snow further south on 12Z compared to 6Z
  4. NEG NAO
  5. NEG NAO
    latest clown map from the v16 GFS
  6. NEG NAO
    Upton keeps it all mainly snow and sleet especially west of the Hudson majority of the event. The location and strength of the HP to the north through the entire event is the key player in this setup IMO..............
  7. NEG NAO
    0Z GFSv16
  8. NEG NAO
    0Z Canadian
  9. NEG NAO
    Still nothing here in NJ radars drying up
  10. NEG NAO
    and right after I posted this the precip is developing rapidly southwest of here - lets see what happens with this batch....
  11. NEG NAO
    There was no need for a Winter Weather Advisory for the Upton NJ counties today - down here near Eastern Union County got exactly nothing so far and radar doesn't look promising .. going to be a rough week coming up for forecasters and some busts IMO in this messed up setup........
  12. NEG NAO
    12Z Euro
  13. NEG NAO
    the ice line is down to central NJ on the 12Z Euro
  14. NEG NAO
    question now is are we going to start trending back towards the colder solutions of a couple days ago ?? - last 2 storms started to trend back too their original solutions just before the storm began.......
  15. NEG NAO
    here is your GFSv16 - This is probably the most likely outcome with a stronger southeast ridge and positive NAO developing - can see the outline of the southeast ridge on it
  16. NEG NAO
    IMO this is a more realistic clown map call it whatever you want snow, sleet, marbles.......
  17. NEG NAO
    over 9 inches of sleet ??? I will believe that when I see it too.....
  18. NEG NAO
    the 12Z Canadian moves that strong high pressure into a favorable position for the later week storm BUT that 540 line to the north of us and the configuration of the whole setup looks suspicious IMO
  19. NEG NAO
    whenever the NAO is going into positive territory and the southeast ridge is gaining strength the cold air at all levels along the coast can't stay in place......
  20. NEG NAO
    here is part of the problem
  21. NEG NAO
    with your 2M temps in the teens in place briefly Wednesday Morning in NYC metro
  22. NEG NAO
    I still stand by my previous statement - "don't take these outputs seriously till you get within about 36 hours or less IMO": models in the last 2 weeks messed up losing both of the those events at the same time period it is losing this one............maybe they will be right this time - take your chances.........that 69 hour NAM doesn't look reasonable to me especially with all the ice and snow on the ground especially north of I-78
  23. NEG NAO
    So what makes you believe them at 69 hours away on the NAM when less then 69 hours ago the GFS was showing 2M temps in the teens??? - don't take these outputs seriously till you get within about 36 hours or less IMO
  24. NEG NAO
    and the GFS just a couple days ago had 2M temps in the teens for about the same time period in NYC metro......
  25. NEG NAO
    I have my doubts about all of the models .......this is going to be a week of nowcasting IMO
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