NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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here is your GFSv16 - This is probably the most likely outcome with a stronger southeast ridge and positive NAO developing - can see the outline of the southeast ridge on it -
IMO this is a more realistic clown map call it whatever you want snow, sleet, marbles.......
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the 12Z Canadian moves that strong high pressure into a favorable position for the later week storm BUT that 540 line to the north of us and the configuration of the whole setup looks suspicious IMO
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whenever the NAO is going into positive territory and the southeast ridge is gaining strength the cold air at all levels along the coast can't stay in place......
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here is part of the problem
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with your 2M temps in the teens in place briefly Wednesday Morning in NYC metro
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I still stand by my previous statement - "don't take these outputs seriously till you get within about 36 hours or less IMO": models in the last 2 weeks messed up losing both of the those events at the same time period it is losing this one............maybe they will be right this time - take your chances.........that 69 hour NAM doesn't look reasonable to me especially with all the ice and snow on the ground especially north of I-78
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So what makes you believe them at 69 hours away on the NAM when less then 69 hours ago the GFS was showing 2M temps in the teens??? - don't take these outputs seriously till you get within about 36 hours or less IMO
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and the GFS just a couple days ago had 2M temps in the teens for about the same time period in NYC metro......
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I have my doubts about all of the models .......this is going to be a week of nowcasting IMO
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IMO the next 7 days is going to require deep analysis of each model soundings to just try and determine what the precip type might be for any given location because a few miles one way or the other in the metro might have different frozen types - a really confusing situation for forecasters IMO.....
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Forecasting in the private sector
NEG NAO replied to LVwxHistorian's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes it is possible - just read this article to tell you how to do it . N.Y. Weatherman : Sun Is Shining on Bob Harris as Storm Clears - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com) -
I know that and do you actually believe it ? this is more realistic IMO
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you are misrepresenting the facts look at the 850 temps too those 2M temps in the teens are suspect IMO
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Canadian colder for Tuesday storm then it was for Sundays BUT 540 still west of us
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Canadian more impressive then GFS for Sunday
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under 3 total don't have access to Kuchera
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all the models are north with accumulating snow throughout most of the metro - now you just have to convince the forecasters that gave up on the system a couple days ago after all the models shifted south.......
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Not according to Upton or Mt. Holly and others saying only flurries...
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Upton says little or no snow accumulation south of I-78
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I think for the rest of this winter if the models are north with a system like they were with tomorrows system a few days ago and with significant accumulations in the metro and then lose the system or suppress it forecasters shouldn't discount the system until a day before............happened last week and now this week again...
