NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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12Z Euro same as GFS and GEM for 21st
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That doesn't tell us much for NYC metro we are stuck in the middle - which usually means an active stormy pattern.......
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12Z Canadian similar to 12Z GFS but beyond 21st storm lingers down south
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12Z GFS completely different from last nights 0Z regarding the 21st storm
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Remember we still have no idea what is going to happen next week ..........
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So basically in his opinion take the models with a grain of salt the next few days - I totally agree ! Anybody else agree ?
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Realistically every previous post regarding next week is neither right or wrong . There is still mass confusion in the modeling as demonstrated by last nights and the early morning runs with the GFS and Euro Ops in complete disagreement ( GFS an intense coastal hugger and Euro a miss to the south and east ) . Like I mentioned last night IMO until we get several runs in a row of consistency and the ensembles start coming into a basic agreement from multiple models - all options remain on the table ! IMO !
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Until the Euro and GFS ensembles comes on board and we get several runs in a row of consistency confidence will increase IMO
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Intense Coastal Hugger - need this further offshore a few miles for the metro to cash in IMO in December with still too warm water........
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Who is more skilled in predicting long range JB or Dr. Lee ?
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I'm dreaming of a White New Years..........Overrunning scenerios ? Miller B's ? Plenty of blocking...........
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-PNA - no sign of weakening anytime soon...
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models have been flip flopping and unreliable past day 3 -5 for weeks now at least - we won't have a handle on the week leading up to Christmas till later this week IMO....also all those calls from the usual suspects in their winter outlooks for a fast start to winter here was a mistake.........
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Who believes this ? I think the jury is still out on this one...but as I mentioned earlier it seems the CMC was the most consistent and other models are trending towards it now - CMC 2 runs ago showed a SECS -
12Z Euro - looking better
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The one model that has been consistent run after run is the CMC - snowstorms do happen in unfavorable patterns - IMO something to consider
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only need 1.4 inches and still at least 4 weeks to get - don't have to accumulate it all in one event............
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This is beginning to remind me of this event - which was impossible to predict accumulations region wide - Walt must remember this storm....I got lucky in Northern Ocean County - 8 inches - BUT lost power for several hours the heavy wet snow was weighing down tree limbs and then fallen power lines...... Snow storm, April 9-10, 1996 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)
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I believe this event is all about the timing and interaction and positioning of the strong HP moving southeast from central Canada mid to late week VS. the slow moving LP moving west to east passing south of Chicago Thursday and through PA early Friday - this has significant snowfall potential somewhere in the region IMO looking at the current guidance
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one possibility is this starts as rain and as the HP drifts south from Canada colder air filters in the precip changes to snow north to south a long ways to go with this one
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whenever you get a strong HP in southeast Canada this time of the year into early April and a storm system going by to our south its time to monitor it. Example April 7th , 2003. Snow and ice storm, April 7, 2003 - Surface Maps (raymondcmartinjr.com)
