NEG NAO

the 12Z GFS16v surface feature is once again slightly west of where it was at 06Z BUT the interaction on the 500mb vorticity is not good enough yet....

Euro OP made a significant move west and stronger and more organized at 0Z compared to 12Z here - it just has to move about 200 - 250 miles west and this is a coastal storm - upper air dynamics has to change further in order to tuck the surface feature closer in towards the coast instead of kicking it out to sea before it has a chance of gaining latitude.....12Z runs today are critical -at least hold steady or keep trending in the right direction-- seems like the 2 best models to trust in this situation IMO are the EURO suite - OP - EPS etc and the GFSv16 's..........

I wouldn't totally give up on next weekends possible east coast storm - there is a storm offshore and a few times this season already after first showing potential the models lose the storm only to go back to previous more promising solutions within a few days of the event - if you look closely at the 500mb vorticity - notice anything familiar preventing this storm from coming more north and closer to the coast ???

18Z GFSv16 vs. 12Z GFSv16

vs.

check those amounts out right on the Jersey coast Walt - and Long Island too - 21 inches southern DelMarva ???I doubt if that will happen only there - what do you think ?

IMO this is where we want to be about a week away on the GFS surface maps - don't want to be in the bullseye YET - just a shift 100 -150 miles to the west of the surface LP - sharpening up the trough and we will be dealing with at least a SECS - that HP in southern Canada is also very important

In other words there is still the possibility of the storm tracking too close to the coast since you mentioned it could still be another rainstorm there ? There will be a fresh injection of cold enough air from Canada just prior to the possible storms arrival which is a needed ingredient for a SECS . Also hard to believe this storm will be suppressed like the ones in January when the blocking was too extreme or are the flows this time around going to be to separate and fast not allowing any type of phasing along the coastal plain ?

Any guesses when in March Central Park will get the 1.4 inches of snow in order to reach 40 inches for the season ??

CMC offers a chance of a coastal next weekend

When is the last year NYC metro had significant snow on the ground the entire month of February ?

going to take a while to get to you it took an hour to get from Hackensack to Elmwood Park

once it got slightly west of I-95 it is having a difficult time moving west......

I didn't say final I was responding to SnoSki14 saying it questioning him.......

final event on Feb 22nd ???

radar shows as of 1 pm should still be snow by you I am rain with a few flakes I am about 10 miles east of you...

you should have mixed and be mainly liquid now - my Fire TV interactive radar app was exact with the changeover by me on the middlesex/union county line.......about 10 minutes ago

where does that show the snow/rain line now ?

anyone in Staten Island ? should be rain there now except the northwest side according to radar

thats weird because the radar shows the snow/rain line all the way into the city now

more then that

only advisory in NJ is for Warren County as of 3 pm. WSW from KPHI (cod.edu)