NEG NAO

I'll believe it when I see it

yea that was a memorable last minute bust.......Monday could be a fun day watching the radars..

12z Canadian

I was talking frozen thats all we care about we don't do threads for rainstorms for the most part....

I would wait till later tomorrow or early Monday...........models have been inconsistent this winter so far

I would take the 12Z Euro with a grain of salt for now since it went from nothing to a MECS in 1 run......All the models have been flip flopping around past 3 days out

Mecs on 12Z Euro

Euro starts Friday storm as frozen here

This just about sums it up for the next 10 days the clunker winter in NYC of 21 - 22 continues......until further notice

1916-17 0 0 0 0 T 14.5 5.8 12.2 11.7 6.5 0 0 50.7 1922-23 0 0 0 0 1.0 8.0 24.5 18.8 8.1 T 0 0 60.4 1947-48 0 0 0 0 T 30.2 15.3 13.6 4.7 0 0 0 63.8 1960-61 0 0 0 T 0 18.6 16.7 18.2 1.2 T 0 0 54.7 1963-64 0 0 0 0 T 11.3 13.3 14.1 6.0 T 0 0 44.7 1995-96 0 0 0 0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 0 0 75.6 2013-14 0 0 0 0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 0 0 57.4

what makes you think there will even be a storm at 12Z on the Euro ?

18Z GFS is moving precip further north into our area again

I would be careful totally discounting early next weeks potential . Take a look back in this forum to the Dec 26, 2010 Boxing Day threads. Just 3 days before the event there was a post that the Euro was a complete miss to the east and other models were forecasting a quarter inch or less of liquid......We all remember what actually happened.............

what's scary is its only about 5 days away - what a bust if we get nothing

Most pattern changes are challenging and difficult to predict...........but I think we will have opportunities down the road in the not too distant future......

This looks like it has the potential to start frozen in most of the metro - (if this system is even real) and because of the blocking high to the north once it gets too western PA it will redevelop off the coast which might help keep precip frozen here

you know its a bad winter around here when Bluewave gets into a pissing contest with Allsnow - anyways the 12Z GFS will probably be on its own with any hope of the front slowing down and allowing cold enough air to filter in before the precip shuts off to give some coastal folks a cheap thrill, After that the GFS show high and dry with seasonable cold for a few days then has a few east to west LP movers and depending where the cold enough boundary and if LP passes south of us there is some potential for light to moderate events .......

I'd like to see this go into the COD and stay there some of our biggest snowstorms happened while the MJO was in the COD

There is basically no second wave on the 12Z Euro - but yesterday there was so still have to wait and see

I agree

actually it might be good that next weeks 2nd LP is offshore now to far south and east - just a few miles adjustment to the northwest and we have a snowstorm here next week - but since there is a lack of posting recently on here not many folks are thinking positively about this......

another miss to the south on 12Z GFS

you agree with this or not ? I think its 30 % ( as of now )possible - I don't think the pattern supports the second wave ( if its real )early next week passing south of us...