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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    Why don't you provide something else to prove it........
  2. NEG NAO
    really looking better at 18Z
  3. NEG NAO
    then which ensemble would you choose that you think will verify -they are spread out all over the place - the mean ?
  4. NEG NAO
  5. NEG NAO
    hope you are correct - but favoring the GFS solution which delays whatever potential till at least Sunday
  6. NEG NAO
    its coming to its senses and starting to trend toward the GFS for Saturday but will it for Thursdays ???
  7. NEG NAO
    The only thing I am 100% confident of with this storm in NYC Metro is it will be 100% frozen and most likely 100% all snow . I also think the farther south and east you are in the metro the greater accumulations possible............and there is a chance the north - northwest suburbs get close to nothing....
  8. NEG NAO
    I am interested to see if the EURO solution verifies Thursday - might give some hints as we get closer whether it is accurate with its weekend snowstorm........and vice versa with the GFS.
  9. NEG NAO
    IMO need to get the best model the last few weeks and its ensembles on board for this event and multiple runs of consistency. Notice the Euro is not jumping onboard for the Thursday period of snow while the GFS has been consistent with it run to run - lets see how that works out ....
  10. NEG NAO
    This whole time period and now through the 26th is a big mystery the GFS insists on at least a period of snow here Thursday at least then the 26th something more significant I know I am only just showing 1 model but the GFS has been leading the parade all month
  11. NEG NAO
    yes sir - I am sure the GFS OP was thoughtful too
  12. NEG NAO
    Unfortunately I favor the GFS over the Cosgrove model ATM. - GFS gas plenty of potential and it leaves it at that and we get nothing.......
  13. NEG NAO
    I don't think this will be like that winter IMO.....
  14. NEG NAO
    good to hear
  15. NEG NAO
    Thats the sign of a crummy winter in NYC.........
  16. NEG NAO
    Mainly just rain storms in the immediate NYC metro - this winter continues to be a real clunker here
  17. NEG NAO
    18Z GFS OP is off its rocker
  18. NEG NAO
    what is your definition of I-95 ?
  19. NEG NAO
    I was told they are unscientific and shouldn't be posted.........but there are going to be wide differences in total if any of these longer range outputs verify IMO
  20. NEG NAO
    I would be very surprised if there isn't a change in the models output over the next 2 or 3 days as more accurate data is fed into the models before they run........
  21. NEG NAO
    a few miles will = wide variation in totals IMO - remember folks we still have between 4 -5 days for things to change
  22. NEG NAO
    central park ???
  23. NEG NAO
    Here is a list of the 850 temperatures on the 12Z Euro in my area of north central NJ starting at 7 pm Saturday: Sat - 7pm +12.2 Sun 1 am +10.4 Sun 7 am +14 Sun 1 pm +17.6 Sun 7pm +23 Mon 1am +23 Mon 7 am +35.6 so sometimes between Mon at 1 -7am the upper atmosphere doesn't support snow what the mid level and surface show I haven't looked at
  24. NEG NAO
    same thing will happen at some point later Sunday ...........
  25. NEG NAO
    Thats a big part of the problem here if you like to see more than a few inches snow out of this along the coast.........
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