NEG NAO

0Z Euro is Very suppressed - unless the GFS and or the Euro stop the suppression today chances rise the mid/late week storm misses us IMO - plus we don't need another rain event - many of our yards are like swamps and sump pump is over worked

the long range storm still in fantasy land for the 8th has colder air in place BUT the storm is being shoved out to sea by that LP north of Lake Superior that shows up in this GFS run BUT the GEM does not show the LP north of Lake Superior instead a 1030 HP in Maine BUT this is going to change many times in the coming days

can't say that with any certainty because the GFS is suppressed with cold enough air in place - a compromise solution would include frozen precip use the 534 line as the rain/snow line also have to start looking at the ENSEMBLES more closely in these borderline situations

0Z GEM shows a rain/snow mix for NYC metro - the GFS is suppressed for the mid week storm

modeling has been all over the place run to run - confusing everyone even pro METS - and causing an emotional roller coaster ride on this forum - so expect anything IMO

some models showing suppression for next weeks events with cold enough air within range BUT suppression has not been a problem the last month

Not at the moment - recent model runs show a suppressed pattern next week - lets see if that changes at 0Z

exactly - the pattern is changing and the models are totally confused right now - run to run continuity and model agreement is not there past a few days....

he didn't say "the coast is toast" this is what he said " There is no doubt(in my mind) that events around the 4th, 7-8th, 10th and possibly well beyond, provide opportunity for snow-ice, at least down to I84 per 24 hours snow depth change ensembles in near normal temps though probs for more than 1" are rather low. NY eve ball drop might even show flurries nearby NYC w-n suburbs. All ensembles are above normal precip 4th-14th. Is it rain or snow/ice for I84? Even a chance of snow down to I95. "

These model runs past a few days are all over the place - nothing is set in stone IMO

Maybe a month from now we will be saying over 11" of snow this month..........

This is the type of pattern we want setting up close to mid January - the GFS has shown this for a few runs now - we don't need arctic blasts in mid January just cold enough air and the storm track just south of us with the rain/snow line near the Mason/Dixon line and cold HP in southeast Canada

This system coming up the coast late next week might have possibilities for NYC metro boarder line temps - nice track off the coast - climatology favorable

This coming weekend.........take any model data past 120 hours with a grain of salt though...

have to begin to see some run to run continuity and support from other models to start getting excited IMO. Also I don't buy into the suppressed look - this season so far suppression has not been an issue...

in a day or 2 the mesoscale models are the ones to start looking at in this situation IMO - someone in the forum might see some flakes....

what I am also watching for is if it sits and stalls there long enough it might generate its own cold air - climatology is getting more favorable for that to happen IMO - I wouldn't even be considering this if the Canadian wasn't on board with a system along the coast - confidence increases if the Euro shows the same in a couple of hours......also we are not even sure how much cold air will be around after the first storm passes or how strong the second system and placement along the coast will be

12Z GFS OP - shows the 1st storm passing by mid week then the upper low and more energy is left behind with not enough cold air to support frozen except in the Apps by late 12/29 early 12/30 a 993 LP off the south jersey coast - something to watch to see if colder air is somehow drawn into this system in future runs 12Z CMC shows similar system 12Z Euro has low placement too far offshore and south

there is no reason the EURO can't verify - the cold air at all levels will not be easy to move out of place - its a fresh injection and the primary will be weakening as it throws its energy to the secondary.......

I agree - first of all the EURO is wrong on Pivitol weather with its snow accumulations south of I-78 take a closer look at the precip types........

it would be cool to have 2 separate storm threads going at the same time but not enough confidence to create a late weekend thread YET........plus this coming storm has more questions than answers right now and low confidence...

are we going to make a new thread if this keeps showing up for Sunday on various models ????- it first showed on the Euro yesterday

what evidence do you have that this will all shift south ?

the last day we have been talking ICE for most of NYC metro NOT SNOW.....