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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
  2. NEG NAO
    yes that is why the intensity and the timing of the heaviest precip is critical because the beginning hours of the precip don't look cold enough need a few hours of steady snowfall when the colder air arrives
  3. NEG NAO
    we just experienced what happened in Central Park over the past weekend using the clown snow accumulation maps
  4. NEG NAO
    best looking OP model solution at 0Z so far is the GEM - but 1 important ingredient is missing for a SECS - strong HP in southeast Canada also temps near the surface are too warm too support much accumulation in the metro
  5. NEG NAO
    Euro and GFS more or less agree now - just have to get the ensembles of both on board.....
  6. NEG NAO
    need the EURO to back off on the amped up solution and still have to consider all of the ensembles - this cold air on the way means business !
  7. NEG NAO
    just like the gfs weaker and off the coast because there is no denying that push of arctic air
  8. NEG NAO
    weaker and further east is what we need apparently to get all frozen
  9. NEG NAO
    IMO right now we will start as snow in I-95 for a couple hours then mix back and forth for several hours with LI and coastal NJ going to plain rain and then as the storm starts to intensify pulling in much colder air and everyone changes back to snow subject to timing changes as various models evolve this is definitely thread worthy and please don't combine with any other event....
  10. NEG NAO
    0Z Euro still shows a storm off the coast for 1/16 - IMO with that track , 986 LP and much colder air involved then last weekend this has a better potential for snow in the immediate NYC metro then last weekend regardless of what this run says - too early for rain/snow lines anyways....
  11. NEG NAO
    can't say its over for 1/16 until the EURO says it is - it has shown several consistent snowstorm runs in a row - lets see if 0Z run keeps showing this
  12. NEG NAO
    0Z CMC rain to start 1/16
  13. NEG NAO
    EURO has now had 3 few similar runs in a row - looking good for 1/16 event
  14. NEG NAO
    12Z GFS and CMC are different and not consistent with their previous runs so if the 12Z EURO resembles its previous 0Z run its best to believe that regarding next weeks potential - also considering various Ensembles ..........
  15. NEG NAO
    similar on how it was supposed to set in mid- January ? or before that Christmas week ? my point being nobody knows for sure and its been a winter similar to last winter so far with little cold air and Central Park ending up with only 0.2 inches of snow by Jan 15 the half way point of MET winter......
  16. NEG NAO
    I would wait till tomorrow morning to create a thread for next weeks potential IF there is some various model consensus that it is a real threat for most of the region - plenty of time IMO don't rush it plus I don't like the idea of tracking 3 storms on here at the same time - too confusing and some folks will start talking about the wrong storm in the wrong thread for whatever reason.........in addition too the folks taking a stroll down memory lane discussing storms from years ago......
  17. NEG NAO
    thaw ? thaw from what around here ?........
  18. NEG NAO
    back to reality
  19. NEG NAO
    I would just start with a 12/13 thread - combining storms in one thread turns into confusion around here - plus 1/16 outcome depends on where the next 2 storms end up tracking - very complex.......
  20. NEG NAO
  21. NEG NAO
    Tuesdays storm yes - weekend storm have to consider inland north jersey down to Somerset Northern Middlesex Counties...
  22. NEG NAO
    oh ok - glad we are the same page now
  23. NEG NAO
    huh ? 12Z doesn't show that various model run keep showing south of Raritan River
  24. NEG NAO
    who is us ? wide range of precip types in a small area in the metro
  25. NEG NAO
    and the nights are long..........sad we have to consider that on January 6th - 7th
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