NEG NAO

IMO anyone who thinks they have a handle on this situation right now ___ _____ ______ ____ ___ ___fill in the blanks

This is the point at around 66 hours NYC metro has the opportunity of a period of steady snow as the northern stream feature passes overhead - unfortunately this northern upper level feature doesn't phase with the southern branch until too far offshore - all of the heavier snow down in the southern mid-atlantic is being caused by a strong southern upper level system

there will be changes in that snowfall map one way or the other since this storm is so disorganized and questions about exactly where the energy will be transferred to along the east coast and many variables regarding intensity and track and the size of the precip field and the chance of a westward expansion of any norlun trough that develops which could expand the precip field further west then modeled considering the models since last week have had a weak handle on this whole situation and the storm is still a little more than 2 days from reaching here and is in the early development stages out west and will be transferring energy at different points as it moves into the Gulf region and off along the southeast coast - impossible for any guidance to be accurate at this point IMO

Which locations are NW to SE since there are many differing opinions here regarding that ?

50 mile adjustment north and west = MECS in NYC metro --- lets see how many EPS members are 50 miles north and west of the OP

still not certain what is causing it to make the turn from the Gulf up to Hatteras then fade out to sea - maybe once the system comes on shore out west in a couple model cycles MAYBE new data will begin to change that back to closer to the coast at this LAT...

at least 5 in the benchmark zone still

exactly !

Today is going to be the day of mass confusion here as the models will be all over the place or all begin to miss when the LP makes a hard right turn out to sea

at 84 hours they all look good wait and see what happens with the LP once it passes Hatteras....

please explain why ????? seems to me everything looks great with the track until it gets past Hatteras and then fades out to sea- whats causing that ?

read Walts post above - he is thinking a 2 - 6" powder event - right now thats the most reasonable prediction unless new data today proves otherwise..of course IMO

its still a moderate snowstorm at least for the immediate metro - and still could be more then that - doubt it will be less then what we are seeing modeled now on the EURO IMO - Overall I think the Euro's have the best handle on this entire situation right now....

individual members all over the place - that tells us something - they are still going to adjust to more of a consensus as we inch closer to showtime

well if the confluence is less - what is causing the sharp turn the last 24 hours ?

I see it - .5 seems more realistic IMO right now BUT that .5 can easily go back to much higher amounts similar to what last night was showing IMO - only time will tell

I wasn't expecting large scale improvements yet until this current storm exits

still keeps us in the ballgame but east gets more then west metro of course

only 50 -75 mile adjustment to the west makes a big difference in the immediate metro - must be the confluence that turns this east all of a sudden when it reaches the Delmarva region

LP is stronger coming up the coast as compared to 24 hours ago

important to watch the locations and strength of the HP's to the north and west and also exactly where the 50/50 low sets up and its strength at hour 48 that LP exiting to the north and east is at 965 quite strong

the current dynamics of this current weekend storm being so strong could be be affecting the data that is being gathered and injected into the models - once the playing field is cleared ( storm exits)so to say the models will have updated data and no interference from this system IMO