NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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its impossible to even speculate about storm tracks right now too early
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this is pure speculation at this point IMO we don't even know when the pattern change is definetely going to happen yet date wise........to try and pin point storm tracks is impossible right now
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I think the deeper we get into February areas south and east of DC will have precip type issues
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true but how often does the SE ridge work in our favor for a cold snowy pattern lately ?
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Looks good on paper - thats about all for now..
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still alot of cloud cover out there in NJ and you knows what will develop during the day - Upton usually does a poor job of predicting cloud coverage...
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What is your definition of " a decent megalopolis snowstorm this winter" ?????
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Similar to the 60's that were predicted here last Friday several days in advance ?
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Looks great on paper !
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He has balls predicting another 15 - 23 inches in NYC metro this season . Good Luck !
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12Z GFS thinks this one is going to fail too
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this same theory probably explains why the late 90's featured 4 years in a row of well below avg snowfall and 1949 - 1955 well below normal snowfall - IMO these cycles are normal ... just like the above normal cycles
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water surface temps or air temps ?
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Superbowl Sunday Flooding Rains and President Days Weekend Bone Dry without a snowstorm in sight........in other words don't get too excited until its obvious that this pattern change will deliver any significant snow..........
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I don't consider low temps near 30 and high temps forecasted next week in the low to mid 40's as "mild" still need a winter coat.
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1957 -58 is not a good analog for this winter - 72 -73 is much closer monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf (weather.gov)
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doubt very much we will have 2 weeks of sunshine everyday and temps will stay mainly below 50 for highs ...........with some days closer to 40 and any clear nights radiational cooling into the 20's
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problem in that period is not enough cold air in place yet - need that strong HP in southeast Canada...........
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Maybe longer then that
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depending how it sets up in the lower 48 and interacts with the northern stream along with timing of various systems moving through
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basically the key uncertainties listed = no idea what is going to happen............
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For entertainment purposes ONLY now ! BUT you get the idea !
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This second wave of warming aloft should result in cold air outbreaks across much of the US during the middle and latter parts of February.
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the models are having a difficult time handling this pattern - expect changes over the next few days IMO all other data points to colder and snowy by mid month
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this NINO is going to come crashing down in March and be replaced with NINA by spring - so will not be your typical March weather..........expect anything and everything IMO
