NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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12Z Euro - looking better -
The one model that has been consistent run after run is the CMC - snowstorms do happen in unfavorable patterns - IMO something to consider
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only need 1.4 inches and still at least 4 weeks to get - don't have to accumulate it all in one event............
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This is beginning to remind me of this event - which was impossible to predict accumulations region wide - Walt must remember this storm....I got lucky in Northern Ocean County - 8 inches - BUT lost power for several hours the heavy wet snow was weighing down tree limbs and then fallen power lines...... Snow storm, April 9-10, 1996 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)
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I believe this event is all about the timing and interaction and positioning of the strong HP moving southeast from central Canada mid to late week VS. the slow moving LP moving west to east passing south of Chicago Thursday and through PA early Friday - this has significant snowfall potential somewhere in the region IMO looking at the current guidance
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one possibility is this starts as rain and as the HP drifts south from Canada colder air filters in the precip changes to snow north to south a long ways to go with this one
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whenever you get a strong HP in southeast Canada this time of the year into early April and a storm system going by to our south its time to monitor it. Example April 7th , 2003. Snow and ice storm, April 7, 2003 - Surface Maps (raymondcmartinjr.com)
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with the EURO showing snow all the way down into Delaware ??????
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Looking further down the road to later this week IMO if the 03/15 0Z models such as the Euro show the system to the south similar to this 12Z out - its time to start a storm thread for it
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I think the Euro is a good compromise right now compared to the snowy GFSv16 and the other models showing nothing in the immediate NYC metro
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Only model showing significant accumulations in immediate metro are is GFSv16 - the new kid in town - taking over for the old sometimes unreliable GFSv15 - can't get onboard for anything more then a few snow showers until other guidance shows significant precip - I would keep an eye on the late week system - big strong 1042 HP in southeast Canada and a couple of systems passing just to the south
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This possible event is about thread the needle as you can get IMO . Too bad that HP and all the confluence / convergence involved would just relax a bit and get in a better position to allow the precip to reach here instead of being driven mainly south of us.........
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Now all of a sudden the EURO offers some hope for next week
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I think as of now the EURO OP is the model of choice - meaning basically a non-event throughout most of metro maybe some light precip northern zones as of right now.....hopefully things will change....
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and March 1956 had 21 inches of snow and April 4 inches at NYC.......
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12Z GFS
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Also the time of day/night snowfall determines whether we have to shovel - overnight snowfalls produce the greatest accumulation in late March/early April especially if intensity is lacking............also now much indication on the 12Z models when or if the next snowfall will materialize around the bulk of the metro
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Possible Major Winter Storm/Coastal 3/6 - 3/8
NEG NAO replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Any idea when NYC will have their opportunity to get the 1.4 inches of snow they need to reach 40 inches for the season ?
