NEG NAO

Doesn't look good if you want cold and snow here - look at the southeast

I'll believe that for the metro when I experience it and after it verifies.......

Lets get realistic here - many people here including myself and have been making assumptions that have turned out wrong ! This pattern has been fooling many people the last month and models past 3 -5 days have been generally useless giving conflicting output every couple of days for the longer range. IMO the key to the winter outlook past Christmas is the PNA - the AO and NAO are favorable for winter weather and have been consistent in their output for favorable for winter weather - the PNA is the one to keep an eye on IMO - will this trend towards neutral and possibly positive territory verify ??

and we all know what happened 12/26/2010

Also less snow then GFS

Suprised nobody posted this clownthis morning

Thats the problem with a block if it's too strong and in the wrong position suppression is a problem....

Still a "work in progress" IMO plenty of potential beginning next week !

Don't give up on the chance of a White Christmas around here this could look alot more wintry then shown here because the models are still adjusting to the real pattern developing.....

and still the possibility of a white christmas

Only about 11 days away

Reminds me of 2010 when we spent Christmas Eve and Day tracking the Boxing Day Blizzard......

Both Chicago and NYC get their first ? snow of the season on Christmas and or Boxing Day

There are signs the PNA will be moving towards neutral or positive territory around the New Year

Sorry Neighbor for my sarcastic comment - but over here in central NJ all the leaves are off the trees - why do you think they are hanging on in NYC ?

can't you see they are busy talking about the leaves on the trees ...but I saw that

Did the old wicked witch ride by the window on her bike ?

Let's talk about the potential Strat Warming event developing later in the month:

Miller B's

I Agree

where are the snowstorms in this pattern coming from ????

but what are the main storm tracks going to be ?

its only nice if we break out of this dry pattern and the storm tracks are in our favor for snow which there is no indication of that happening in the mid to long range yet....