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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    IMO the next 7 days is going to require deep analysis of each model soundings to just try and determine what the precip type might be for any given location because a few miles one way or the other in the metro might have different frozen types - a really confusing situation for forecasters IMO.....
  2. NEG NAO
    Yes it is possible - just read this article to tell you how to do it . N.Y. Weatherman : Sun Is Shining on Bob Harris as Storm Clears - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)
  3. NEG NAO
    12Z Euro is an ice event for Sundays
  4. NEG NAO
  5. NEG NAO
    I know that and do you actually believe it ? this is more realistic IMO
  6. NEG NAO
    you are misrepresenting the facts look at the 850 temps too those 2M temps in the teens are suspect IMO
  7. NEG NAO
    Canadian colder for Tuesday storm then it was for Sundays BUT 540 still west of us
  8. NEG NAO
    Canadian more impressive then GFS for Sunday
  9. NEG NAO
    Upton has temps in the mid 30's
  10. NEG NAO
    under 3 total don't have access to Kuchera
  11. NEG NAO
    all the models are north with accumulating snow throughout most of the metro - now you just have to convince the forecasters that gave up on the system a couple days ago after all the models shifted south.......
  12. NEG NAO
    Not according to Upton or Mt. Holly and others saying only flurries...
  13. NEG NAO
    Upton says little or no snow accumulation south of I-78
  14. NEG NAO
    I think for the rest of this winter if the models are north with a system like they were with tomorrows system a few days ago and with significant accumulations in the metro and then lose the system or suppress it forecasters shouldn't discount the system until a day before............happened last week and now this week again...
  15. NEG NAO
    12Z Canadian
  16. NEG NAO
    12Z GEM is a track south of us for next mid week
  17. NEG NAO
    The midweek system has a Ohio Valley cutter trying to move too far north IMO and then redevelops too far north of us on the 12Z GFS so we end up with mainly ice to start with and it changes to rain on the 12Z GFS
  18. NEG NAO
    12Z GFS
  19. NEG NAO
    As I mentioned last night and I posted a NAM model run from a few days ago here it seems like many models are acting the same way they did prior to this past Sundays storm. They originally have higher precip amounts for the area and are further north with the precip then they all of a sudden lose the storm and in this case suppress it to the south then just a couple days before the storms arrival they return to their original idea of further north and more precip in the area. What is causing this ? is my question. Also as you mentioned now all of a sudden the model output idea of of the coldest temps of the season seems to be in jeopardy. Same thing happened with that for model output earlier in the week. Models were were presenting that idea for early this week and it never materialized .
  20. NEG NAO
    0Z GFS
  21. NEG NAO
    since the mesoscale models are bringing this back north - the question now is - how far north will they bring it ? Back to here ? Same thing happened with the Sunday storm models had significant accumulations earlier the previous week - lost the storm for a couple days then brought it back to where it originally was to begin with......
  22. NEG NAO
    Upton gave up on the event - but Mt. Holly kept the door open..........
  23. NEG NAO
    Mt. Holly just issued Winter Storm Watches for over 5 inches in most of NJ WSW from KPHI (cod.edu)
  24. NEG NAO
  25. NEG NAO
    still heavy precip at F048
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