NEG NAO

Even though its going to be above normal for a few days after the holidays IF todays model runs are accurate the cold will return right after the 1st of the new year and might stick around for a longer period of time as the MJO is progged to go into phase 8 too

True but that storm and next weekends potential had/have plenty of cold enough air and strong HP to work with.......

If you go back to the beginning of this forum in 2010 - we were saying the same thing about the Boxing Day storm this far out..........and the weird thing is that was a La Nina winter with a similar beginning to the month a slight shift in the location of the HP and the storm makes a world of difference - still over 7 days out

if there is no snow on the ground it turns fairly impressive into a yawn IMO....

Most NYC Decembers that end up averaging more then 3 degrees below normal or under 36 degrees end up with at least 7 inches of snow BUT there are notable exceptions in recent memory 1989 and 1983.........which ended up with under 2 inches snow total for the month

Follow the MJO

yes especially when its not the solution we want to see,,,,,,,

chances are one will be correct...maybe both......

We also need a block with that HP in southeast Canada - problem is past day 5 -7 the models are disagreeing with other models and they are all disagreeing with themselves run to run - lets see if the 0Z GFS has the same solution as the 18Z - I tend to doubt it at this point

We have no idea what will happen past 5 - 7 days at best yesterdays 12 Z Euro OP centered on Saturday 12/21 is completely different today as an example relating to the potential storm of yesterdays run

This is why you can't trust any model past Day 5- 10 Verified -Dec 2 12Z Run Vs. Dec 8th 12Z Run concentrated on Dec 12 12Z GFS Model – 850mb Temp Anomaly for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits CMC Model – 850mb Temp Anomaly for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits Also IMO anybody who knows what the weather will be like Christmas week today is kidding themselves........

"Operational weather models just another ensemble member" means that a standard, single weather forecast produced by a typical operational model can be considered as just one possible outcome within a larger group of forecasts generated by an ensemble prediction system, where each individual forecast is considered an "ensemble member" representing a slightly different scenario based on slightly varied initial conditions; essentially, the operational model is treated as if it were one of many different potential forecasts within a broader range of possibilities.

ok thanks for verifying that statement

the month of December is going to end up dry ? Today is only December 2nd ????

GFS and CMC 850 Anomaly completely different at Day 10 - can't trust any solution past Day 5 GFS Model – 850mb Temp Anomaly for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits CMC Model – 850mb Temp Anomaly for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits

He's not the only one hinting at a 13/14 type winter around here - Walt and that Tolleris fellow have also mentioned similar solutions........although Walt didn't directly mention 13/14

Wrong ! record cold early February 2023 New York sets new records for cold as 'arctic blast' shocks the city

not 2 years ago - Teens all day on Christmas

agree and not on the "Heat Island"

models have been all over the place run to run disagreeing with themselves

True but aren't all the measurements in Central Park NYC ? I would like to see a chart from outside the "Heat Island" going back to the beginning of recorded measurement time. Also several stations. different directions of NYC

give it time IMO........looking at the averages since the beginning they are all over the place in December and impossible to determine any specific trends there have been stretches of above normal in the past then returns to below normal monthlyannualtemp.pdf

December 1995 December 2000 and December 2010 - all below 33 avg temp and all three seasons La Nina's of various strengths and all 3 had over 50 inches seasonal snowfall in NYC.....

We all remember December 2010 Snow storm, December 26-27, 2010 - Storm Summary that winter featured a strong La Nina and if you go to the beginning of this forum thats the first major snow storm discussed here........

NYC had 57 and 50 inches those winters.........