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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    0Z GFSv16 - LP much further south then 18Z BUT
  2. NEG NAO
    EURO is the superior Atmospheric Physics model - going with the EURO all the way and most of the other models will trend towards it as has happened many times in the past - That 18Z run of the GFSv16 shows a primary low plowing right through a block - not likely IMO........ What is the best weather forecast model? | The Weather Guys (wisc.edu)
  3. NEG NAO
    18Z GFSv16 for 26th
  4. NEG NAO
    18Z GFS for 26th
  5. NEG NAO
    12Z EURO looks more reasonable and further south then the other guidance for the 25 -26 ***POTENTIAL***event
  6. NEG NAO
    you have to be careful in this situation because the next cycle run of models especially at 0Z can show a suppressed storm because of all the model inconsistency lately..
  7. NEG NAO
    Isn't it suspicious that we go from suppressed to a cutter so fast - and shouldn't that storm cutting through the GL be forced to redevelop along the coast south of us if there was any true blocking go on ?
  8. NEG NAO
    nowadays they would have cancelled school the night before or had early dismissal in anticipation of the predicted Blizzard starting during the day - way back then they didn't do that....
  9. NEG NAO
    12Z GFSv16 showing late month potential - you would think if there was a true block that storm trying to plow into it through the GL would redevelop along the coast so we go from suppressed to cutters overnight - questionable at best
  10. NEG NAO
    12z CMC showing something similar
  11. NEG NAO
    better then nothing and you don't know if it could possibly end up wetter then progged - still early - I still don't totally buy into this long term dry cold scenerio advertised by some models.........
  12. NEG NAO
    12Z EURO offers some hope for next week
  13. NEG NAO
    a better question would be IMO - When was the last time the park failed to hit freezing for a high temp in a January ?
  14. NEG NAO
    How long do you actually believe the cold and dry pattern will last with next to nothing in precip ?
  15. NEG NAO
    define "US" please
  16. NEG NAO
    Also remember 2009-2010 ? That's easy to check out what the mood was around here in January which only had a couple inches after a 12.4 inch December and then February turned out to be historic with 36.9 inches.
  17. NEG NAO
    unusual yes BUT IMO we still don't know how much snowfall we will have the rest of the season - impossible to predict - also check out what happened in 1933-34
  18. NEG NAO
    no kidding - the way he worded made it sound like he was saying FEBRUARY would not have any snow........and March and April don't matter
  19. NEG NAO
    1932 had only 5.3 inches snow for the season - 2002 had even less then that BUT 2013 had 12.2 in Feb and 7.3 snow in March at NYC - so far 10.5 in 2021
  20. NEG NAO
    Until a couple runs of the models bring hope back............--you are basing that declaration on model runs past 5 days which practically everyone is critical of around here .............
  21. NEG NAO
    apparently you don't know when Meteorological Winter Ends............
  22. NEG NAO
    its not mostly rain on that euro run FYI
  23. NEG NAO
    its a light to moderate event 3 - 4 inches and probably turns to sleet and drizzle before ending
  24. NEG NAO
    12Z EURO offers some hope for a light to possibly moderate event around the Metro late next week - this is the model to monitor it has shown this or something similar recently and fits the advertised pattern coming up
  25. NEG NAO
    you are talking close to 275 hours away - IMO ignore for now....... Any event prior to then has the same old borderline cold airmass in place for any precip that does arrive - nothing happening on the 12Z runs so far that is thread worthy..........
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