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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    You have now entered the Twilight Zone............
  2. NEG NAO
    and lets not forget a relative of his Major Winter Storm to Hit Massachusetts on Monday February 1, 2021 - YouTube
  3. NEG NAO
    this initial batch is just some flurries and snow showers Weather Radar | Weather Underground (wunderground.com)
  4. NEG NAO
    I usually start viewing these Jersey shore webcams to see if there is any mixing changeover Beach Webcams in New Jersey - NJ Beach Cams
  5. NEG NAO
    there is alot of mixing and possible changeover to rain along the coast at least on that run
  6. NEG NAO
    thats 6 inches less then the 6Z at least in my neck of the woods in central NJ
  7. NEG NAO
  8. NEG NAO
    I am discounting those over the top models showing 20 something inches of snow in North Central NJ the NWS has the right idea staying conservative with the totals with still around 30 + hours to go before the event even begins.........
  9. NEG NAO
    Jan 2016 an analog ? Seems like on every clown map I am in the Bullseye in north central NJ
  10. NEG NAO
    12 Euro
  11. NEG NAO
    YOU CAN SEE THE NAVGEM IS ALL IN ON ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR ALL OF THE METRO
  12. NEG NAO
    reason I feel that way about the UKIE is the overall distribution of the precip considering its an offshore storm near the benchmark - nothing looks crazy on that map
  13. NEG NAO
    this model run makes the most sense IMO
  14. NEG NAO
    yes go back to the beginning of this forum - most were losing all hope a few days before............
  15. NEG NAO
    one thing is more certain then a couple days ago most of the metro is going to be close to 100% snow
  16. NEG NAO
    right now it does - remember a few days ago the setup favored DC with big snows for the previous storm then things changed
  17. NEG NAO
    I think the 12Z GEM will adjust going forward seems confused takes the low only up to the Delmarva and stalls and moves west slightly - basically its going to come down to where the confluence line is north of us..........BUT warning level snows southern and eastern half of metro
  18. NEG NAO
  19. NEG NAO
    what is interesting is 12Z GFS has transfer to basically the same position as 12Z NAM beginning at 60 hours
  20. NEG NAO
    warning level snows on this run for southern part of metro
  21. NEG NAO
    Then at hour 84 the 12Z NAM in its unreliable range starts moving west towards the NJ coast after stalling out in its previous few hours. All in All the transfer at hour 60 -63 can be seriously considered BUT after that we still don't know the exact track of this storm..........
  22. NEG NAO
    on the 12Z NAM the transfer to the coast happens between hr. 60 -63 - after that in its unreliable range the storm starts taking a near benchmark track up the coast
  23. NEG NAO
    similar to the Dec 19-20,2009 storm the precip took quite a while to travel through NJ towards the metro ………….
  24. NEG NAO
    IMO Dec 19-20, 2009 is the top analog storm for the upcoming event - at least in regards to precip distribution across the area - although no 2 systems are the same..... also I am siding with the EPS solution until proven otherwise...…….always go with the best Snow storm, December 19-20, 2009 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)
  25. NEG NAO
    that clown map is ridiculous IMO - example - why the low snow totals in western NJ PA border including Warren County NJ ?
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