you have to be careful in this situation because the next cycle run of models especially at 0Z can show a suppressed storm because of all the model inconsistency lately..
Isn't it suspicious that we go from suppressed to a cutter so fast - and shouldn't that storm cutting through the GL be forced to redevelop along the coast south of us if there was any true blocking go on ?
nowadays they would have cancelled school the night before or had early dismissal in anticipation of the predicted Blizzard starting during the day - way back then they didn't do that....
12Z GFSv16 showing late month potential - you would think if there was a true block that storm trying to plow into it through the GL would redevelop along the coast so we go from suppressed to cutters overnight - questionable at best
better then nothing and you don't know if it could possibly end up wetter then progged - still early - I still don't totally buy into this long term dry cold scenerio advertised by some models.........
Also remember 2009-2010 ? That's easy to check out what the mood was around here in January which only had a couple inches after a 12.4 inch December and then February turned out to be historic with 36.9 inches.
unusual yes BUT IMO we still don't know how much snowfall we will have the rest of the season - impossible to predict - also check out what happened in 1933-34
1932 had only 5.3 inches snow for the season - 2002 had even less then that BUT 2013 had 12.2 in Feb and 7.3 snow in March at NYC - so far 10.5 in 2021
Until a couple runs of the models bring hope back............--you are basing that declaration on model runs past 5 days which practically everyone is critical of around here .............
12Z EURO offers some hope for a light to possibly moderate event around the Metro late next week - this is the model to monitor it has shown this or something similar recently and fits the advertised pattern coming up
you are talking close to 275 hours away - IMO ignore for now....... Any event prior to then has the same old borderline cold airmass in place for any precip that does arrive - nothing happening on the 12Z runs so far that is thread worthy..........