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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    hundreds of miles - trend is our friend
  2. NEG NAO
    540 down in southern VA but still liquid - not going to get it done with this lousy setup - this is probably closer to reality IMO
  3. NEG NAO
  4. NEG NAO
    was he referring to SNE and or here ? - they can end up with a boat load of snow and we get zip...……...
  5. NEG NAO
    the place to be is on a fishing boat parked in the middle of that dark red area off the Monmouth County NJ coast - 30 miles or so
  6. NEG NAO
    what does everybody think the chances are of this verifying ? My prediction is slim to none and Slim just left town...……….
  7. NEG NAO
    we can only hope...…….
  8. NEG NAO
    12Z GFS - close call for the metro with cold enough air wrapping into the system
  9. NEG NAO
    still a chance that all the confluence up in eastern Canada will help develop stronger high pressure at the surface and model runs are trending south with LP both at 850 and the surface so this is still a work in progress for the weekend - dynamics - track and the development of HP to the north will determine rain versus snow in the metro area - chance it could start as rain and then transition to snow IMO
  10. NEG NAO
    storm goes to around Chicago then is forced to redevelop south of us
  11. NEG NAO
    This storm is still a work in progress Canadian has the snow accumulation further north and east and the Euro further south and west so this could easily change
  12. NEG NAO
    Any other models showing this ? This one has shown it a few runs in a row now
  13. NEG NAO
    you can't trust him anymore because when he made his video canceling winter the rest of the way he backed himself into a corner - also I can't understand why anyone would pay money for his forecasts and insight when there are so many free and better forecasters out there...………...
  14. NEG NAO
    this is upside down compared to the 12Z NAM and 12Z ICON which has all the heavier amounts in southern NJ
  15. NEG NAO
    I just re - discovered the vendor thread so we can get all the conversations about what the paid vendors are talking about out of the main threads ………….lets see how many can follow directions around here
  16. NEG NAO
    Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago More Feel GFS feedback problem is jumping storm out to sea too much IMO, Almost every major NYC storm in past 25 years has been out to sea on the GFS 4 days before. Maybe this is GFS coup, but the feedback fairy likely causing problems, so expect model to correct west
  17. NEG NAO
    NY NJ PA Weather‏Verified account @nynjpaweather 3h3 hours ago More A potential winter storm is brewing for next weekend with heavy snow a threat for Saturday into Sunday morning. Details on the way! https://twitter.com/nynjpaweather?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
  18. NEG NAO
    These models have been playing catch - up for a while the actual result for December will show the central and east as a wide chunk of real estate below to well below normal as the blocking takes hold in an almost perfect position for a few weeks at least - this cold outbreak could rival 2013 - 2010 and 1989....
  19. NEG NAO
    I fell off the potty.............
  20. NEG NAO
  21. NEG NAO
  22. NEG NAO
    Bernie is going for 6 -12 in NYC http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/expert-forecasts/snowstorm-tuesday-snow-amounts-over-2-feet/f4bzi5yte6o0cnlleinxd2ssq527igk4
  23. NEG NAO
    I think at this range its a good idea to have 12 - 24 because of all the uncertainties regarding banding and possible mixing in some areas..........
  24. NEG NAO
    The prime example regarding models and short range surprises is the January 7th storm which forecasters had to increase amounts and issue upgraded warnings during the storm - don't be surprised if that happens again at some point the remainder of the winter...........
  25. NEG NAO
    Bernie Rayno A.M. update 1/4 http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/late-week-snowstorm/2430839568001
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