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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    This is what happens when the primary is forced to redevelop south of us because of some blocking - if the previous mid week low acts as a 50/50 this is still a possibility - but an outlier right now
  2. NEG NAO
    when did I say I was taking it seriously ?
  3. NEG NAO
    Post the Euro map at hour 282
  4. NEG NAO
    GFS is not cooperating-WHERE IS THE PRECIP MAP FOR THE GEFS ????
  5. NEG NAO
    Time will tell - now you have committed to 7-8-1-2 - lets see how long it takes to find a reliable plot that shows that - lets see how long it takes for the models to come around and start showing a more suppressed storm track in the medium range after day 5 - NAO is still showing no signs of going negative anytime soon -same with the AO
  6. NEG NAO
    agreed - unless we get some more blocking and the system redevelops to our south - more then likely light event - after that the jury is sill out as again the MJO is shown to go into the COD and is pointed to exit into the warmer phases in a few weeks
  7. NEG NAO
    NAO remaining positive possibly - AO could also stay positive - still plenty of mixed signals - proceed with caution IMO especially if you expect snowstorms
  8. NEG NAO
    Pattern change as MJO exits the warmer phases 4/5 -definetly cooler temps after that --wide open for continued debate exactly what comes next - no snowstorms in sight...…….
  9. NEG NAO
    YW - I am not forecasting anything - I believe you have to have an open mind in this situation and consider all the possibilities which in this case are many....I do belive in the shorter term we will have possibilities of snowstorms going forward but I didn't like that cutter look that has appeared on the 12Z GFS
  10. NEG NAO
    IMO I still think going into the COD then going towards 4/5 as some are showing as a real possibility - I also believe in patterns repeating themselves with still the possibility of being in the same warm phases in the middle of next month - not sold on going into phase 2 yet …
  11. NEG NAO
    what hard evidence do you have to support that theory ?
  12. NEG NAO
    similar to most of the earlier "threats" no big deal unless track trends further south
  13. NEG NAO
  14. NEG NAO
  15. NEG NAO
  16. NEG NAO
    agreed - plenty of cold enough temps in the 12Z GFS along with warmer temps that do not stick around for a long time and mid-week event has the LP trending south and colder...……..
  17. NEG NAO
    its also possible to end up with near normal snowfall for the month or above avg. snowfall...…….
  18. NEG NAO
    considering how unreliable the models have been recently
  19. NEG NAO
    The mid-week event is the system to monitor closely - the 540 line is east and south of us already before precip arrives - just have to get the track to go far enough south and east of us too - and get some dynamics working
  20. NEG NAO
  21. NEG NAO
    There is a chance the AO starts crashing towards neutral around mid month
  22. NEG NAO
    banter thread please
  23. NEG NAO
    Look whats coming down the pike right after that
  24. NEG NAO
    2018 2016 2015 2014 2011 - not bad for 1 decade
  25. NEG NAO
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