NEG NAO

Modoki La Nina years and snow totals at Central Park: 73-74 23.5 75-76 17.3 83-84 25.4 88-89 8.1 98-99 12.7 00- 01 35.0 08 -09 27.6 10 -11 61.9 16 -17 30.2

up and down the east coast ski resorts are doing well check out cams from Sugar Mountain North Carolina Sugar Mountain Resort Web Cams - Sugar Mountain Resort (skisugar.com)

Rain Rain and more rain - pattern does not support a frozen solution for most of NYC metro.................

1995 -96 is one of the top analogs for this upcoming winter.............75 inches of snow at Central Park............according to LC There are suspicions of a pattern change across North America as we head into late December. But I can assure you that any alteration in the 500MB longwave configuration will be slow, and be dependent on two factors. One is the active southern branch jet stream, which all of the numerical models are having trouble handling. The other is the potential for a sudden stratospheric warming event, which could have a "cascade/domino" effect on lower layers of teh atmosphere as we head into January. The subtropical jet stream has been a force in apparent weather in the U.S., with a surface temperature response quite unlike the "typical La Nina" calls that have dominated traditional and online media since November. Quite simply, we have seen a warm Canada and northern U.S. response, with colder than average readings common along and below 40 N Latitude. The various guidance formats use climatology in the equations, and the numerical model expectation of a very warm pattern continues to be at odds with readings that often fall lower than what can be expected for the season. This is why when you look at the monthly outlooks, they appear to be almost ablaze with record warmth across most, if not the entire, continent. Check the analog predictions as a balance. We are now down to ten usable comparison seasons, with 1995-96 and 2007-08 being the most similar. This set-up gives credence to teh idea that a shift to a colder outcome will occur in January, and keep going through February and March. The 10MB temperature and height forecasts are interesting because the reveal a sudden stratospheric warming over Siberia, with a re-alignment of the circumpolar vortex in a linear manner from eastern North America through much of Europe and western Russia. Keep in mind that the predictions and boundary layer response for this level fall often into uncertainty. And, that the eventual outcome from 500MB on down usually happens after about a two week delay. But if the December 21 panel verifies, then we will see a shift to a -AO/+PNA configuration by the second or third week of January. That would mean a more traditional, colder winter across the eastern two-thirds of North America. If the energy from the southern branch can interact with more profound digging troughs from Canada, it might make us forget some of those longer term predictions by the world agencies. There is hope, at least!

Central Park got 40.9 did you measure yours accurately ?

Anyone remember this one ? 17th anniversary this weekend. Snow and ice storm, December 5-6, 2003 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)

Is he a "Jersey Guy" ?

because you are under a heavy band of precip - dynamics at work .......

plus the follow up storm for the 8th is still on the table and colder air will be available - like that HP in southern Canada with some blocking

its still on the table chances are this storm won't get going till it moves north and only hits eastern maine and points north and east from 18Z NAM

If we don't get at least an event that is measurable this month that will be by accident IMO . Plenty of cold enough air available and the indicies are mostly favorable going forward and an active southern stream coming in our direction - the cold enough air at all levels and the southern moisture will eventually phase together in NYC metro most models have shown runs in recent days suggesting this after this week.....

Hope you are wrong............. Hoping for this:

it would have a better chance if it was later in the season BUT I agree with Anthony too close to the coast and the flow will be off the too warm ocean - need to move it east to have a chance and that if cold enough air is in place prior

You are discounting the 0Z EURO solution for this weekend ?

Looks good on those GFS ENS long rang charts now that you posted at 324 hours but what will actually verify could be different. With this pattern change in progress it is now becoming difficult to even predict what is going to happen at the surface this coming weekend as the EURO and the GFS are completely at odds with one another within 5 days

The 0Z CMC adds another possible scenario later this week - the system crossing the south later in the week stays south - colder air is drawn into the area and then another storm develops along the coast for early next week and the results are below !

0Z Euro can't decide what to do with next weekends coastal storm now very far south of us - yesterdays 12Z had it inland close to the area and run before that was also too far south and east

Good call Walt - 12Z Euro brought back next weekends storm

Euro stays so far south and east its basically no precip

The 0Z Euro says the 2nd low stays stays south of us and off the coast and the 06Z GFS has shifted south and east also

Can you expand on this ? Nothing showing up yet in guidance so far that would indicate any significant snow in the metro ..........

after reviewing the 12Z models so far - it looks like a toxic mix for us next week at least .............

This is extreme - this pattern will continue to deliver colder and colder air as we get into mid month if this is even right - 540 line all the way down into south FLA. Also an active storm track of both Miller A's and B's - chances are one of those SHOULD deliver for us IMO.

Going to be very difficult to determine how much snowfall we might get this winter if the La Nina is moderate since there have been only 4 moderate La Nina's since 1950. And 2 of them were complete opposites - 2011-12 with a total of 7.4 inches of snow at the park and 1995 -96 with the most snow on record with 75.6 inches. The other 2 are much different also 1955-56 had 33.5 and 1970-71 had 15.5. So in other words since a moderate La Nina hasn't happened very often its going to be difficult using it to try and determine total snowfall.....