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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    best outcome for us is if the MJO skedaddles into the COD and stays there for 2 months - let the -EPO and -WPO take control
  2. NEG NAO
    I'll believe this when I actually can measure it proof is in the pudding
  3. NEG NAO
  4. NEG NAO
    I didn't create this list - Joe Rao did - I will mention it too him next time we talk.
  5. NEG NAO
  6. NEG NAO
    why has the mid - long range thread turned into the banter thread with all the baseball posts ?
  7. NEG NAO
    this winter fits in perfectly with NYC climatology - it is normal to have a wide range of total snowfall amounts for any given year as evidenced here: https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
  8. NEG NAO
  9. NEG NAO
    EXPLAIN PLEASE - I ASKED WHAT THE ERROR RANGE IS
  10. NEG NAO
    ANYBODY KNOW WHAT THE ERROR RANGE IN MILES IS FOR THE GFS IS AT 72 HOURS ?
  11. NEG NAO
    now the 12 Z NAM shifted south and east
  12. NEG NAO
    longer days - sun angles etc.etc. - BUT SECS and MECS still possible to overcome the obstacles...……...1992 -1993 had even less snow prior to Feb 1 - then 10.7 in Feb and 11.9 in March for NYC
  13. NEG NAO
    a few years ago I would have been encouraged by him saying that - BUT the last few years - NO COMMENT
  14. NEG NAO
    this is interesting even though its still beyond the NAM more accurate range of < 60 hours
  15. NEG NAO
    this "event" looks more likely now IMO BUT looks like a mix of precip types at best at the coast - more frozen the farther inland you go where there is precip available
  16. NEG NAO
    really please explain
  17. NEG NAO
    12Z Ukie is in a good position but only 997 then deepens to 985 but precip is not making it past the coast
  18. NEG NAO
    the 12Z moves slightly west
  19. NEG NAO
    agree - this will be useful down the road
  20. NEG NAO
    UKIE to warm
  21. NEG NAO
    0Z CMC still east
  22. NEG NAO
    I doubt it shifts east again - I would think its going to be either side 50 -75 miles of where it is now and lock into that solution by late Wednesday when all the key players are onshore out west for better sampling …………..
  23. NEG NAO
    going to be interesting how the EURO reacts to whatever data is injected into it over the next couple of hours...…….
  24. NEG NAO
    need it below 985 in that green circle a weaker system wont be dynamic enough to create enough cold air to bring down to the lower layers - 850's are adequate - also it can snow if the surface is a couple degrees above 32 and accumulate if the intensity is strong enough has happened before.....
  25. NEG NAO
    this outcome would fit perfectly into this season
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